Eduardo

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just keep expectations a little tempered because both 95-96 and 10-11 were la ninas after el ninos.

 

Yeah I’m def not saying we should be thinking about a redux.  Just making the broader point (which @brooklynwx99 made much better) that a -PNA can work with a solid ATL-side block.

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how can you see that block and not get a little excited 

Lol it’s a funny psychological phenomenon. We’ve become so accustomed to disappointment these past few years that we keep expectations tempered as some sort of defense mechanism.

Forky honkage usually portends good things though. :-)

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t like all those deep blues off the west coast on the ensembles 

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Had same thing in 2010, so we can overcome with the right track and strength.

95–96 too IIRC.  Enough ATL side blocking can offset a crappy PAC.  Here is to hoping! 

On 11/26/2022 at 5:11 AM, LibertyBell said:

93-94 and 95-96 definitely were great and not boring

Valid point, but they were (spectacular) diamonds in the rough.  Crossing my fingers that we have one of those on tap.  We could be in for some fun if this stout -NAO develops as-advertised.  

I still am not liking this PAC-pukey, seemingly semi-permanent Niña background state we’ve dealt with these past few years.  Need to dislodge that ASAP.

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

My man, haven’t you been harping about the raging Niña since what feels like forever?  Now you all of a sudden think there’s no tendency for a SE ridge?

Yeah I hate to say it, but I’m not really feeling this pattern at all.  Might be time to close the shades until mid Dec, at least.

Almost feels like we’re in the middle of a 90s-style string of boring winters right now.

1 minute ago, AChilders said:

FL and GA landfalls

Looks roughly like where Charley hit, no?

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

thunderstorm here in manhattan

Saw some lightning, but radar makes it seem like there’s some kinda forcefield around Manhattan.

10 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Another CI miss:

Was pouring on a rerouted Q-train coming across the Manhattan Bridge. Nearing CI now and the sun’s peaking through.  Def isolated precip today.

Kinda underwhelming here on Roosevelt Island.  Some nice, soaking rain and a few decent lightning strikes over Manhattan, but nothing crazy.

Just some soaking rain and thunder on Roosevelt Island.  Nothing crazy, but might cool things down some.  Sun already starting to peek back out!

Kinda nuts how several rounds of action stayed just to my west and north.  Was actually able to see the black clouds and rain over Manhattan from my (Roosevelt Island) apartment, but we really just had one two-minute downpour and a few extra drops here and there today.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The models playing catch-up and getting stronger with the Niña as we get closer in time to fall….shades of the last 2 summers: 

 

As a cold and snow lover, I massively dislike this trend, but it’s kinda tough to bet against it right now.  Since the super Niño, we seem to have established a weak to moderate Niña as our base state and the atmosphere has behaved as if we were in a Niña regardless.

Got sandblasted down at Brighton Beach today.  Was breezy as hell!  Still, sunny, warm and dry though.

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

september's going to be hotter than june

Who wouldn’t expect that at this point?  Def a notable trend.

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Isn't it geared further south today

Was supposed to be, but the radar's looking pretty juicy for the Metro area! 

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Second strongest AO block and we still can't get below normal temperatures.

Once the blocking lifts we're gonna fry.

Yeah this is what I'm thinking too.  Crossing my fingers that this robust blocking returns during the winter.

I wonder if that other line working through East-Central PA will make it here.

More sun and warmth than I expected today here in the City.  Not sure if that means anything regarding the severe potential later on.  Got my eyes peeled for a @forkyfork post. 

This was pretty lame when it pushed through the city, but the piece of the line scraping the south shore of LI looks pretty juicy!

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

Somebody might have addressed this in the past, but why do storms often seem to refire once they push offshore?

5 minutes ago, jr461 said:

What happened to the wunderground radar sites - they have all been like this for a long time.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/pa/philadelphia/dix

 

Noticed the same thing and it's been my go-to forever now.  Anyone else got anything better?  NWS's radar cite is too derpy for me.

4 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

finally broke down A/C is on.

Lol I tried to hold out too, but cracked under the humidity-induced insomnia last night.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

One of the worst April may combos of my lifetime….ugly weather 

Yeah it's been pretty stanky.  Pattern might finally be breaking down though.  Probably going to flip to summer quickly!

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. 

MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    74  65  73 SE7       

Yeah the soupy dews are definitely back.  Last night was muggy.  Finally time to put away the flannel sheets until the fall!