Looks like a pretty special week coming up in NYC..
High temperatures from Tuesday into Thursday will average 15 to 25 degrees above normal. NBM box and whisker plots are generally around the 25th percentile for the max temperature forecast. The median (50th percentile), is right skewed, toward the warmer side of the guidance. The experimental NBM 5.0 is also a couple of degrees warmer than the operational. The warmer scenario seems plausible, and even has metro NE NJ Wednesday and Thursday around 90. This would be close to 30 degrees above normal and record breaking for a few of the climate sites (see climate section below). The records going into this timeframe are quite high, getting into the heat wave of 2002. Several climate sites from April 16-18, 2002, reached 90 or higher for 3 consecutive days. Don`t see thathappening at this time. Additionally, there is the potential for an even longer period of days with record high minimum temperatures.
CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures that could be reached:
April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024