gravitylover

It's ugly out there, easily .25" of ice and it's still raining. I'm disappointed in the neighbors that said they'd help clear the driveway then did theirs but ignored ours. 

Looks like I had ~4" before the flip to sleet. That brought it down to 3 and the heavy freezing rain I'm getting now has it down to 2, maybe a bit less. We've got transformers popping outside now. My power is still on but the next block over is dark. It's 30* and the ice is building quickly now

Even though it's been snowing for a few hours now it's barely accumulating. The wind has changed to the ESE with more of a southerly component than I'd like to see.

Snow pellets and grains now,no more sleet, temp is back down to 32.

I didn't expect the precip to start as sleet but that's what I've got falling. Temp popped from 30/31 all afternoon to 34 just before it started.

Still cold and winds out of the NNE. Not feeling the wetness that's forecasted.

1 minute ago, DRVTS said:

OK gravity, Mahopac is in for....

1. 1-4 inches with 1inch sleet and a glaze
2. 4-8 possible, sleet and glaze
3. uncertain..consult the magic 8 ball..

anyway, with the warming trends, do you think heavy icing threat is in play?

 

I'm not feeling the warming trends. I do see some mid level warmth, always did, so expect an icy component. That worries me because after the storms and excessive wetness last year there are a lot of weak trees so I expect power problems. Usually that would just be an unpleasant hassle but with the super cold air behind this it could be dangerous. Even though I know better I keep hoping the cold air press will overwhelm the warm push and we won't see anything worse than sleet.

^^ Yeah it hurts to read the storm thread. Waffle waffle, I give up, crushed, this sux.... Pain.

We have a tree guy coming to take down a couple of leaners this morning before the storm. One that was bad got much worse recently and is now at about 25* towards the neighbors bedroom so it has to go. I don't have time to analyze so I'll just ask, which model is initializing closest to the actual storm center? Does its solution for later look reasonable? Snow, ice, sleet, what's the plan and what's the timing?

Less ice less ice

Maybe .5. Looks nice though. 

5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live.

I prefer margaritas. 

8-12? 4-8 maybe before the frozen stuff. If, IF, some of the posters in the main storm thread are reading things right I guess it's possible the storm center stays far enough south and offshore to keep the winds favorable up here leading to the higher total snowfall numbers. That sounding JC posted though kind of show lower ratios, here I'm thinking even lower than that 7 or 8:1, 5 or 6 seem more likely. I'd like to see a sounding for Danbury.

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's definitely time for me to upgrade. With some of these storms the last several years having a smaller model is almost like doing it yourself. You mind if I ask what this one cost?

Also does anyone know what happened to Ulster? I haven't seem him post for months.

It was more like $1100 yesterday at my local HD.

7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I have the Ariens Deluxe-28. I think I've mentioned how little I use it though. I have a grand old time pushing snow around on my little Kubota without all the defenseless dendrites getting chopped to blazes.

A ride on is a strong consideration.  The dic is suggesting I don't use a push type mower this year so one the is a mower and can handle a blade or blower is what I'd want but not sure I can afford it right now and storing something that expensive outside kind of bugs me.

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I have the Ariens 921045 24" snowblower. This is my 3rd season with it. Works great.  Love it.

 

Yeah that's the one I liked best, the 24 Deluxe.  Glad to hear that you like it. The newest model has a clip that holds 2 shear pins so they're easily accessible, seems like a nice touch. I am curious about the Toro but based on how tough my Cub Cadet mower has been I think I'd lean that way.

I could almost see it if the bay was frozen and the ocean slushed over like last year. A sand bar that holds no heat at all would actually become a heat sink a few feet above sea level.

Haha no, when I said picked up I meant purchased. My wife did the lifting  

Ice, snow, rain aaaahhhhh  I just picked up 80 pounds of salt and 100 pounds of sand. Going to mix it 40/50 in 5 gallon buckets and put them at either end of the driveway. If I can't shovel at least we'll be able to move in and out.

I also just spent some time looking at snowblowers for the first time seriously rather than just in passing. There sure does seem to be a significant difference between Ariens and most others with Cub Cadet not too far behind. It also seems that 2 stage will be more cost effective and lower maintenance over time. Am I reading this right?

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

Now if you want to go visit Donner Pass instead...

When I lived in Tahoe forecasts like that were pretty common for about 7 weeks. Those periods were awesome. 

45 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Im leaving the area for the morning so i dont have to deal with the traffic lol

I hope you have your shovel ready for this weekend

I didn't realize the eclipse on Sunday night is also a super blood wolf moon. Hopefully a good viewing window will open and it won't be unpleasantly cold out.

Check this out 

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take it if it means nice calm boring weather the 24th-26th, flying out the 26th morning. If that comes true ill go shovel his driveway lol

I'm going to hold you to that.

At the moment it looks really good out there. Have fun dude!

6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Winter ‘19-‘20 is gonna rock!  We’re skipping this winter to allow @gravitylover to recover. 

You da man