mississaugasnow

Tonight’s runs are a bit interesting. Lol this thread the needle type of event means I’ll be watching the thermometer and hoping everything pans out

on the plus side it’s keeping expectations in check since it’s a 50/50 chance this is a nothing storm 

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Based on the Rgem? Don't give your Canadian model THAT much credit... 

haha ya. It’s also been notoriously north the entire time 

Haha rain all the way to Toronto. Somehow one of the worst case scenario’s for me could play out. Rain washes away decent chunk of the 5-8” on the ground and the storm ends up being a mediocre 2-4” Alberta clipper. 
 

Only one set of runs but have to imagine Buffalo and EC are nervous they went with winter storm watches so early. 

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

If you're in Hamilton, there's a winter storm watch for you now - 10-12" of snow. 

Yep. Still hesitant, but I missed the January 17th storm so this could be my biggest if the year. 
 

GTA Mets are also torn on what’s going to happen. One of the weather network Mets thinking some freezing rain for Niagara is possible while another thinks suppression may win out. 
 

how much snow do you still have on the ground? 

Winter Storm Watch issued for Hamilton-Niagara for 8-12" 

Special weather statement for Toronto for 4-8" 

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow.  Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though.  But I agree in spirit.

Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive.

Im getting a bit more concerned with losing current snowpack and getting more rain. EC going nothing but rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday for me. 

I have 7" OTG and didnt expect so much rain to be forecasted. Unlikely it all washes away, my guess is I lose 3-4" and the rest will turn into a glacier. Also getting a bit nervous Ill be on the lower end of the 4-6" minimum I mentioned haha. Might end up right back at 7" OTG by friday morning so if you slept from today and woke up friday the snow depth wouldnt change haha 

19 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Will let this speak for itself.

Not often I have a chance for over 18" but Im also staying realistic. With so much in the air 4-6" would be alright as it stays looking like winter and builds on snowpack, 6-10" is happy and cant complain at all. Anything over 10" ill be pumped haha. Use this against me if I complain about getting 7" haha 

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Why can't we just get best snow to setup in the whole area from Lake Ontario to Binghamton and over to Albany with all of us in between? It's like there's either two options: Hedged north from Lake Ontario, or hedged south to south of the border.

Those storms are normally hybrids from Alberta/Colorado. Most times someone gets owned. Either Buffalo-Niagara are skimmed and Albany/Syracuse get good hit or Buffalo-Niagara get hit and Albany mixes/rains 

11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm a bit concerned about the southeast trend on a couple of the models, though, including the GFS and the Canadian.

Ya, weirdly im concerned about both. Wednesday has trended a bit warmer down here in the Hamilton-Niagara region. It will take a thread the needle event for 12" but im enjoying the tracking. I may be wrong but I think YYZ has 4-6" of new snow coming this week all but locked up. Issue for me is it just a winter weather travel advisory for 2-3" of slop Wednesday followed by 2-3" of powder Thursday. 

Should also mention I enjoy retaining snow packs haha. So we went from thinking this week would bring first 50s to the region in a while and obliterate the snow pack to upper 30s Tuesday, some light rain to begin followed by more snow. This should help create a glacier that will become tougher to melt in the coming days/weeks 

Cleveland and Buffalo have held off watches, I wonder if they add them this afternoon. Same for EC. 

Locally the weather network and a few news stations are starting to say 8-16" over 48 hours is becoming possible. 

@snowstormcanuck

minutes ago,  snowstormcanuck said: 

You think that's a risk here?

Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow.  Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream.  It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards.  It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins.

There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know.  But right now my money's on snow.

Expand  

Oh sorry not for GTA 

risk is a bit bigger for Niagara Falls Ontario/New York 

I meant back across Texas-WNY. Whoever is just south of the snow and that exact placement I don’t think we know until now casting. I can see a scenario where it’s snow in Buffalo but 15 miles SE it’s an Ice Storm 

11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

You think that's a risk here?

Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow.  Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream.  It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards.  It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins.

There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know.  But right now my money's on snow.

Oh sorry not for GTA 

risk is a bit bigger for Niagara Falls Ontario/New York 

I meant back across Texas-WNY. Whoever is just south of the snow and that exact placement I don’t think we know until now casting. I can see a scenario where it’s snow in Buffalo but 15 miles SE it’s an Ice Storm 

3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I still believe being fringed on the north side is more of a risk for us than any mixing issues.

I know we’re all talking snow amounts but I think the Ice signal for one of the bigger ice storms in a while may happen. That one will be tricky because it will come down to miles. Where does the cold front stall and how quick does the cold air bleed in 

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models.

Ya, Toronto and Hamilton has some room on the southern end. Buffalo-Cleveland along I-90 doesn’t have as much

Ya the models are all over the place. Imagine after all this time it ends up back to original rain storm haha 

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

This far out...prbably a bit hard to assess the potential, without seeing how deep the cold air is as the front slides through....but there certainly is an elevated risk,  based on some model depictions.

Its looking likely even if the trends are north that Buffalo-Niagara will be looking at a winter storm. Not sure now whether thats 6"+ or ice storm. But I think rain is almost off the table. 

Any idea when Buffalo would issue watches? With this high impact of a storm I wonder if they pull the trigger a shift earlier compared to normal 

Just now, brentrich said:

First call:

Buffalo - 21"

Rochester - 30"

Syracuse - 5"

Albany - 2"

trolling numbers but want to add Toronto for fun haha 

1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Watching from the sidelines on this one pains me .. In Florida next week

That was me two weeks ago when Toronto got smoked. I was down in Fort Myers and like today (Bills fan) I tried to pretend nothing was happening. But then I ended up tracking it and asking my parents in the city how much snow and asked my neighbour to send me pics of my driveway and truck (Just like I turned in to watch KC lose in OT!) 

Also if my neighbour didnt know I enjoyed weather he sure did when I asked for pictures of snow 

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Decent job showing the enhancement possibilities from Buf-SYR on a more suppressed track. It would be such a relief to not sweat P-type issues. 

Yikes suppressed would make this an almost non-event for GTHA. Sadly for model watching Im more of a far WNY guy and if CNY is getting a good storm normally means not much for Immediate border cities like Buffalo-Niagara Falls and the Canadian Niagara region. 

The global warming debate will go on for pages, with a potential winter storm not sure its worth it to debate it now lol 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY.

You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

Yep, Im the rare all year long poster. A bit less in the summer but I enjoy big time heat waves almost as much as big time snowstorms. 

Anyways back to the storm. Its starting to look decent for far WNY/GTHA. Im wondering how/when warnings or advisories become issued. Since it starts late Tuesday night-Friday morning is it one long winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory with a winter storm watch. 

Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

GHD I & II were fails at YYZ.  Third time's a charm.

the 2011 one stung the most. I was a student at Laurier then and the school pre emptively cancelled class and everyone was hyped. A mediocre 4-8" fell instead of the 12+ forecasted. That dry slot crushed the dreams of many haha 

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Definitely possible tomorrow given the snow will start across the SW late Tuesday.  I think with their baby the GGEM not playing ball we're going to get the cautious approach from EC.

Too early for accumulations but it would be pretty crazy to have two big time snowstorms in the same year. Not unheard of, but would push the winter grade to an A for me. I actually missed the storm two weeks ago so this could be the biggest storm of the year for me. 

6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Mad props to the GFS if its end up being right with how this storm evolves.  It put the EURO to shame with the 1/17 storm and it's attempting to do likewise here.

Im currently liking where we sit in GTHA. With regards to how the last event went I wonder if EC issues special weather statement tomorrow and watch Tuesday. 

Just posting in the lakes sub and truthfully wouldn't be upset if this ends up being a run of the mill storm for GTA/WNY of 3-6". A few days ago I thought I was about to lose the entire snowpack and torch with upper 40 to upper 50s. 

I will be a bit sour if we get nothing but a dusting