Terpeast

52 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

coming out with a forecast that calls for a warm and dry winter doesn't generate website hits and subscriptions...

Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why? 

Low of 35

49 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Great job ! I like 85-86. Been pondering that one for awhile. 

What’s interesting about that winter is that it was backloaded. Most of its snow came in Feb. Overall it was on the cold side though. 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

seasonal forecasting is a waste of time and nobody's good at it

Perhaps, but it’s fun. 

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not classic. Looks rather borderline imo and some forecasts have it going Positive. Also, those warm SST'S off the West Coast and GOA should aid in a + PNA.  

I saw that, but it’s not enough yet. 

I actually raised this a few weeks ago when ssts in central pac were trending cooler, but that large warm pool off the coast of japan is still keeping the PDO negative. 

Not as deeply negative as it has been, but still negative for now. I hope for our sub’s sake that it continues to trend toward neutral. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good job.

I like your analogs, but I'm not sure why you chose to disregard low ACE based on an increase in activity. We are still definitely low ACE.

I would also be careful about implying that this will be a bonafide moderate la nina because its struggling to even get there in terms of ONI.

I think Hunga Tonga is a wild card in terms of precip that needs to be considered.

Thanks, and you’re right about the low ACE. When I wrote this, the atlantic was pretty active so I figured that it would catch up… and then it died down after Ian. So I might go down another rabbit hole revisiting low ACE years to see if there any similarities, or if it could possibly throw my outlook off. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thanks for

the time put into this. I did see the word clippers in your write up. Clippers have been extinct since about 2015 I believe lol

This article points out a few examples of strong clippers with bigger than usual snowfalls in MN. 

worth noting most of the examples cited happened during nina years. Also that dec 28-29, 2000 was a precursor to the dec 30 blizzard that hit NYC. 

I see those kinds of systems happening again this winter. Doesn’t mean we (mid atlantic) will get anything out of those, so you do have a valid point.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/january-14-2022-super-clipper.html

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right.

   The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 

The PDO is still negative

About the 44 average high being +12 over what we need it to snow, it is not much more than 42 degrees, or +10, 30-50 some years ago.

Although 2 degrees can make a big difference in marginal events, let's remember that the delmarva coast had 3 or 4 bomb cyclone events that buried them in snow with blizzard conditions. Why weren't those 36 degree all-rain events, too?

Although I'm less excited about this upcoming winter, it's not all doom and gloom. Our time will come eventually.

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

LETS DO THIS wow

Strong signal for aleutian high and -PNA. Maybe a little help from a -NAO

54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Wait, I know this one.

If the forcing is where we want it, it won't last.

If the forcing is not where we want it, it is totally locked in. 

And it makes our sub cold in the spring and fall, but not winter. 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

But just because the forcing has set up in a certain place right now doesn't necessarily mean it will remain in the same place for the next five months...or does it?

That’s the million dollar question right there

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A lot of very bad info going around Twitter right now saying the PDO is positive…totally false. It is actually strongly negative and here’s why: 

 

Good tweet. But I do wonder about the trend. It was -2 not too long ago, and now it is only -1. Maybe it’s just a blip and will revert back, or maybe it continues toward neutral.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter.  I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing.  But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter.  

I share the same concerns. Best we're going to do is slightly below average snowfall and we get there with a storm that "breaks the rules" or threads the needle. We probably end up with even less. 

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't planning on revealing until my outlook. You'll see in a few weeks.

Fair. Just be aware that cropping an image raises more questions than you’re willing to answer right now. Just sayin’

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My concurrent analogs turned out decent for September.

 

Can you post an uncropped version of the second image please? I want to see which analog years you used to make that. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.

☝️

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, as of Oct 9. Doubt this adds much.

Hmm. Worth noting 2000 and 2011 were both Ninas, and had 119+ ACE. But 1985, also a nina, finished at only 88.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no?

Not that great. One decent snowstorm in Jan, plus a couple of nickel and dimers here and there. IAD finished with 12” on the season. 

8 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Nice signal for loading up on cold in the source region.

What's the ACE now? 82?

Is it better to put pavers in my backyard patio in the fall (really should start soon)... or wait until spring?

Thinking like this
 

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Gotta make sure you cut it low for snow season. 

We may have to if we want a snowfall that completely covers the grass this winter.

Just mowed my grass. 72 degrees felt hot. 

One more mow at the end of October… hopefully. 

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been living in MD since 2016. Every year I've had to mow in early December. If I can get a real autumn and end the mowing season this month, that'll be a win in my book.

Wow… where in MD? I’m on mobile so I can’t see locations. 

I grew up in Vienna/Oakton and I don’t remember ever having to mow in December. Maaaaybe early November in some of the mildest years. 

How things change.

41 here too. Good day for a a last mow.