gravitylover

Precip started as sleet here but changed to snow pellets about 15 minutes later. Wind appears to be from the ENE. The temp had held steady all day at 30/31 but popped to 34 a few minutes before precip started, back to 32 now.

32 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I am going on 55 yrs old ... since I sat on a metal milk box on my front stoop in Brooklyn in the 1970s watching cirrus and wind direction to predict the weather days in advance at the tender age of 10.

52. I did pretty much the same but being on the immediate south shore of LI watching the clouds was usually fruitless. Whenever we traveled out of the area I'd sit on the porch/deck/whatever and watch for hours. My family thought I was nuts.

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wow, a memory I had forgotten all about.  Also in mid 50's and I did the same thing.  Bundled up and sat on the metal milk box waiting for the clouds to move in and the first flakes to fall.

Life was simpler...no internet, you had to rely on the evening news, Accuweather discussions at 35 min after the hour,  a Radio Shack weather cube and the power of observation to try and figure out what was happening.  I'll bet 75% of the people on this board don't know what a milk box was used for.

Thanks for the memory!

I had one of those too! 

I didn't expect the precip to start as sleet but that's what I've got falling. Temp popped from 30/31 all afternoon to 34 just before it started.

Still cold and winds out of the NNE. Not feeling the wetness that's forecasted.

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Haha. That Flash Flood Watch is really the fat lady singing for this thread. Or is it the first rain drop?

3-6

2-4

Now 1-3

And there are a whole lot of people south and east of me

The ground is frozen so any rain that falls will run off creating flash floods. If there are a few inches of snow that also melt quickly with rising temps and rain there will be a lot of water running over the surface.

It's still below freezing here, never went above today. From what I've had a chance to look at in thinking 6-8 and a change to sleet unless the cold air to my NW stops pressing and allows a quick warm punch into the mid levels then the ice forecast (debacle) happens.

1 minute ago, DRVTS said:

OK gravity, Mahopac is in for....

1. 1-4 inches with 1inch sleet and a glaze
2. 4-8 possible, sleet and glaze
3. uncertain..consult the magic 8 ball..

anyway, with the warming trends, do you think heavy icing threat is in play?

 

I'm not feeling the warming trends. I do see some mid level warmth, always did, so expect an icy component. That worries me because after the storms and excessive wetness last year there are a lot of weak trees so I expect power problems. Usually that would just be an unpleasant hassle but with the super cold air behind this it could be dangerous. Even though I know better I keep hoping the cold air press will overwhelm the warm push and we won't see anything worse than sleet.

^^ Yeah it hurts to read the storm thread. Waffle waffle, I give up, crushed, this sux.... Pain.

We have a tree guy coming to take down a couple of leaners this morning before the storm. One that was bad got much worse recently and is now at about 25* towards the neighbors bedroom so it has to go. I don't have time to analyze so I'll just ask, which model is initializing closest to the actual storm center? Does its solution for later look reasonable? Snow, ice, sleet, what's the plan and what's the timing?

28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

It may be premature-but ensembles are heading this way...  WPC 357 PM QPF has about 3" of qpf the next week or so near I84 (sleet-snow zone?).  if this materializes, hopefully snow load is not a problem the end of next week,  or if its rain~ I-80 south, rivers and streams...  Interesting time ahead.  Just have to take these one at a time. Season total snowfall with the 0.8" this morning 11.3 in our southern part of Wantage NJ.  

Thanks for the heads up Walt. It's not exactly what I want to hear though ;)

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Exciting times ahead boys.  Sit back, relax, and have a cold one (or hot one). 

If you come to the interior thread we have margaritas and pina coladas flowing  

Less ice less ice

~.5". I didn't get out early enough and it had already begun melting and sublimating when I measured over .3".

Maybe .5. Looks nice though. 

5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live.

I prefer margaritas. 

8-12? 4-8 maybe before the frozen stuff. If, IF, some of the posters in the main storm thread are reading things right I guess it's possible the storm center stays far enough south and offshore to keep the winds favorable up here leading to the higher total snowfall numbers. That sounding JC posted though kind of show lower ratios, here I'm thinking even lower than that 7 or 8:1, 5 or 6 seem more likely. I'd like to see a sounding for Danbury.

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's definitely time for me to upgrade. With some of these storms the last several years having a smaller model is almost like doing it yourself. You mind if I ask what this one cost?

Also does anyone know what happened to Ulster? I haven't seem him post for months.

It was more like $1100 yesterday at my local HD.

7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I have the Ariens Deluxe-28. I think I've mentioned how little I use it though. I have a grand old time pushing snow around on my little Kubota without all the defenseless dendrites getting chopped to blazes.

A ride on is a strong consideration.  The dic is suggesting I don't use a push type mower this year so one the is a mower and can handle a blade or blower is what I'd want but not sure I can afford it right now and storing something that expensive outside kind of bugs me.

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I have the Ariens 921045 24" snowblower. This is my 3rd season with it. Works great.  Love it.

 

Yeah that's the one I liked best, the 24 Deluxe.  Glad to hear that you like it. The newest model has a clip that holds 2 shear pins so they're easily accessible, seems like a nice touch. I am curious about the Toro but based on how tough my Cub Cadet mower has been I think I'd lean that way.

I could almost see it if the bay was frozen and the ocean slushed over like last year. A sand bar that holds no heat at all would actually become a heat sink a few feet above sea level.

I think he means his uncles knowledge and experience. He has none

I keep thinking (hoping) I'll be out of here but it never happens. Now that I know my kids have at least a few more years of college and we need to be here to keep the costs in line my hopes have been dashed By the time I do get to move to the Lower Keys they'll be underwater. 

Haha no, when I said picked up I meant purchased. My wife did the lifting  

Ice, snow, rain aaaahhhhh  I just picked up 80 pounds of salt and 100 pounds of sand. Going to mix it 40/50 in 5 gallon buckets and put them at either end of the driveway. If I can't shovel at least we'll be able to move in and out.

I also just spent some time looking at snowblowers for the first time seriously rather than just in passing. There sure does seem to be a significant difference between Ariens and most others with Cub Cadet not too far behind. It also seems that 2 stage will be more cost effective and lower maintenance over time. Am I reading this right?

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not sure we've ever seen heavy rain with temps in the lower to mid 20's. I certainly cannot recall it previously. 

Try harder. It may not have happened in your backyard but it has several times 40-50 miles north of you.

53 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. 

The ground is already frozen 2" down up here. Any liquid precip will freeze instantly. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Looks like 10-14 for me.