Terpeast

What's the ACE now? 82?

Is it better to put pavers in my backyard patio in the fall (really should start soon)... or wait until spring?

Thinking like this
 

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Gotta make sure you cut it low for snow season. 

We may have to if we want a snowfall that completely covers the grass this winter.

Just mowed my grass. 72 degrees felt hot. 

One more mow at the end of October… hopefully. 

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been living in MD since 2016. Every year I've had to mow in early December. If I can get a real autumn and end the mowing season this month, that'll be a win in my book.

Wow… where in MD? I’m on mobile so I can’t see locations. 

I grew up in Vienna/Oakton and I don’t remember ever having to mow in December. Maaaaybe early November in some of the mildest years. 

How things change.

41 here too. Good day for a a last mow.

Just checked my plants out on my deck. They’re wilted, if not already dead. 

Probably had frost the first cold night. (Was out of town for the weekend)

Dipped down to 34, but didn't see any frost. 

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

A bit of a stable blocking pattern setting up for the last half of the month if the GEFS is correct. A general +PNA/-NAO look. Fall weather galore, with maybe a good rain event via a coastal storm thrown in. I suppose another way to look at it is- what a damn waste in October. I will take it and hope it ends up having some persistence going forward into December.

Fine for now, but don’t want to see this in November. Need source region to get cold long enough

Does this look like we’re getting closer to a +pdo??

BWI: 11/4

IAD: 10/26

DCA: 11/4

RIC: 11/5

Max: 84 F

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

 

Good sign... in that it makes a 2011-12 repeat less likely.

Went out this afternoon, it felt hot compared to the last 5 days.

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the past 3 winters, this would be solid. Hope you're too warm for February!

Yeah, the weenie in me hopes I'm wrong about Feb. Only thing holding me back from bigger snowfall #s is 2011-12 being eerily similar

Finally see a streak of blue sky. Not something I’ve seen for 6 days

Okay here goes, back in the game. Dusting off my research skills and we'll see how it goes. 

Outlook is based on 2 things:

- Backward looking indicators using historical analogs for La Nina, +QBO, -PDO, -IOD, and high solar activity
- Forward looking indicators such as atlantic SSTs and wildcards like high stratosphere vapor content (Hunga Tonga)

My best analogs are:

- 2000-01 (no surprise)
- 2011-12
- 1985-86

I've also looked at 2017-18 and 2008-09, but didn't put a whole lot of weight on them. 

I was going to look at hurricane activity and years of low ACE, but I threw that out the window since things have been picking up in the atlantic.

My DFJ maps using my analogs:

Commentary:

I expect La Nina to maintain moderate through January and then weaken into March, when everything also trends neutral. This outlook also banks on a milder than normal November, then as the -IOD trends toward neutral, the winter will become milder (especially February) as we go on after a cold start.

Just based on these analogs alone, this is not supposed to be a productive winter. 

BUT... based on recent trends in the stratosphere and model forecasts, there's a chance that we may get a little bit of help from a negative -NAO if and whenever the pacific cooperates.

The opposing factor is high solar activity and +QBO, but we can have a decent winter despite those (e.g. 13-14 & 14-15). 

I don't see the entire eastern half of the CONUS being colder than normal, but stronger signal seems to be in the upper midwest and pacific northwest.

Also see a strong signal of above normal temps around the 4 corners in the west (as I expected).

I also think we go dry or near normal precip almost across the board, except maybe OH valley / midwest. 

And the part you're most interested in...

Mid-atlantic Snowfall

First, let's talk storm tracks.

I see primarily cutters and clippers, some suppressed tracks, and I expect more than a few miller Bs to blow up off the EC and drop the hammer on NYC & north. One of those may very well be historic. (NYC-Boston corridor - watch out, make sure your roofs are in good shape!)

As for this sub, I think slightly below average snowfall is the best we're gonna do. Unfortunately, there's a fair chance that we'll get a dud like 2011-12. 

I'm leaning towards a combo of 99-00/00-01 and maybe even a 85-86, which would be decent for us.

Snow Predictions: 

- DCA: 7-12"
- IAD: 9-15"
- BWI: 10-16"

Temp Predictions:

- Nov: +2
- Dec: -2
- Jan: -1
- Feb: +3
- Mar: 0

My inner weenie is rearing his head…

I had a dream last night.

It was nighttime. My family was playing with my toddler in our living room, near our bay window. 

Then I look down at my phone checking the weather, and we’re in the middle of a surprise advisory event. 

I look up and out the bay window, and our front yard is well lit and covered in snow. Not a ton, but just enough to cover the grass, 2 maybe 3 inches. It’s still snowing lightly, with very tiny pixie flakes. 

… then I woke up.

On 10/1/2022 at 9:32 AM, CAPE said:

Just bought this at Wegmans today. 

Drinking one tonight, perfect weather for this. 

Given how chilly it’s been lately, I almost want an above normal November to give the pattern a chance to reset and give us BN Dec-Jan

2.02” total, high 52

1.62”, 55 deg

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Unfortunately just two weeks after recovering from the flu, our 5-year-old brought home another virus from Kindergarten, what we now know was RSV. Our youngest has now been in the hospital since Friday and is on oxygen. He will most likely be spending his first birthday there.

If any of you have young children, stay safe. It’s really bad this year for some reason. I can’t believe everything that’s happened in just the last few weeks.

That’s scary, hope your youngest recovers quickly. 

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS….  Let’s hope this pattern repeats in the winter!!!

A local qpf max right over dc metro? Not something we see everyday. 

Really efficient rain producer. Radar returns are sporadic/clear, but it’s a drizzlard out there. 

Looks like 1” like most here.

Big af dry slot… I don’t like dry slots even in all rain events. 

Only time it’s good is when it cuts precip off just when a changeover happens

Another band incoming from SE