IUsedToHateCold

My layman's understanding is that we don't want the low to phase too early or too strongly or else it will punch through the high and cut. If it holds back to the west that is more likely to happen.

Holy wow - I cannot believe this map because I've never seen temperatures like that around here. In my neck of the woods the lowest I've ever seen the temperature was 1 degree.

Based upon the snow climo around here, the Euro map looks pretty close to what I think will happen. NW of DC get 20+, my yard gets 12-14 with rime on top. I think high end we bump those totals up to 6 inches, low end we take 6 away and add a lot more sleet. I think higher end is more likely, but we'll probably end up close to the middle. Considering we haven't had an event like this in 10 years, just book it.

I agree. The whole solution seems fishy to me. Either the HP is weaker than originally forecast and the storm punches through (makes sense) or the model isn't accounting for it properly. And since it is the only model that seems to be overamping the system like this (outside of the Ukie yesterday) I just can't really worry about it.

The CMC is out on an island enjoying a cold drink. Just leave it alone.

It's the NAM outside of it's reliable range (if that is even a thing), right? I can't be worried with a 1042 High Pressure sitting right to the north. Next.

I feel like the recon data ingest is the last point where this can fail. If we get good modeling on the energy coming on shore and we're still good, then it's all systems go. I feel like the solutions where we flip to sleet in the east/southeast are probably right based upon past storms. I'd say the majority of major storms since I moved to the area in 2011 have been that way. If that doesn't happen we're probably ending up with less overall QPF as we end up with a weaker coastal or none at all. So it's like 10-14 inches or 14-20 inches plus sleet. I'll take the sleet any day. It's a good chance to go out and shovel since it doesn't accumulate fast and you can put salt down to melt it easily.

We await the King

The cliff jumping in here over the CMC is ridiculous. Icon and GFS already smoked us. The King will probably do the same (and yeah, I will always bend the knee for the Euro)

I lived in Charlotte for years - not a snowtown. Any run giving them that much snow should be tossed unless it's repeated and supported by the other models. TBH, I find it hard to believe that a suppressed solution is actually that strong. Usually suppressed solutions are *weaker* This is probably just the GFS being the GooFus. That said, that much snow for them would be absolutely crippling.

Yeah no thanks to the wind. With the way BGE has been around my neighborhood this year, a slight breeze knocks the power out.

After the past several years I can't really be too worried about a north trend - I've seen way too many systems get too suppressed and pound the south with a foot of snow while we smoke cirrus. To be honest I hope the setup doesn't allow for that this time. I'd rather see the Hoco-Moco bullseye than even a maximum in my yard, because that's how the big ones go.

I knew when I saw 200+ posts in an hour that we got smoked. It's going to be a fun week.

The official die roll for this event is 11 50/50 chance And yeah, I'd toss any solution that gives New Bern, NC 20 inches of snow until it becomes a repeat thing.

The thread, as well as the starter, makes or breaks the storm. We all know that.

I too am waiting for a 4 foot BECS. Instead, what I see are year after year of La Nina occasionally punctuated by an El Nino and a regular year. If I see one more BECS in my lifetime I might be lucky.

Finished up with about 0.25 in my yard - enough to give the grass and mulch a nice coating. The driveway even "caved" a bit. Was a nice two-day event. Could've been better, for sure, but at least we weren't expecting much and it wasn't a total fail. I'll roll the dice again in the future.

Light snow and 32. Maybe I could get a dusting out of this?

oh yeah I meant sleet. I got 0.1 sleet accumulation

34 and absolutely pouring sleet with the occasional flake mixed in

Woke up to 36 and snow/sleet mix

You know, considering that what we had a couple of days ago was nothing but white with a few dots of 0.1, I'll take it. At least someone is going to cash in.

Looking at that temp map I'd say well north and west. SE locations might get rates for a little while but it'll be falling on wet ground with temps at 35F. Hope I'm wrong.

Could the die roll have been on to something? Is this thing coming back?

The official die roll for this event is 13. chances = slightly higher than average