Terpeast

Temp dropping again, 35.6. Should be close to flipping

Radar says I should be seeing very heavy precip, but it’s actually moderate. I think there’s some bright banding going on at 600-700 ft (I'm at 400')

Ra/sn mix with some sleet. 36.1

Now rain snow mix. Only could see it when I stick my arm out and I see wet flakes on my sleeve

36.3

Down to 36.9, still all rain in ashburn

After dropping fast, temp has been stuck at 37.5 the last 20 min

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was just about to quote my own post and say it does match up with CC. Rates probably assisting. Can’t be bad news I guess

I’m near you and I checked outside while under radar yellows, I didn’t observe any mixing

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ll go outside and check

Still rain, no mixing yet. 

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

mix has made it to south of sterling/ashburn, should transition soon for ppl over there

I’ll go outside and check

Down to 37.6

39.9. Falling like a rock

1.14” so far

Down to 41 already. Ashburn

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is promising

Yep, this is better. 

Down to 43.5. Seems colder earlier

47, raining. Wind from the NE. High was 58. 0.9” total so far  

I’m debating whether to set an alarm for this one. I’m in Ashburn - yea or nay?

both hrrr and euro has me at 1.5-2” total snowfall, but negligible snow depth

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m hearing that winter is canceled. Can anyone confirm?

Yeah, the whole board, not just this subforum, has punted the entire thing. 

It's December 10th, with a rain-to-snow scenario on our doorsteps from NC to Maine, and everyone seems to be capitulating.

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Run stops at 6am.

Is that HRRR 3k different from the HRRR on TT? Different outputs

With the way the radar is looking, I think there will be lots of haves and have nots with snow. I’m sure radar will fill in as the sfc low forms and moves up the coast, but it won’t be an area wide accumulation event most likely. 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I assume you mean the WRF-FV3?  I noticed it went the other way v the NAM.  Guess we will know soon when the global come in if the NAM was just a hiccup. NAMs are jumpy as F and cause so many early panics because they come out first each suite, that’s kinda unfortunate. If they came out last we would ignore all their tangents. 

No, I just meant the regular GFS. Was looking 12-18 hours ahead

Short range op GFS insistent on a more neg tilt while Euro has trended more neg the past 4 runs. 

3K NAM trended more neutral tilt in recent run, but its a meso model so not sure how much we should weight it on synoptic trends (probably none)

Rain, 55

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

At the very least end this drought.

Yup. This is a loaded STJ trained on us with plenty of ammo

Models doubling down, getting interesting. Tomorrow we’ll be in nowcast mode. Feels good to be tracking something before mid-dec

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Meh, too much time spent looking at uber LR models IMO.  Look at Monday - sort of popped up out of nowhere when we were led to believe December is being written off.  Yeah, it’s not a 6-8” storm, but early on in climo, I’m excited we have something to track.  YMMV.

It would be a big win to get an inch on the board in the middle of a lousy pattern early on!

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, 100% agree.  I don’t see any can kicking honestly.  

The mjo entry into 7 got can kicked though, maybe that’s why the weeklies are showing what they’re showing now. But it’s still early and no need to get concerned unless we pass xmas and the models keep pushing the pattern change back

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m legit curious what  NWS and NCEP prefer when making short range forecasts. But honestly given the inconsistency of all high res (especially the NAMs) I tend to still weight the GFS/Euro for giving me the general Synoptics then use common sense and the high res to get an idea what the meso scale features will look like.  But I apply those meso features to the GFS/Euros larger synoptic representation. I don’t trust the high res models at all for picking up trends wrt the larger features. 

Thats probably what the NWS offices do as well.