NavarreDon

https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/1956828865252172028?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Here’s a nice write up from MOB. This might be beneficial to newer/less tropical savvy forum members. Sorry for the length! .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing one. Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow from the invest begins. .

One of my best friends (now retired) was a flight surgeon and spent a good bit of time at NAS Pensacola. We will always have a piece of the Mnts in our hearts but we love living here. Thank you all for the kind words and letting me share my out of place posts in your thread! .

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1882145805613838512?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/iembot_mob/status/1882022996195389884?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Navarre FL 7.75” for a final tally. 16 degrees for the low this morning. Milton FL 20 miles north of me shattered the all time Florida record for snow with 8.8”. It’s been an event that I can’t wrap my head around! .

Good morning from the Panhandle of Florida Mnt & Foothill Peeps, we ended the event with 7.75” of snow & some drifts upwards of 16”. It’s currently 16 degrees. This has truly been a historic storm down this way. Records have been shattered from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Thank you for letting me share my excitement in your thread!!! .

Up to an astounding 7” here in Navarre & still snowing!!! Finding it hard to wrap my head around it. .

Last pics before dark of what has been one of the most surreal snow days of my life! 24 degrees and still snowing! .

Still puking!!! .

Still puking in Navarre, over 4” best I can tell with the wind. We have some 12” drifts. .

Come to Florida they said, it’ll be sunny & warm! 25 and this….yes I’m loving it. .

I’m butting in again, I’m just floored! When I think it can’t get harder it does. This is truly a once in a lifetime event for the Gulf Coast. .

Puking snow in the Panhandle of FL!!! .

Indeed!!! .

Double post

27.5 with this…. .

.

Light snow has commenced in Navarre FL!!! .

Sorry for barging in on this thread but you guys are my snow homies! Consider me stunned! https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1881744640015311354?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Temp 31 dew point 10, here at the beach in the FL Panhandle. 2”-5” is the forecast. Find it hard to believe but, we shall see! .

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system. .

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+! I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses…. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance, ...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the area Tuesday through Tuesday night... Overview: Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1 to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6" set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in 1895.

Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance! Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday. At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3 inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days. Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10 corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the next few days and to begin preparing for this event. .

Wowsers!!! If only…. .