nrgjeff

Modoki would be nice for winter enthusiasts. Models seem to warm up Nino 1 and 2 (less Modoki). We'll see; 1-2 are cold right now. Eight months out, hope is a legit forecast. We'll go Modoki El Nino.

Starting with the ECMWF weeklies yesterday, and through overnight modeling, the forecast has become noticeably more friendly to chasing interests. I'm almost giddy, but pinch myself because it is still the 6-15 day forecast. Weeks 2-3 could be good too if one believes the CFS weeklies. Euro weeklies back off; but, CFS has been better at sniffing out subtle ebbs and flows. Plus, you know, week 2-3 climo. Focus on the 6-15 day forecast, the following signals are noted. That awful cut-off low in the East Pac is starting to lift out. Still looking for central Pac convection to chill out. Please make way for a new Kelvin wave out of the IO, and favorable MJO. -AAM is forecast to hold on a little while longer. Some models flip to +AAM by week 3 which is not great; however, that late May climo... Next week timing has been all over the place. 24 hours ago I was thinking late week. Now both the GFS/Euro have storms going most days early week on the returning front (left over from Mother's Day) with a dry line too. Moderate SW flow over a boundary with CAPE, boy I wish that was not week out modelling. Verbatim things calm down May 19-ish but very subject to change. Reload May 21-ish? At any rate, it looks like the next 2-3 weeks are friendly to chase concerns. This weekend could still yield chase events; but, I try to wait until after Mother's Day for family. Good luck to all!

Next week looks more interesting, although forecast wind fields are currently pathetic. Might have a stationary boundary nearby with plenty of CAPE. Later into the season high CAPE can get things going, just the opposite of early season shear. If wind fields could strengthen just a bit, next week would be interesting. Heat ridge nearby makes winds a challenge. One or two days that go from the Plains all the way over here would not shock me. Tis the season in late May.

12Z GFS (Tue) resurrects some hope for Illinois Wednesday iff the slower front solution verifies. Euro is faster like the NAM. I infer the ICON is slower toward the GFS but I do not have complete ICON charts. Anyway we have all seen Illinois go from meh to yea! Morning rain is forecast, which is fine long as it gets on out. Outflow should remain. Previous forecasts looked like southern IL jungle. Now appears central/northern IL is in play, which is a world better terrain and roads. Again all this requires the CF hang back, not sweep through early. Slower CF would allow a DL-like feature, or at least pre-frontal trough, to get into central IL. Target would be its intersection with the the remnant outflow. Much needs to happen for the chasing scenario. Of course I wish all chasers and enthusiasts the best of luck to enjoy it safely and successfully.

Weeklies are starting to go that direction, a system digging into our region around mid-May. CFS hints; Euro due at 22:15Z. Whether wind shear and stability line up is a whole other set of questions. On the surface that's exciting news close to home, but it's a mess in the Plains. Short-term, Wednesday Illinois might have enough turning with height if morning storms leave and outflow and instability can return. Probably be messy though. Plus the Marginal into our neck of the woods is the hilly lush jungle of dueling banjos. Flat Delta looks too far west.

I pretty much agree with everything Quincy has above; however, I might not bite yet. Mother's Day chasing requires a particularly good setup to justify the loss of political capital at home. Looking toward May 16-18 the GFS just tried to resurrect the slow train wreck unfolding on Euro and Cad Ensembles. Trouble is WNW flow which would be OK in June but we're not quite there yet. Ensembles are a little more friendly toward May 21 but that is hour 360. MJO might finally lumber into a good phase toward Memorial Day, but that train keeps getting delayed. Despite early season troubles, I feel like it is OK to be picky. At the same time it might go nuts sooner.

My money is always on the Euro, but you know that. GFS can and does occasionally score coups though. 12Z Sunday GFS dropped all the wind shear but it could come back. Also I do not do indices that far out. Just looking at mandatory level charts (850/700/500/250). Turning is still there, considering WNW at 500 the SSW 850 would work. However speeds are totally AWOL. Still a few days out and CAPE will be there. We'll hope! PS. not trying to debate. I'm just watching like a hawk because my interests farther west keep getting delayed. Sigh... If I'm wrong, we can go chasing, Quincy too, and I'll pay all fuel.

I want to be bullish, but we can't even muster a Maginal today May 5. NWP verbatin wind fields are a mess Friday; but, it is May! If all else fails, Go Preds!

Could have been 60s dews with wind parallel to ridges. One would expect a little convergence on the ridges that way. Plus, as always, elevation.

CFS had a bad run as did the 00Z GFS. However the 06Z GFS came back around to Euro Ensembles. Consensus still looks good. Euro weeklies look good. Just hold on Thursday night, lol! Ensembles/clusters all point to increasing confidence week of May 14. Week of May 21 is likely on the table too. Well, also climo. Week of May 28 and first week of June have excellent climo. Cannot punt a season based on April, or one quiet 5-days in early May. 2018 is waking up, and I think the ruckus is just beginning!

Appears the SSW hangover is finished. In prep for my late May wishes, I gave mother nature copious amounts of Gatorade and one aspirin. Works like a charm! Pattern is still variable so I expect fronts through here into early June. However the background -AAM and MJO phases next few weeks are a warm east signal. Weeklies confirm Holston camping trip signal for the Plains trip, lol! Regarding soil moisture, April was AN rain but all at once. It has been dry for a couple weeks. January was also cool and dry. February was mild and stormy. Tee up a repeat!

Severe weather may return to the CONUS the week of May 14. My thoughts on the current week may be in Central/West, if they stop nitpicking each other. Our sub-forum region is so much better! MJO is forecast to return to a severe wx phase the middle of May. AAM should remain negative, another ingredient to leverage that MJO. Week 3 on both weeklies shows a new Pacific jet chipping away at the week 2 West ridge. End of Euro/Cad ensembles shows the new trough starting, GFS could be behind the curve. During week, 3 I expect a West trough and East ridge. Couple energy vendors are pretty confident about that pattern. Their concern is temperature. My concern is storms, lol! While the Plains dry line may be active the week of May 14, it's one of those deals where the warm front could be active well to the east, into our Tennessee Valley or Ohio Valley. Mid-May is the season for both to go at once.

I am reading about all kinds of trucking and shipping capacity shortages. Judging by I-24, all trucks are currently in use, lol! Fed Ex does not want to let shareholders know they botched the demand forecast, so they play the weather card. Predictable! Still, it's a good problem to have if in the business. My I-24 ground truth index also calls for stocks to recover later this year. Must get over the 10-yr interest rate tantrum first. I-24 tells me economic activity is vibrant. Earnings are strong too.

Regardless next week still looks fine upstairs. Challenge is to get the moisture. Wind direction and speed with height looks excellent. Looking ahead, at the weeklies and indices (MJO, AAM), looks like a lull the week of May 7. Of course in May a mesoscale accident is always possible, but appears another East trough will be in the wake of next week's action. Week of May 14 and/or May 21 could feature a new West trough. Much of that is based on indices. Weeklies have hints of new jet energy chipping away at the West ridge (from the May 7 week). Back when May was weeks 4-6 there was no reason to panic. Weekly's accuracy improves around week 3, and fortunately they now look a little more like late May climo.

For severe enthusiasts it would be nice to get warming in regions 1-2. Right now it's in 3. For next winter enthusiasts, yeah Nino 3.4 warm works.

Thanks @Blue Ridge for the report. I had put out a weekend statement for some clients. Good to know I was right, even if the weather was bad. MRX had great graphics too.

GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year. Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition.

One can safely assume is is GFS BS. Also means we do not have to fear a death SER anytime soon. Cheers! In the immediate term, looks like a mountain wave wind event tonight into Monday morning (Apr. 22-23). Well, it's something to track, lol..

Pattern may open the door for severe in our Region about a week into May, iff the system does not dig into a cold bowling ball. In May you'd think we'd have a warm sector! Ensembles have a system traversing the CONUS. Weekly charts have a warmer look week 2 but an East trough week 3. I infer the transition is our system; so, ensembles and weeklies are somewhat in sync. MJO is forecast to go into more favorable phases deeper into May if the GLAAM stays low/Nina which may be a tough forecast 3-4 weeks out. If the MJO forecast is right it could bring one more chance to the Southeast. However, the above signal shifts into the Plains late May. If either the MJO or AAM fail, May could revert back to the quiet cool regime.

Indeed -AO in summer is a hot signal for the Southeast. Great Lakes get the BN temps. However in summer everything is shifted north. Weakness over the Lakes puts ridging back over the SE. Yes a developing El Nino would rescue us somewhat from that fate. Let's hope. I am tired of winter but never a fan of a brutal summer. I know I know, we live in the South, lol!

Might be a narrow window of time for sups. It is the High Plains. Quality moisture is tardy; so, cells may become outflow dominant quickly and/or line out.

No reason to panic. I agree with Andy and Quincy it is quiet at the moment but it is also early. OK, you are down 12-4 in the opening minutes of a basketball game. Do you panic? Of course not! Sure the score is 3:1 but it is also only 8 points with over 30 minutes to play. We are in the first quarter NBA or first 5-8 minutes college. It's April 19. Relax and smoke some pot tomorrow. So the weeklies are bad. They are useful out to about 3 weeks in spring/fall. The only reason we have 4-6 weeks is for the depth of winter or peak of summer, gauging persistence or not. If not, do not use for reliable changes any time of year. Again in spring, do not worry about the 4-6 even if it is persistence. CFS dashboard seems quiet around May 7 considering what its own weekly chart shows. From the weekly chart I infer a southwest low. Probably not chase material, unidirectional bowling ball verbatim, but still a system. Can't forecast 3 weeks out, but one can cast doubt on the very quiet dashboard. Analogs include some very awful years, but analogs are just one tool which happen to average out things. One can have a low tornado count, with few systems and no big outbreaks, but still a couple sequences worth chasing. That might not assure local chasers, but a chase vacationer only needs one good sequence. If down 8 points with a minute to go, maybe panic like some people are now. However it is April 19 not May 19. While we lack evidence for an active season (trend, weeklies, analogs) we also lack evidence to give up (early, low 4-6 week skill). Just enjoy April 20 even without severe weather.

Saturday was such a dud. I figured it was not a chase day, obvious line of storms, but I was hoping for something a little more interesting to track. Only thunder was in the evening well after the initial band. April 22 now looks like rain not severe, perhaps cool rain again. Sigh.. First of May indeed a ridge followed by trough is forecast to track from the Plains through the Mississippi Valley. Approaching trough could gin up something in the Tennessee Valley; or, it could dig into a mean East trough and be cool. Too far out for details, but I'm continuing Jax's thoughts. Perhaps the system would be warmer in early May..

Enhanced Risk for North Alabama Saturday / tomorrow. Gee, it must be mid-April in Dixie! System will not have much directional shear at upper levels, but surface to mid-level (700 mb) turning is good. Plus we have decent CAPE near the peak of Dixie Alley season. That said, I expect a squall line with mainly straight wind. Models have shown glimmers of a wave along the front, or even meso-low, in Alabama. Such a feature would create a locally chasable target iff over decent terrain. Central Alabama won't work, but parts of North Bama would. North Alabama issue is possible midday rain stabilizing everything though. Atmosphere does not have that April feel. No outing is planned for me attm. Enjoying warm temps ahead of the front might be a better use of time. The April 22-ish storm is still on the models. Saturday (tomorrow) and 4/22 seem to take warmer tracks. Then the GFS 11-15 day goes back into March weather; and, Euro Ensembles plus both weeklies concur. Hopefully that dreadful late April forecast is wrong, esp in the wake of warmer systems. UPDATE (for Saturday): 1730Z SPC Day 2 uses stronger words/hatches. While CAMs have mean looking storms, LLJ 850/925 mb wind speed forecast is not particularly robust for this time of year. Direction is there 700 mb under, but not speed. Plus it's unidirectional farther up (though strong). A meso-feature and outflow would make up for all above deficiencies. Plus if no midday rain-out the CAPE instability will be there. Still no chase planned for me - a lot has to happen - but I will keep an eye on the mesoscale situation. UPDATE 2 for Saturday: Hello 12Z Euro (Fri) and your robust low level jet LLJ. OK, give me an outflow boundary Saturday and we might talk. OFB would be from morning/midday rain Middle Tenn that does not spread into Alabama. Still a big, we'll see, for me.

Weeklies don't commit to much weeks 4-6, but maybe the SSW hangover will end sometime in May. @Holston_River_Rambler and @Carvers Gap I think you got a handle on it. Sorry I was out of town a few days for a mix of learning and leisure. If a big system develops, like with any time of year, weeklies would probably not show a strong signal until it's within 3 weeks. I look for a few passing troughs everywhere in May - more progressive pattern. Might be mean ridge west mean trough east, but nothing like the lock-in attm. Progressive pattern would be more variable. In another thread @John1122 noted the Winter that could have been, except for the January drought. I concur. And we dreadfully wasted a late timed SSW!