mississaugasnow

11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

GFS continues to look snowless. Would be remarkable if we go the entire rest of March and April without any winter storm. i don't think there is any winter that went snowless after mid Jan and that too coming off a snowless December. Outside of a weak clipper in mid Feb, it's been incredibly warm and snowless. @mississaugasnow Pretty much unheard of at our latitude. 

 

 

Weather networks spring forecast expects an active March but drying out April/May. Above normal temps. 

Toronto is at 19.1" on the season and should see 0.5-1" tonight. Hamilton is only around 13-14" on the season 

12 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I dont think Ive ever been a part and felt a 45/50 degree temp drop in less than 12 hours. I know the denver area has seen this numerous times.

You didnt get that last year during the christmas blizzard? Southern Ontario went from 40F and rain to -5F to 5F in 12 hours 

21 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

impressive

I’m going to say someone hits 85F in Missouri 

The next few weeks look pretty toasty. Currently 2nd least snowiest season at YYZ. Need 2" to get into 3rd 

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

No one cares about big dogs? We're all weather weenies and care about snow otherwise we wouldn't be on here. I didn't realize chicago was aided that much by the lake with GHD1. Regardless you'll come up with an excuse for why it happens everywhere else, EC, Missouri, Minneapolis, upper midwest.  We'll agree to disagree and move on because there's so much going on weather wise we don't want to clutter up this thread. 

Reached 60 here today with plenty of sun. Looks to be flirting with 50's and 60's most of next week too with only one day in the 30's. I guess this is the next best thing if we aren't gonna get snow with nothing close to accumulating snow on any part of the models. Obviously long ways to go but if we were gonna go a March without a legit snow, this looks like the best chance.

The older I get the less I actually care about snow lol. I'll gladly take a massive heat wave with 95-105 for days on end followed by severe storms. 

Toronto also doesnt really get big dogs so I don't grade my winters based on if we saw a 24" storm. Big storms that get hype here are generally 8-12" so thats considered a big dog to me. The 16-24" are historical storms so in a completely different league and not one I expect to see often. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Fall is one of my favorite times of year, So yes, a 1963 type torch would disgust me. But a 2012 type of march is pretty much one of the only things in weather where you are just asking for agricultural disaster. For things to bloom so advanced so early, freeze damage risk is huge. Most fruit crops are grown in rural areas where temps plummet on cold nights. So let's say you have a frosty 31° on April 28th in Detroit. It's probably 22° at Joe Blows orchard. The only two times I know of when things bloomed so ungodly early were 1945 & 2012, and each saw ruined crops due to freeze.

Yep, I agree that the agricultural impacts awful. Spring is up to SE Virginia and nearing the KY/TN line. The next two weeks should see it make some big gains north 

March Madness basketball and the first 60s (where I live) go hand in hand. Hearing the CBS jingle and seeing sun and 60F is amazing. 

Hopefully it's a much hotter summer here compared to last year. 

52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold. 

haha thats because you'd enjoy an April snowstorm. I find March 2012 interesting from a weather standpoint. Overall though I enjoy warm springs and hot summers. Im not a big fan of 30s in early May with wet snow the same way most here dont like 50s in January and sun. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Me too. Im definitely interested in the insistence of the CFS and Euro weeklies (though the weeklies have been awful) on mid-late March cold because that matches up extremely well to many strong El Nino Marches (warm first half/cold second half, often a snowstorm). If it happens it happens, if it doesnt it doesnt. But not going to avoid discussion of it because its not what the masses want.

 

El Nino or not, the amount of times we have seen a big mid to late March snowstorm after a mild winter is crazy. 

It would be interesting to see a late March snowstorm. A few aspects of this winter can be pretty much confirmed now. The lack of ice on the Great Lakes is guaranteed to be well below average and maybe even record breaking. A cold snap in mid-late march would need to be historic in duration and temperature departures for it to budge and even then im unsure. 

Snow is the next one but still too early to confirm that for GTA-Rochester-Syracuse-Boston. 

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The UP is a different ballgame, especially with their lake belts, terrain, etc, but for Detroit, if you REALLY want futility, everything has to go wrong, not just some things. Some examples would be a warm, wet Nino that turns cold, dry & suppressed. Or a wall to wall warm winter where the cold shots have little snow with them. Its futility for a reason. Anytime we get an undesirable winter, people talk futility. And its way worse after being spoiled rotton with a parade of record snow seasons from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s. Look at this season as a whole. December was horrible...doesnt mean Oct/Nov snow doesnt count. Yeah, winter was largely confined to 2 weeks in January. But we had a parade of snows, one after the other. It wasnt just a little 1 inch snow followed by 10 days of brutal cold. Plow drivers were putting in 100-hour weeks in that 10-day spell. That all count. Yesterdays snow didnt last a full day. It counts. And so does whatever happens the rest of the way.

It's interesting that your futility records are so low. Toronto, Rochester, Syracuse are still well within futility records. 

59 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

A few days of snow on the ground after going nearly a month without any snow on the ground during prime winter isn't going to change my perception about this winter. A 7-10 day cold shot in January which was preceded by top 5 warm Dec-early Jan and warmth since then, won't make this winter seem any better. It's been truly garbage from start to finish. 

Two back to back incredibly warm winters and the 4th warm winter in the last 5 years. And the only truly cold winters, the ones that featured more than a 2 week cold shot, since 2015-16 were 2017-18 and 2021-22. But even those two featured incredible warmth (Feb 2018 and Dec 2021). It's crazy how many warm winters we've seen lately. This stat is even more profound for areas further east and north. 

Ya, it wont change my grade by much. This winter will be a F 

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh wow I didn't realize you were still that low. Have you kept track of how many days you've had snow on the ground?

Yep, Im a big fan of snow on ground. 36 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground. The highlight was 15 in a row in mid January 

We didnt see as much melting as you guys yesterday. Grass is still covered here and a few squalls overnight helped. So Should be able to make it to Tuesday with snow on the ground 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was like a cloudburst of snow. It was wild. I was not expecting anything really, thought we would get rain. Got 2.0" here in basically an hour. DTW had 1.9". Looks like a general 1.5-2" in SE MI and more further north, though rates were probably hardest right in the heart of the metro. Huge flakes too. Its melty now, but was certainly fun while it lasted.

 

wow you guys just wont let Toronto catch up haha. You guys are somehow getting everything to go your way in a bad winter lol 

We should probably pass 2009-2010 20" lol 

The 24" starts to get interesting as does 26" 

2023-2024 winter leaves the least snowy winter of 2011-2012. Now at 19" on the year with todays 3" 

Hamilton and my backyard are now at 12" on the year. 

Reason I say that is because it seems like winter ends right at march 15th but that's not correct. Lots of 2-5" storms after March 15th 

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW.

March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0".

Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter.

 

There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

Yep, first half of March is still very much big winter storm potential. Seems at least for Toronto it seems to drop off very fast after mid March. I wonder if it makes sense to lower my threshold to 4". I wonder if 6" is too high for Mid March onwards 

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Locally only 3 storms of 6+ thev2nd half of March the past 30 years. We're due. 

Mar 20, 1996

Mar 25/26, 2002

Mar 21, 2008

 

 

Interesting that Toronto didnt get close to 6" for any of those. March 21st 2008 was 0".  Earlier that March (4th-9th) is when Toronto saw 12" within a 5 day span and lots of news articles about that. That must be what I was remembering about 08. 

In a winter like this I wouldnt mind 12" within a 5 day span haha. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

You mean in the last 10 years right? We have had some very good snowstorms in the second half of March historically here, and many of them were in decidedly subpar winters.

Do any in the last 20-25 years come to mind? 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

You mean in the last 10 years right? We have had some very good snowstorms in the second half of March historically here, and many of them were in decidedly subpar winters.

Yep, last 10. The previous 10 (2003-2013) I think had some good ones. Never mind. Just checked and not really then either lol. 

They do happen but counting on them isn’t the greatest odds 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Such a tough call. 

~Average snowfall from Feb 8th to end of season at DTW is 16.5" more.

~The most on record for that timeframe is 49.4" set in 1900; the least 2.7" set twice, in 1902 & 1969. 

~In 143 years of snow records, 41 years saw less than 10" with 102 seeing more than 10".

~Strong El Ninos often see the best snowstorm of the season in March and are often backloaded

~Average last measurable snow is April 17th, over 2 months away

 

While its a given that this winter will not be remembered with a smile, Id have to put odds at simply seeing a total accumulation between now and May of at least 10" at around 70%. 

Ya, it’s going to be interesting. Though in the last 10 seasons Toronto hasn’t recorded a 6” storm after March 15th. The April storm got close but was just a bit shy. Crazy that between March 15-31st Torontos biggest event has been around 4-5” (April I believe was 5.7”) 

@Snowstormsand @michsnowfreak

Whats the percentage you put at Toronto and Detroit seeing another 10" of snow this winter? 

10" more would push Toronto out of top 10 least snowy winter. 

Construction has resumed/started real early. Got the earliest email in my near decade of running my division asking if we have begun the 2024 season. Ill send back we dont resume for another 6 weeks still but crazy to see. 

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Hour 102 on todays 12z euro run perfectly illustrates why it's so hard for the detroit, indy corridor to get a big dog.  You got a strengthening low pressure system taking the perfect track, and then the coastal area steals the energy. This isn't the case with every storm and maybe not with this one but often If this low pressure was 200-400 miles west, it most likely wouldn't transfer and the chicago, grr, peoria corridor and points west could have the possibility of a big dog. Detroit is stuck in the middle of big dog territory. The only way detroit could cash in on 24+ is if there's a perfect phase of the N/S streams to our SE and even then still susceptible to a Miller B scenario. Once in a 100 year thing, sort of like major hurricane Ian hitting fort myers. Sure they've had a few over the years, but none like Ian that crawled along the coast giving them 7+ hours of surge/winds over 100.

Im already moving onto spring weather lol. Today was nice running in shorts. 

On 2/6/2024 at 11:38 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I mean I never said rates were crazy. Events with crazy rates like Feb 4, 2021 (3" in 1 hour) or Dec 19, 2008 (2-3"/hr for a few hrs) are not talked about because the snowfall total wasnt crazy/they were short events. So now lets criticize a 16.7" storm for only having 1"/hr rates for hours lol. 

 

I remember multiple storms with heavier rates than GHDII, but to have that much accumulation from 1 storm was impressive. 

That month was great but more for the deep snowpack for the month. GHDII was only a 9" storm here (Hamilton/west end GTA). But we had over 12" on the ground for almost the entire month and half the month had 16-20" snow depth (Hamilton) 

Toronto only got 5" from that storm but still had an impressive 6-8" on the ground for the entire month. 

6 minutes ago, Build Back Better Winters said:

Above average doesn’t automatically mean warm, if it’s due to mild lows and not warmer than normal highs I definitely think it’s fair to not call it a ‘warm’ spring,

Thats a tough one. I get what your saying but above average night lows in spring also helps gets the vegetation and green up started faster. 53F low 45F is better compared to 60F low 32F 

Im up at 5am in the spring so scrapping frost off my truck and freezing would mean it skews my perception as well lol