tavwtby

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stop using 10 to 1 maps

thank you

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@tavwtbywhat did you end up with?

Friday? 1.4"... funny though, just a couple miles away had 3+, up on top of east main in Torrington got double what I got, very odd little microclimate up here I've found

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet. 

I'd definitely love that outcome, just haven't felt more than a foot, for reasons I mentioned last post, temps are a big problem, if this can phase in the right location, and rip a hole in the atmosphere maybe we can get some adiabatic cooling to overcome that, but that is a big if.

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)***

Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. 

more in line with what I have been thinking all along, too many uncertain variables, mainly temps, the lack of a strong high in Quebec is a key, phasing is also key, who knows can always go up, but I'd hedge down if anything right now.

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree this will likely change… unless anticipating further east all happens after 8pm Tuesday, and guidance has trended later with the further east captures 

a little more on par for what I was thinking for mby, but ALY has me at 18-24, I thought the three stations were going to collaborate with the snow maps, after the debacle a few years ago, I think the box map is what shows all of SNE, no? but I'd be shocked if we get more than a foot here and BDL gets like 2-4, that is a sick gradient... although, I got 1.4 this morning and just up the hill a bit they got close to 4

Albany going big with watches 1-2 feet... sorry I don't see that happening, maybe we get to a foot if all breaks right, sticking with 8-12 here though, and with temps that may be a stretch

well it's official, this season is now second worst, I need 8" now to surpass I think 5 seasons that are all around 36/37", 11 to hit almost half season climo... hopefully Mon Tues delivery goods

initial thought was 8-12 for mby, until I see different, going to stick with, can always go up..of course can always bust Low too

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

925s are torched for many . Def take the lower end for many verbatim on that run .. looks like a change over after 8am Tuesday around here. 

I'll still take it here, won't take much to push that south some, thought I saw 850 temps for all of CT below 0C, no?

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

My family… “Ryan my phone says we’re getting rain, what are you talking about?!” 

yeah I get that alot, even though I've been avidly following weather, models and the experience of some on this forum to aid in prognostication, and more often than not am right, still mostly my in laws tell me what the "news" said...hard to argue h5 evolution, teleconectors and ensemble members, etc ,when that's a different language for most

approaching 1.5" with increasing snow, lulled for a while this morning vis is coming down under a mile, not sure how long this will last, or if we even get additional accumulation

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

And unlike other wx phenomena that I am awed by, snow can totally transform a landscape for the “good”. There is nothing like it. 
 

 

hands down my favorite, love all aspects of weather but yeah, something about how snow transforms the yuck winter landscape of brown and lack of color is amazing. I recall when we were kids just walking around, staying out in snowstorms until nearly frostbitten, I distinctly remember the April noreaster in 82, third grade spring break, almost getting frost bite from being out in it, good times!

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

The new Nam looks more realistic now. 3-5" in Litchfield County, 1-3 for most, south of there....

I doubt that even occurs, knew it would start as rain, but we're wasting a lot of precip waiting for colder air, and there ain't much of it around...can see some convection going on off NJ coast, so perhaps the transfer will draw some cold air down

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because heavy snow is the only thing in this world that still affords me the opportunity to experience the very same youthful exuberance that I did as a  child. So few adults in this world have something that allows that,  and when you do, cherish it for life bc it's a gift.

absolutely, love some snow, especially the big storms, air feels fresh, and I love cleaning it along with playing in it with the kids... still one of my favorite things is to take a walk during a heavy snow

we mix... mostly rain but some snow in there, we hope...all I need is an inch to break the tie with 15-16 as all time rat

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Elevation 

980

down to 36/30, wet bulb around 28, still nothing falling out there

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's coming. All frustrations of this winter will come to an end Monday/Tuesday. 

Then we can all look forward to and embrace 90's with deep humidity

I'll be embracing that next weekend,,HA...but seriously, whatever this delivers, it will be a nice storm to watch develop it looks like.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A ton of moisture to deal with .8-1.2” of precip across much of western ct. However the warm temps have me shook a bit . Hopefully we can cash in on at least half of this as accumulating snow. What a waste of half the storm though.  Looks like an impressive band develops after midnight and pivots over us as temps cool enough for all snow everywhere and that’s when we really accumulate between the midnight and 6am timeframe. 

like I said before, good thing this falls after sun sets, maybe we can get enough heavy rates to overcome, I think it starts as rain anyway and we wetbulb, you probably in a good spot there for a 6er

not that it means anything at this range, but GFS sniffing out another stout sig around the 22nd, course I'll be gone, but nothing on euro. I just want smooth driving down to Florida, no rain/snow etc

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s more like 20” + odds with about 4” coming tonight from that map . 
 

check this weenie map out everyone’s  90th percentile outcome lol 

that is tasty, nice little present before I head to the land of exactly the same weather and landscape every day...

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem still looks pretty ugly. I’ll bet GGEM comes in running into SNE again. 

looks right over orh at hr120...we toss?

30 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You're right, I don't have your memory, that was a great stretch. Nice hard crust on top and my pup running across the top, was great.

I think that may have been the best stretch for me Jan 2011, just the biggest pack I ever had, I think I topped at 38", and that was Waterbury! roof rakes flying off shelves

and we just missed the Feb 2nd deal...also, digging a path for the oil guy was like seeing fossil rock formations from different storms, with dog poop under like 3' towards the road it was like 6' from plows, crazy stretch

good thing it's falling at night, good rates and lack of sun might be the only saving grace here for accumulating snow

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

yeah!! so your saying there's a chance!!!