Terpeast

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

May need to turn the AC on overnight 

Am doing the same

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

What's the wind criteria for a leaf blizzard warning? 

Sustained 20-30 mph winds, reduced visibility to your own picket fence, with blowing and drifting.

Warm and breezy at 75. Beautiful day out at a pumpkin patch with the little ones. Enjoy it while it lasts

Just now, mattie g said:

I'd prefer 78-79 of the two. 

So would I, but didn’t want to raise my own expectations 

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

These two analogs have a snowier Feb. 

I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat. 

4 hours ago, yoda said:

FOX5 DC winter outlook

https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia

Reasonable, same basic idea as my outlook. Maybe a little too optimistic about the nina decaying as fast as they said it will.  

Yeah, the first 2 weeks is already sealed, imo. 

And imagine how cold the second half of novie has to get just to get us to average.

I expected a mild november, but not a torcher like this. 

But that’s ok. It’s all about timing here. 

8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

One of the greatest Winters, 1977-78 flipped late November. Of course we're talking a different era then. Would be nice to witness that again.

      The modern era the later seems to be the desired. 

Yeah, the problem with an early flip to cold is that when it flips back warm, it usually means an early end to the winter in this “new” climo

0.3” here. Radar looks like we’re done

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is always the dilemma with good patterns in late November and early December. It’s still more apt to produce cold rain due to climo. I like seeing a good pattern arrive closer to mid December. We often get a can-kick with pattern changes as models rush it, so if we torch for 10-14 days, then maybe we have some level of transition for another 2 weeks, maybe we can get something good to start December. 

Yep, a flip late nov would be too soon east of the blue ridge. Delay that a couple/few weeks, we’re golden

Low 32. Bit surprised to see frost everywhere, but this is probably the last time in a few weeks. 

The reds are really popping in Ashburn lately. 
 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

What you really don’t want to see in DJF:

 

If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying.

Then I go cold for Dec-Jan…

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEFS extended control.  Day 18, first inland threat period???

Only when it’s 384 hrs out, can we take it seriously 

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Surprising result at IAD and notice how winds were either calm or No sourthely component like  previous 33-34 overnight lows.

i predicted 10/22 for IAD

its going to be mild for a while with next cold push 11/3-11/7

 

 

 

 

I predicted 11/4-5 for the rest, while I was off for IAD by 5 days. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Relax. You’re good

Yeah I know. I was being facetious 

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CFS has his back, don't know if that helps his case.

 

How ironic would it be if I flew to TX on the 20th and missed this one

Maybe I woke up too late, but lighter and patchier frost this morning than yesterday. 

Don’t think I actually got down to freezing.

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Did all the stations come up short?

Yup

Think 33 is the lowest I got. There was frost this time. Everywhere. 

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful 

Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?

Skyline drive on Monday morning between 211 and Stony Man.

34 low, no frost. 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As the old saying goes" People hear want they want to hear"

Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.