tavwtby

Just now, weathafella said:

It seems the whiff likelihood is extremely low.

yeah some concerns now on ptype, still a good look at this lead

canal runner?

ALY likes the Euro solution, still saying everything on the table still, but leaning towards Euro for this, seeing how it's the best placement, I'll take...WU has upped whatever they use, from 4" to 9" in just a few hours

I'll take a 2-4" with this one and if I can pull 8-12 on Mon I'll be happy before I bounced back to Florida for a month, if I get more even better, if I can break 40 on the season, that's nearly half way to climo here, so not as bad as 27.5"...

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re in a great spot. Jelly.

just hope it holds, I have more confidence in this than anything else this winter, I can say that

I think the fact we are now ~5 days from go and it's still relatively been steadfast across all suites is a plus this season... just hold serve and I believe most on the forum will cash in on something

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With what the pro’s have alluded to, I don’t mind the SE members at this stage. 

yeah I'll take it, seems to me that there's a few more members out to sea that run, but majority of them seem to be tightening up just off the coast, other than a couple overhead members that is a good look

still a lot of members way SE, but a nice cluster near the cape I take

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if you count both Mar/Apr 1997 it was around 45”. It kind of had a similar end of the season feel to it. The pattern got a lot better in March and we got some snow events but you always felt like you should’ve had a bigger one. Then when it seemed we had wasted the chance for more (there was a blown Winter storm warning on 3/23 I think) and everyone is moving into spring, the 3/31-4/1 storm happens. 

yeah, what made 96-97 worse, until March anyway, was we were coming off a historic winter in 95-96, where it seemed we were getting 3-6/4-8 every three days or so, but I remember a good cold spell in 97, or am I mistaken?

my hope is for a calm period along the east coast from the 17th to 19th as I travel back to Florida, hopefully can squeeze out a good one next week and then I'll welcome spring when I return!

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not much there to think a coastal can run into western SNE based on this setup . The block and next impulse out west should keep it either CC or east 

I'll take a canal runner, although bad for eastern areas, my area has always done well with those, I'll also take a 4/97 redux, I had 18 in naugy at the time, but remember traveling to orh for work that day and was amazed how much was otg, iirc it was a blue bomb too, no?

2 minutes ago, klw said:

The Hurricane hunter recon plane, Boss, the Hurricane hunter recon plane!

they'll be Dropsonde spitting for a BM bomb... do they actually do drops for non tropical events? I don't recall

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea its a lot of work but fun, i agree. When the winters over im gonna make a bunch of them with different stats using the graphics that i normally do for this winter

I spend a good part of my job taking data acquisition in various forms and deducing it to present in test reports, so I don't mind it at all, best is I get to spot seasonal trends in the data, and being a big pattern recognition guy, that satisfies me, ha!

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some futility stats across the region...hopefully no errors this time but let me know.

Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record

ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A

ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A

BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A

BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A

PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A

BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" 

LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A

NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6"

JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A

ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

 

 

love these stats, I've been slowly in spare time pouring over the data from just my area, dating back to 1897, and putting together plots for all parameters, almost feels like work, reducing data into readable format charts and graphs etc, fun though...

nothing would please us more than a slow moving, region wide dumper, I'll be happy with this winter if it ended with a solid double digit, crawler with snow for days and wind, yore! they are a bunch of sub 980 lows in that cluster

wow, went from hope to surpass at least 35" down the stretch to possibly nothing but cirrus, hope next week at least can deliver a few inches to get over 30 on the season, good grief

despite the nice 50 degree day once sun came out, still have a good 90% of the ground covered...doubt it lasts with any more days like this, it was beautiful this afternoon...

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

iirc, they went right into April, out east was getting hammered with each one too, I think one of those I had hours of sugar while it dumped inches to knees east

also, I got almost half my season total from 2/17 on that year, great second half

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes 18 was super active.  We had one good one here. The first was windy rain here, the second was a good one.  And the third shit the bed here in the west, but buried them out east of the river(shocker righ). And then there was even one more that was a dud for the most part too here..a few sloppy inches. But they were lined up that March in 18. 

iirc, they went right into April, out east was getting hammered with each one too, I think one of those I had hours of sugar while it dumped inches to knees east

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Mar 2nd and Mar 3-4th 2019. At least here. We had a 3-6er little critter, then 36 hours later we had the 10-15 4"/hr wet snow overnight bomb. 

yeah that's it.  was just looking at the archives, in March of 18, we had a couple doozies between the 7 and 13th, but the 2019 ones is what I was thinking about

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There were in 56.  One moderate and one blockbuster.

didn't we also have something similar in March of 18? a smaller event followed by a bigger event a couple days later? I may be wrong on the year but it was within the last few years

since moving up to Winsted from Waterbury in 13, we've had 4 seasons below 50", avg here dating back before 1900, is 83" but the avg since I've been here is 60", and that's including 3 above average winters...if I exclude 15-16, 18-19, 19-20, and 20-21, it's right at avg. That said, I need 8" more down the stretch to beat 15-16,  19-20, 1898-99, and 1912-13, as the bottom dwelling winters, sorry for the winded post, but in short, I think it's achievable by the looks of things

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you and runnaway are the only ones who get our old school references. 

the synchronicities that happen in my life lately are insane...was just talking about this song with an old friend we used to make fun of with this song, so how often in the past 30 years has this song come up, now twice in a day.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def some 1888 vibes starting to percolate with this 

yore!

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

that hurts...see what I did there