Eduardo

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I had about a half inch in December, in the levittown area. Are you talking about pictures of Central Park?

I live on Roosevelt Island and the December event did not give us a coating. We are still at 0.

Impressive CTG strike followed by a loud clap of thunder over the East River just now.

Peak severe season! 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So we should just all quit this forum and stop tracking for the rest of the winter.

 

Very premature calls by a few people on here.

Not at all!  We should stay on the forum, both to commiserate and to continue learning from one-another.  There is definitely much to be gained from refining our abilities to sniff out the warning signs of a crumby winter in advance and theorize about what might get us out of the snow slump we are in.

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This winter was over at the end of December. Nyc will blow past the date of latest measurable and probably end the winter with lowest snowfall….

I mean, lowest snowfall ever is always a low-probability outcome by default.  I wouldn’t put money on it.  But a true ratter of a winter is really looking likelier by the day.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time.

Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. 

I fully feel your frustration.  I too am a snow weenie at heart.  But the LR guidance has consistently corrected towards warmer temps and a storm track through the Great Lakes since November.  So, while we all can see some better-looking snapshots on the 15-day and it’s tempting to read significance into them, it’s kind of irrational to believe them right now.  That learned skepticism is also what’ll shield us from disappointment later on (and provide a pleasant sense of surprise if things come into alignment for us for a period).

I think the best we can do right now is cross our fingers and hope for a lucky event or two before climo starts working against us.  After that, we need to look for some kind of catalyst to get us out of this seemingly-never ending Niña with its raging PAC jet/SE ridge pattern.  I’m really just too much of a novice to know what that that catalyst might be though. Another major ENSO event?  A volcanic event perhaps?

Just now, snowman19 said:

I very seriously doubt a +PNA having any staying power. The La Niña is still moderate (Region 3.4 is -1.1C), the SOI is still very high and the trade winds are still anomalously very strong. I can’t imagine the PNA sticking around long before we go RNA again, especially given Niña climo in February

I tend to agree, although a fleeting PNA might give us a window during peak climo where we can score even with stale PAC air.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

More likely, blocking returns as it statistically does following a neg. AO in December and we are rainy and chilly with temps 45 to 50. 

We are not lucky enough to get 60 and sunny consistently.

 

Ya just in time to make for a *cold, damp spring, right? 

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think we just have to hope that this most recent five year period doesn’t characterize a “new normal” for the area. I suppose we’ll gain some insight there when we finally shake up the ENSO into something more favorable and see how we do. Can’t really think of much else to add, just hoping we can snag at least one moderate coastal out of this month. 

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t think things are that dire yet.  Temp-wise, I think we’ll see more cold clusters like 13–14 and 14–15 even as long-term (i.e., 10- and 30-year) averages continue to rise.  Snow-wise, it’s more about getting certain atmospheric variables to allign.  That’ll happen at some point (likely for a string of winters) even as we continue warming overall.  We’ve seen an anomalous number of 40”+ winters since 02–03 even during some of the warmer of those winters (with 09–10 perhaps being the most notable).

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña.

This captures things perfectly IMO and I’d add that the screaming PAC jet is what has led to longer-range models being unable to sort things out over these past few years.  Our failure to score in December despite a -4.0 AO, I think, really highlights the dominance of this feature.

At some point, things will reshuffle and we’ll return to a more snow-lover-friendly background state (albeit amidst an increasingly warmer globe).  That could take years, if history is any indication.  Until then, we are just going to have to hope for some luck.  But hanging on to hope that everything is just going to flip on a dime is just setting yourself up for disappointment at this point.

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted .

Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow.  Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond.  I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter.  Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one.

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0.40" total rainfall In Smithtown.

If this had been a snowstorm, we'd be fuming about dryslots.

Honestly, 4 inches of snow before Xmas would’ve been fine by me even if we slotted away much more.  The continued snow drought (despite some decent blocking lately) is pretty depressing.

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The December blocking episodes have become more south based since the 1970s. So this allows the block to link up with the Southeast Ridge at times. This will be the case again for the storm on Friday. The one common denominator is the increasing record warm pool to our east. This allows the blocks to extend further south than during eras when the SSTs were much colder.

Great post (as usual), Chris.  Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore?  (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?)

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 19/20 an El Nino? Or was it neutral?

IIRC, that was the Niño that never coupled (i.e., “behaved like a Niña).

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We Grinch!

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

weak la ninas are our second snowiest state, and la ninas that come after el ninos are actually the best

 

Yeah but what about Niña’s following Niña’s following Niña’s? 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we're getting at least one KU imo

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ditto

Made my day!  Maybe the most bullish storm signal any of us can ask for .

6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can't El Nino also hurt us if it's too strong? I feel like we'll be at risk of swinging from a persistent Nina to a powerful Nino like 2016 and just torch anyway.

Of course I'm probably, hopefully wrong.

Yes of course, although don’t forget that the greatest snowfall dump of many of our lifetimes (Jan. 2016) came during that “powerful Niño”’you refer to.

Feels like we need to hit the reset button on the PAC though.  We can luck ourselves into some fun like we did, for example, in December 2020 (and we’ll probably see some action this winter too at some point). But if you’re looking for sustained cold and storms, it’s pretty difficult when the PAC stubbornly refuses to cooperate for years on end.

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think this year could end up like 12-13 vs 01-02

We’ll see.  If that block slingshots over to Siberia, it’s gonna get real boring around here for a bit.

I’m def done with these Niña, PAC trash winters.  Hopefully we shake things up soon!

33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Driving back from Vermont the rain snow line was just NE of the Ct Ny border

one thing I did notice is the tops of the 57th street super talls looked to be obscured in snow above 800-1000’ I wish we had a station on top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. Probably be a few inches up there from this 

Noticed this too as I took a walk down the Roosevelt Island promenade today too. I wondered if there’d be snowflakes outside my 47th floor office window if I were there.  Just the chilliest possible rain for us surface dwellers though. Nice day to just be inside under a blanket.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays. 

Lol I mean, I could have told you that 4 years ago .

58 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS got a little better, EPS got a little worse. 

Perhaps they are finally going to get closer to a compromise.

Would a compromise between the two work well for us winter wx lovers though?

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system

The PAC improvement is what I like most here.  But I f that ends up being a phantom depiction, then it’s gonna be a struggle to get any fun winter wx down to the coast. Except for a few diamonds in the rough (in my lifetime, 95–96 and 10–11), these Niña winters tend to be mostly suckage (and IIRC, the good ones had decent cold in late Nov/early Dec).

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change. 

How would another robust El Niño dislodge the semi-perma-Niña trash though if what we have right now followed the 2015–2016 super-Niño though?

21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

One step at a time, but that’s definitely quite bullish.

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there. 

A few steps ahead, perhaps (compared to me anyways).  Knocking the PV on its heels in a manner that yields a prolonged period of blocking would be a huge bonus, in my book.  Hoping hard for it but I’m def focused on just getting a period of something other than the terrible PAC puke to which we’ve grown accustomed.