Eduardo

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i see a lot of comments about how they are sick of this kind of weather. again i ask why would anyone want warm and humid weather from now until late september? i prefer to keep the heat away for as long as possible no sane person would want humid hot weather for 6 months non stop if that is the kind of weather you like.. move to florida!!!

Alright we'll move to Florida if you move to Vancouver for the nonstop chilly maritime trash.  Deal? 

I mean, ultimately it's merely a matter of preference, right?  Personally, I like our varied climate and love all extreme weather.  Give me warmth in the summer and tundra-like cold and snow during the winter.  This persistent cool, damp nonsense is monotonous.  I'm ready for some warm summer days and afternoon T-storms.  Come September, I'll welcome chilly weather again.

2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Was at the Yankee game last night (epic) and it was way too cold for my liking, looking forward to some warmer days/nights!

Was just saying this last night.  I'd love to get to a game soon, but only after it warms up a lil more.

45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

cool summers come with lots of cool rainy days...we probably wont see a day like July 5th 1979 when the max/min was 69/53 with Sunny skies...more like a day of 72/65 with rain...

Wow yeah I wasn't alive back then, but that just seems unthinkable to me now!!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures.

That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be.  I'd be happy with some sunny skies and seasonable May temps.  Keep a lid on the cold, damp, stuff until autumn though haha.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 

 

  Personally, I'm so done with this pattern.  Bring back the cool weather in the Fall and send us into the deep freezer during the winter, but give it a rest until then!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been our default summer pattern since 2018.

 

The "stuck patterns" theme continues!  What are the chances of summer lasting deep into September again, followed by a struggle to establish blocking during next winter? 

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

Here's an explanation I found regarding why it was so loud (lots of discussion about how loud it was in twitter): 

https://twitter.com/MezcalSoprano/status/1521107194187558915?s=20&t=ga02ZrVUhPiRMX0V0qgCVA

This was a great read.  Thanks!

I live on Roosevelt Island and figured that the unique rolling-type sound was simply the sound waves echoing off of the buildings on either side of the East River, but this explanation makes more sense.  Quite a wake-up call this AM!!

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

When I think of a modoki la niña I think of it being similar to an east based el niño which isn’t good normally for snow prospects in our area unless there’s blocking involved 

Yeah I think this is right.  -IOD also tends to yield cooler summers and milder winters, IIRC.  But someone correct me if I'm wrong on that.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape: 

 

 

Still very very early in the game, but it wouldn't surprise me since "stuck patterns" seem to be the norm over the past half-decade or so....

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Next week looks awful. I truly hate spring up here. we need to be done with the 50s

Yeah it's starting to get on my nerves a lil too, especially after that teaser of a nice day we had last Thursday.  The higher spring sun makes some positive difference even on cooler days, but come on!

On 4/16/2022 at 3:42 PM, Eduardo said:

Am I wrong in feeling like this is becoming a persistent theme since 2016 (tepid winter blocking, followed by robust spring blocking)?  I realize that we’ve had some blocky periods during some recent winters but, by and large, it feels like we’ve gotten more frequent blocky periods in the spring.

On 4/16/2022 at 5:31 PM, bluewave said:

The blocking has been more impressive during the spring than the winter since the super El Niño.

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it must be the spring when these -AO forecasts correct stronger over time.

New run 

Old run

Yeah I'm about ready to change the channel now—preferably to one that features blocking at the "right times."  :-)

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

Am I wrong in feeling like this is becoming a persistent theme since 2016 (tepid winter blocking, followed by robust spring blocking)?  I realize that we’ve had some blocky periods during some recent winters but, by and large, it feels like we’ve gotten more frequent blocky periods in the spring.

11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

who wants warmth in march or april.. when you will have it all summer..it keeps the bugs away...the chilly weather...

Nah I kinda disagree.  For me, we've reached the point on the calendar where I just want sunny, warm weather (but am of course already hoping for a Nov 2022–Feb 2023 snowy tundra).

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I miss winter

It'll be back before too long.  Personally, I'm all about late-season snow.  But if it's not gonna happen, then I'm all for some nice Spring weather.  Nothing worse than cold, dreary, BDCF-ridden Springs.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. 

55 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

I’ll add to the nostalgia of that one.  I was living in SW Suffolk at the time and woke up to this.  Incredible surprise!

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Funny how there’s no mention from you about the torch coming up lol Let’s look ahead to March and ignore it instead 

I don't think anyone on here is denying that we are in for a substantial (yes, possibly record-breaking) warmup over the next 7 days or so.  But trends over the past few days undeniably seem to favor a shorter duration one and possibly a return to a colder, snowier pattern than we originally thought for at least the first half of March.

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March

development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff

That's definitely a look that could yield some serious cold for early March.  Let's hope we get some more snow chances too.  The lack of NATL blocking makes me wary, but we've done well even in times where it's been absent over the past decade.

I'm def hopeful that the first half of March'll be fun before we close the shades!

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

I will lose all faith in humanity if you defect to the warmanistas. 

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Mediocre

 

Probably around 15-20 inches so far…but many more days of snow on ground then places that had more snow like NYC and Nassau.

 

The cold January and even the 13 this morning kept this winter interesting.

 

Had it not been for the cold, I would say bad winter.

 

February looks done. If we eek out anything in March, great

This is roughly how I feel about the winter so far, although I am actually more hopeful that March gets us close to normal seasonal snowfall. 

The cold in January was nice, but I'm still waiting for the type of extreme cold that freezes the City waterways.  Been awhile since we've seen that!

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Temps still above frz the majority of the area at 5pm 

Geographically, it's close.  Demographically, a majority is below freezing since NYC is....

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC just experienced its biggest February hourly temperature drop on record.  The temperature fell 18° in just one hour. This beats the previous February record which was 10°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&hours=1&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was also the largest hourly decline during winter. The old mark was 13 degrees.

Those are some incredible stats!  Add it to our repertiore of extremes.  Thanks for sharing.

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but as others have said you're not going to get ice accumulating that much at 30-32 degrees.

On outer-borough power lines?  I think ice'd accumulate on those at 30 degrees.  Roads and sidewalks in NYC are another story though.

46 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Can’t  do anything else he’s a limited poster I wonder why. LOL

Awww everyone beats up on him, but I guess I have a soft spot for him and actually find his contrarian attitude pretty entertaining.  Let's be honest: this place wouldn't be the same without him.

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning.

That seems like a plausible outcome.  If you are 50+ miles north or west of NYC, it's def time to pay attention.  Down here in the city, a glaze can cause headaches, but 1/2" of ice can cause real problems up by you all.

9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

People make these blanket statements about how the area is going to get this or that but don't realize that people in this forum are separated by 100 miles or more. Some places on the Island picked up 2ft with the latest storm and I got 2-3 inches. The climo is vastly different from eastern Long Island to Mid Hudson Valley. 

Yeah I mean, if you're here purely for IMBY info, then you're less likely to care.  True enthusiasts actually enjoy hearing about our area's different climates and microclimates.  That diversity of experience is actually a big part of what makes this hobby so fun for me!