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We are safe from severe for a while. However I love getting the thread going early and often! La Nina should get the South/Dixie going early and often as well. Plains would peter out if a quick transition to El Nino. It is all relative though. In the Plains even a BN severe May has opportunity. Last year is a good example. If one is flexible, I figure a good week will show up in May out in the Plains. I'm counting on it! Back here, looks quiet balance of January. We have cold snaps scheduled this weekend into early next week, and again at the end of the month and first of February if one believes the Weeklies. I figure the warmer middle and end of February (monthly forecast) would get severe going a little bit.

First, congratulations to all who enjoyed a rare big snow at the coast! Math, plus chemistry and physics if they offer it. Even something like Economics helps with the thought process of modeling a complex real world. CAD stands for cold air damming. It is when low level cold air banks up on the east side of the Appalachians. Look for surface high pressure to the northeast keeping a northeast or north wind fetch into the Carolinas. WAA aloft should not dislodge surface cold in that situation, but the surface high must keep pushing in cold air for winter precip. Retreating high press allows WAA at the surface and just regular rain. High resolution models are best, but all models still struggle with it. Finally CAD also occurs along other mountain ranges. The Rockies are notorious for the Plains. However it's normally snow not ice in the High Plains. There the challenge is how much to undercut MOS. Pacific Northwest can have nasty ice events when cold air drains down the Columbia River basin. It is not really CAD west of the mountains, but same principle.

Time to reflect on the eclipse again. It was only six weeks ago but feels like six years ago. If only so, thinking about 2024.. One friend went to the Ocoee River, for reasons I cannot quite fathom. While it may be a scenic play, I would never want to box in my horizon like that. Interestingly, an even bigger problem emerged from the cool water full of trout. Low clouds and fog developed overhead in the minutes before totality. I cannot imagine the sheer panic as air temps reached dewpoint, but I have heard other stories like it. Lake Baikal, Russia broke many hearts that way years ago. Water can help stabilize vs Cu, but avoid cold water! So, I recommend warm or mild bodies of water. When in doubt, don't get cute. Obviously choose a place with a good cloud forecast. Even without water cooling will mitigate risks from small Cu. South America has a total eclipse coming up on the Atacama Desert. Sounds great, but watch that cold ocean at the beach! I have no SA plans attm. April 2024 should be less complicated. Cloud forecasts should be driven more on the synoptic scale. Advantage of a USA eclipse is flexibility to move around if needed. Options have value!

Tuesday looks like a short window of opportunity in eastern SD and adjacent areas of southwest Minnesota. Though the NAM has amped up CAPE and LI, lapse rates may not be quite that high. However, a local area of excellent turning of wind with height is forecast. An isolated cell ahead of the line could get going along the boundary intersection with the polar front/dry line hybrid. Another option for rotation is early in the life cycle of the main line. SPC touches on rotation but seems somewhat of an after thought. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast through early to mid-afternoon. Quicker clearing would allow greater heating and perhaps more tornado risk.

Come tornado hell and high water. At any rate the Houston metro pretty much all reports 25-40 inches of rainfall through 9am Monday 28 Aug. I am thinking another 8-12 inches through Tuesday. I'm not as heavy as some forecasts because the really deep conveyor belt is off east. However Houston is not out of the woods. Deformation zone, which would be so fun in winter, is setting up shop over town. Like winter, rates will be less than the front conveyor. However like winter, rates will still be impressive. Don't be fooled by receding water. It will rise again even if not to new highs. Exception is down stream from Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. Some of the high-res models have Harvey lifting out on Wednesday, which would cut off rain before another 20 inches falls. Hoping and praying it is so. Board has members from Houston. We all wish they are safe.

Awesome! Saw that flare at 5 o'clock on the sun near the end of Totality but no photo (no attempt). Thought I remember a semi-loop thru binoculars, and it appears so. Thank you, I can confirm it is stored properly in long-term memory. As you saw in person it was really vivid hot pink/orange and even brighter than in the photo. We are all so lucky!

CORRECTION that is Regulus a bright massive star. Venus was visible this morning for the first time since Totality. Initial melancholy missing the eclipse, gives way to another burst of ecstatic memory. Adding to the song list. Personally I feel things strongly through music. Indescribable - Chris Tomlin (From the highest of highs... Mentions coolness of night, shocker he's from Texas, but yeah you know that eclipse coolness.) Your Love Awakens Me - Phil Wickham (I feel awake with inspiration and the song rocks!) Lion and the Lamb - Big Daddy Weave (Riding on a cloud.. I'm not big into prophesy or apocalypse, but this song bursts with melody!) Return to Innocence - Enigma (1993 follow-up to their bigger 1991 hit) We Found Love - Rihanna (yellow diamonds, [sun/moon] standing side by side, as your shadow crosses mine..) More [remix preferred] - Usher (He is from Chattanooga and we will travel for more in 2024.) Through the Never - Metallica (Arguably it's the best most intense astronomy song I know.) Lucky (in My Life) - Eiffel 65 (Blue was their bigger hit on a CD with space art, but Lucky is my eclipse song. Indeed it is a song of faith and gratitude.)

Sitting in Chattanooga 7-10 days ago I was considering alternate locations due to the forecast. By Day 5 hope began to mount that it could work in East Tenn. Then 2-3 days out I was thrilled to see our forecast way better than climatology, Wyoming climo! Memphis storm chasing partner elected to come this way a day out. We laughed at the irony because it's usually me heading west. Cloud forecasts, PW forecasts, 700/vv/RH forecasts, 925/850 mb wind direction, and climo (lower elevation) all pointed to the intersection of the centerline and the Tennessee River. Convenient! Lucky so close to home I could enjoy this with my family as well. We all rolled out uneventfully in the morning. Stopped in Decatur, Tenn to look at data. First Baptist Church of Decatur was kind enough to let us and some nice eclipse chasing families hang out, so we just stayed there. Scattered Cu evaporate about 30 minutes before Totality. Heat and humidity give way to pleasant weather. Cicadas start up a couple minutes before totality. Shadow bands dance on a white blanket somebody brought. Northwest sky turns Royal blue before a Navy blue paintbrush colors it even darker. Few seconds later the Cu on the horizon (Plateau) flips from white to grey. Almost immediately the shadow envelops us. Totality! I miss the diamond ring going in because the northwest horizon mesmerizes me. No regrets! My adrenaline peaks with shadow bands and the sky shadow. It's really happening! Look up at totality to witness God's second greatest gift to man. Bright ring around the moon fades to a dimmer yet radiant milk. Whiskers or cotton candy strands stretch out left and right. Adrenaline gives way to pure awe. Venus is hanging out with us too. Is this real? Am I one of those lucky people who travel to exotic destinations for a total solar eclipse? Well, yes, I'm right up the road with family and friends. 360 degree sunrise/set is incredible. High clouds outside the path are still white on the navy blue sky. Almost look like noctilucent clouds, but they are conventional cirrus. Quickly I remember solar flares are seen more easily through binoculars. Boom! Prominence is ejecting hot pink orange at 5 o'clock on the Sun. Not much totality left. Drop binoculars and observe the main show again. Navy blue button over the sun gives way to the corona cotton candy and whiskers. Oh my it is the sight of a lifetime! Standing there in denial after totality ends I remember how high I felt from 98% to totality. Maybe do it again, but nope. Where is that feeling now? We pack up our stuff and forget to take the group photo we were too preoccupied to do before totality. Pleasant surprise the car is cool inside, even the dash and steering wheel! That happens when 90% of the sun is blocked. We ride back to Chattanooga listening to an old Eiffel 65 song, Lucky in My Life. Blue is more famous but Lucky is perfect! Per the storm chasing tradition we get steak dinner in Chatty. We always talk about it but never do it. Get back late from storms. Rush out next day. Welp, Monday we had the steak dinner to celebrate the chase of all chases! Sweet Caroline by Neil Diamond comes on. His music always reminds me of my parents. Feels like they are in Chatty. Rarely is a day so special and nearly perfect on this Earth. Monday August 21, 2017 is a lifelong blessing. Total solar eclipse (TSE) is my #1 ranked spectacle. Aurora (northern lights) is a fairly close second because it lasts longer, but a TSE is more beautiful. Yosemite Valley and the Na Pali Coast are tied at #3 somewhat lagging a TSE and Aurora. Comets Hale-Bopp and Hyakutake are tied at a close #4. Real noctilucent clouds are #5. Tornadoes get honorable mention. You all know how passionate I am about tornadoes. Now, you know the rest of the story. I'm exceptionally lucky and blessed to have seen the whole list. Lucky (in My Life) by Eiffel 65 is a dance/pop song of faith by a usually secular group. Check it out on You Tube or Google.

Very nice! We were in Decatur, Tenn. My pix don't compare (no real effort) but that is what I remember seeing, down the road from Watts Bar. More reflection tomorrow. Blows the doors off tornado chasing. Indeed that's Mercury!

Final target: Etowah, Delano, Englewood, with Tellico Plains option for their big event. Last minute adjustments will be on Monday. HRRRX still pops Cu over the Plateau despite the eclipse in the model. It is notoriously too juicy, so probably won't verify, but we will not take the chance west side of the Great Valley. VIS today shows the east side of the Great Valley quite clear. What we saw at 1pm Central or 2pm Eastern Sunday should be the Cu field at the same time Monday. Then it will decrease slightly, so it really looks like a good day everywhere. East side of Valley is slightly favored though. High clouds are the other issue, more toward Kentucky, less toward the East Valley. Precip water minimum is forecast over our target area. No vertical velocity is forecast there. Little if any clouds are forecast for our target area. Many of us have waited years, even decades for this event. Time to relax and enjoy. Let cloud anxiety fade and be at peace knowing it will be a gorgeous day. Even if a small Cu blocks, chances are some corona pokes out. Wispy high cloud will still show the dramatic black disk over sun. Either scenario still offers sunrise/set every direction and bright stars/planets. Odds are really good it will be clear at those precious 2 minutes anyway. This may be my last forecast post for the event. Good luck to all! I am praying that everyone enjoys good weather and a spectacular eclipse. If there is anywhere faith and science meet, it is forecasting for the eclipse and certainly experiencing Totality.

People will show up in Tellico Plains later Sunday or Monday morning. I know it is 3 day event, and today sounds interesting too, but they will come! I am down to Lebanon, Tenn as a back-up. It is east of Nashville between two reservoirs and at a lower elevation, west of the Plateau. Missouri is dropped. Primary target remains the Tennessee Valley over here. Dayton remains favored (personal choice) with an option to move to Etowah on the other side, or anywhere we see fit. Tellico Plains sounds fun if traffic permits.. Lebanon seems to have lower Cu risk because Plateau stuff would tend to move east away from it. However, a few more high clouds are forecast that far north. Southern high clouds are greatly reduced on the progs. Tennessee Valley has lower high cloud risk. However Cu could move off the Plateau. Believe once we see HRRRX runs with the eclipse factored in, maybe this evening, the Valley will look a lot better. East side of Valley could escape that Plateau concern too, and I think any Smoky Mountain clouds would move east away from the Valley. Dayton is west side south of centerline crowd; Etowah to Tellico Plains is east side. If that HRRRX punts Plateau clouds it might be easier for me to get to Dayton than Etowah/TP from Chatty. We’ll see how I-75 and US-411 look. Really most areas, especially lower elevations look good. NWS at both Morristown and Nashville seems more optimistic than the graphics models. NWS has about 20% cloud cover. Tabular (hourly) forecasts look nice!

Euro introduces some mid-level clouds into my Chattanooga location now, coming from the Southeast. Hope it is not the dreaded jog north around 72 hours. Seems to hold most of the northern stream high clouds in Kentucky though. Meteorology favors the intersection of the totality centerline and the Tennessee River. GFS has mid-high clouds all over the place, and seems out of touch with pattern recognition. Kentucky high clouds, hopefully thin for them, are associated with modest westerlies aloft. Kentucky high clouds might break off as wisps into Tennessee, per the usual behavior south of westerlies. Southeast Coast mid-high clouds are with an easterly mid-level wave. Southeast clouds should have a sharper cut-off on their northwest side than the GFS is painting; hopefully that cutoff is down in Georgia not Tenn. Current progs show the best clear skies right on the centerline and the Tennessee River. The said area will of course be a total zoo with crowds, and is a slight shift from my initial meteorological target which was north of the center. Personal plans are still south of the centerline unless clouds chase me north toward the zoo. Avoiding crossing the centerline could help avoid traffic. Now the mesoscale presents a possible concern for the west side of the Great Tennessee Valley. NAM wants to pop TCu over the Plateau and roll it into the west side of the Valley. Might bust, hopefully, due to reduced solar insolation. While they plan to run the HRRR with an eclipse adjustment, the NAM is running on full sunshine. Anyway south winds at the surface would allow Plateau TCu under normal sun. Mid-level light westerlies are forecast which would push it east into the Valley. Again it might bust, hopefully. Meanwhile on the east side of the Valley, surface winds will be ever so slightly downslope off the Apps. TCu may pop over the Apps and definitely over the Blue Ridge. However those mid-level light westerlies would push cloud debris east. Therefore, it is possible the east side of the Great Valley is favored especially with lower PWs. Any synoptic mid-high clouds from the Southeast would of course destroy that forecast. West side of Valley is farther from the synoptic clouds but closer to possible Plateau TCu. East side of Valley may not have Cu problems, but must watch the synoptic clouds. If the PW forecast backs off just a bit south of I-24 I would feel better about the west side of the Valley. I keep mentioning west side because it keeps both I-75 and the centerline out of my travel path. Hoping to watch it from Dayton, Tenn. It is a personal preference. Tellico Plains, Etowah or Delano are east side of Valley backups. Apparently Tellico Plains is ready for a crowd. Right? If synoptic trouble comes from the south then we position farther north. Again meteorology looks best at the centerline and the Tennessee River. Watts Bar with a boat, baby!

Nashville NWS turned markedly more optimistic this package as 12Z guidance really dried out the column and PWs. Morristown got bullish this morning, issuing a forecast that is better than Nebraska climo. It is forecast time! Nashville and all of the Tennessee track should stay on the list of possibilities. We may get a lucky break with weak surface ridging and slightly rising 500 mb heights. Kentucky enjoys similar improvements to a point. None of this is a guarantee, but he region should stay on the short list.

Better than snow forecasts for sure! Even better than convection. Seriously, my main point was forecasting fair weather requires less precision than forecasting an exact storm track. However for an eclipse we need really good weather, so there are some nuances. Nashville is more optimistic this afternoon. Morristown already was this morning. I do not plan on any serious photography. Goal is to remember the event as best I can without fiddling. Photos do not work due to such ranges of light within the corona. Memory experts also recommend looking around, not just staring at the corona. Change what we are looking at every several to 20-30 seconds. Check the rest of the sky and look at the horizons for the 360 sunrise/set effect. Of course return to the corona main show often. I can still remember the Aurora and comets decades ago, like last night, no photos. This is going to blow the doors off anything we have ever seen! More tomorrow...

I feel oddly optimistic today, not because of the forecast but because I know it will be a wonderful day. The excitement is building and it is not empty hype. I am at peace whatever happens because it is going to be amazing no matter what. Primary target remains Kingston to Loudon. Meteorology is the same. However we have friends near Dayton, Tenn. Hoping to be able to do it from there but the forecast is still better on the north side of totality. Nashville NWS remains pessimistic. MRX strikes an optimistic tone, which makes sense with the forecasts. MRX even forecasts better than climo clouds and precip. MRX forecast is approaching better Nebraska climo. Love it! Eclipse is Day 5 and the models have nudged the boundary, clouds and scattered thundershowers just south of totality. In winter models like to go south about day 5 then back north. Please not this time. Thankfully expect less change in summer. Plus models show rising 500 heights. One can trust the 500 level pretty well. Bodies of water can help subdue Cu. Watts Bar Lake is great if you have a boat. Also the approaching deep partial phases should subdue Cu. We have building heights which should mean shallower than average Cu. Then partial phases can go to work from there. Now a few models have some high clouds. If the choice is between mid-high clouds and early Cu no rain, I would gamble* with Cu dissipating slightly. Mid-high clouds are not affected much by the actual eclipse (unless they are decreasing anyway). Cu should decrease as much as 30% in the partial phases. While the low-mid levels look drier north, the high cloud forecast must also be watched. Target is based on north being better at all levels. If high clouds are forecast north I might gamble* on the Cu farther south. Right now based on lower precipitable water and lower elevation, still favor Kingston-Loudon. If Crossville looks obviously drier despite elevation, might consider their Cu would decrease more. Again, all is subject to the high cloud forecast. * Gamble is a calculated risk in this instance, but gamble sounds more fun and exiting!

Previously I wrote.. Crossville is conditional on no orographic forcing. Crossville is on the relatively flat Plateau but be mindful of the wind direction. Just read Cu can drop off as much as 30% or more before Totality, which is more optimistic than my first thought. Works best on flat terrain or plains, where risk of any orographic forcing is low. Great Valley anyone? So, I am learning more on my lower elevation under lower precipitable water vs even flat Plateau. Still open to the latter, closer to that mid-level dry air. Probably be a day ahead decision based on high resolution convective allowing models. Finally the 30% cloud reduction works best on Cu, not stratus or mid-upper level clouds. Tellico Plains is below the mountains. Ridges are nearby but the town is in the valley. Will depend on wind direction at different levels. Low level winds could be upslope, downslope or neutral. Mid-level winds influence clouds forming on the mountains. High-res models should pick up on things a day or two ahead (over the weekend). I would not give up on Tellico Plains if you got a spot, unless the weather dictates a reposition. Synopic wx note: the 12Z model suite still favors Kingston to Loudon for a balance of 2 minutes goal, and lower moisture all levels of the atmo. More tomorrow..

Five days out, it is time for a preliminary target which is of course definitely subject to change. Crossville to Kingston to Ft Loudon, Tenn. and surrounding area. (not Kingsport out of totality!) First of all I prefer the Great Valley lower elevations. Climo is a slightly fewer clouds in the afternoon vs higher elevations. Morning climo low clouds is of no concern. Avoiding afternoon Cu is paramount. Crossville on the Plateau is just the opposite, but should be considered for different reasons. Now, where in the Great Valley, or go Crossville on the Plateau? Mesoscale details are still in flux, but here is what looks likely. Pool of higher theta-E air (hot/humid) will reside from I-24 south, so from Nashville to Chattanooga. Up the whole atmosphere, precipitable water will be greatest just south of I-24. Fortunately BNA precip water (in totality) is less than that of Chatty, which is not in totality anyway. Mid-levels may be fairly dry. It is hard to get at that forecast on free sites and I'm not sure if Pivotal has it. I get it from sounding forecasts (energy vendor) and the BNA NWS briefing slides. Anyway dry mid-levels could be a huge savior here. Cu building should be somewhat slowed by the partial phases blocking sunshine. Squashing effect is greater in drier air. Now the low levels will be a humid mess, but perhaps dry mid-levels will help as heating is reduced leading up to totality. I would expect all the benefits, luck, blessings, whatever you call it, to be best the farther northeast one goes (within totality) in the Tennessee River Valley. Surface dews should be lower. Precipitable water will be lower. Mid-levels are driest up that way. Another possibility is up near Crossville. Dry mid-levels may give a greater benefit. Elevation hurts on initial Cu but may help on squashing it thanks to more temp drop. Otherwise Kingston to Loudon Tenn. As for GA/SC, farther downstate SC might be better, but your location is already off the Escarpment (good 2 avoid clouds). Get away from the Blue Ridge or Coast, so central SC. Elevation disco is same as Tennessee above, lower is better. Except avoid sea level with the sea breeze. If an obvious lee trough develops, which would be downslope, then Hartwell to Anderson is golden!

KCMO area back through Nebraska has MCS risk, and it is too early to tell what time of day. However climo is night/morning. A lucky scenario would be subsidence behind any early MCS suppresses Cu. Then the partial phases keep Cu in check. Risk is lingering mid-level clouds. East Tennessee might edge out Nashville for a couple reasons. Lower elevations in the Tennessee Valley usually have slightly less Cu. Current NWP has a stationary front encroaching from the south, which must also be watched. North side of Totality in the Tennessee Valley (valley lower el.) is also farther from the said front (models verbatim). STL Carbondale Hopkinsville are kind of a crap shoot right now, anything from MCS hell to weak (but favorable) surface ridging. South Carolina depends on a boundary. Data and cell coverage will be awful to non-existent in Totality. We lose data on obvious dry line stakeouts. Everybody already knows the path of totality. So, I would not make target decisions based on cell networks. Forecast it right in the morning and use visuals for repositioning if needed. One could also call someone from a land-line for a nowcast.

Boundary drops in over the weekend, but might retreat back on Monday. 12Z runs have a trend of faster front in Fri/Sat vs Sat/Sun. Unfortunately they also retreat it back north faster on Monday. Regrettably the Euro followed the GFS. This is absurd in August! Considering the Plains. MCSs are possible overnights, but just get in the subsidence and clearing Monday. Of course I really prefer locally in East Tenn. This has to be the first time the board has wished to reel in fair weather, lol!

MJO forecast Jax posted previous page is verifying, despite my wishcast it would go away. Now, the goal is for it to pass on through, kind of like those charts had by eclipse week. The weeklies and ensembles also hint at a just-in-time regime change. But will it be in time? Ridge tries to build from the Southeast to the Midwest, but lifting out of the Southeast somewhat as the process evolves. Upper height weakness trapped over the Valley would not be favorable. Ideal solution would be for a surface ridge to slide down under rising heights. Chances are something in between, perhaps timing a front. Eclipse Day gets into the Euro Op starting next run. Should get a better idea over the weekend. Looking for fair weather should be easier than looking for a storm, allowing confidence to increase a few more days out compared to tracking a storm. However in this tricky pattern, might be a long several days trying to reel in fair skies.

Need to avoid a super-typhoon related forecast debacle and thermonuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Think that might mess up initialization? Seriously Super Typhoon Noru is hanging out south of Japan. Hopefully the Kelvin wave will stall and the CFS is wrong. Current regime is pretty good.

Most of the eclipse sites, including Great American Eclipse, Eclipse2017.org and NASA, recommend not fumbling around with cameras and equipment. Even with practice 'dry runs' the total eclipse time is too short and precious. Still risk missing it. Plus professionals and media will get pictures. Finally, we will remember it better just watching from the corona to the sunset/rise on all of the horizons. From personal experience I remember best events I did not photograph. Saw a nearly overhead Aurora (northern lights) in Jasper, Canada 25 years ago and I still remember it like last night. Couple brief tornadoes I failed to photograph are the ones I remember best in my mind. So, my only equipment will be ISO/CE eclipse glasses and a shadowbox/pinhole viewer.

Should not be a problem in August. That chart would hurt for the April 2024 eclipse, lol. In August the chart could mean moisture coming in from the Gulf, not good but not a wash-out. It could also turn out to be northwest flow at shorter summer wavelengths (MJO phase). Avoid the front day and post-frontal would be great. Third, how about a tropical system up the East Coast? We would have dry stable clear air over this way. At any rate, verbatim, does not look like a monster ridge. OK In August as we have other paths to fair skies.

Weeklies are out, and no clear ridge signal is noted for the US Southeast. If dews are above 70 TCu will form under a ridge anyway. Therefore, I am now rooting for a clean FROPA. Risk of post-frontal strato-cu is near zero in August. How is clear blue and 82/52? Plan to position early in the day, whether it is far away or here in East Tenn. Will bring water, food, eclipse glasses, shadowbox, sunscreen, a book, playing cards and perhaps a board game. It will be like waiting on the dry line, yet knowing the forecast for certain. No plans to photograph or bring special equipment. Blogs (probably rightly so) recommend just watching for total solar eclipse virgins. Media and professionals will have images later. Nobody will be able to capture the awe of it anyway. Big risk is losing costly seconds fumbling around with just a 2 to 2:30 minute event. Plus you'll remember better not photographing or tinkering. Tornadoes I remember in my head the best are ones I did not photograph. I also remember an aurora 25 years ago like it was yesterday - no photos. With that in mind, I will not attempt photography. Probably use my shadowbox or punched hole device for most of the partial stages. Break out my eclipse glasses for the diamond ring stages including a few minutes before and after totality. Plan to just watch totality with no special equipment. Corona should be the main show but apparently the horizons are quite interesting too. Look all over.

Euro weeklies now reach Eclipse Week, but it's week 6. Verbatim shows a broad ridge east of the Mississippi River the prior week. Tries to shift the ridge north during the week of Aug 21, which would open us up to easterly flow underneath - not good. Week 6 I'm not too worried yet. First let's see if this week 2-4 flip to hot is real and lasts another run. Then we can worry about the Great American Eclipse later.