Eduardo

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is still far from its record:

Yeah this period is painful, but still nothing like the late 80s and late 90s ones.

Moderate snow on Roosevelt Island with a coating on all non-paved surfaces.  I wish we weren’t gonna flip!

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

strat warming = snow = voodoo.  Anytime strat warming enters the picture as the Winter's savior, it harkens the unwelcome entrance of Winter's Angel of Death instead.  Sorry but I don't care about strat warming.

I always saw them as more of a crapshoot since, in the event of one, you face the risk of shunting all of the cold to the other side of the pole.  That’s why I always cringe when there’s SSW talk in the beginning of the winter.  You chance burning up valuable climo periods.   On the flip side though, when we get toward the waning days of the winter, why not roll the dice on the possibility of some bonus winter wx?

37 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.

This is basically how I’ve been thinking about the pattern for the past few days.  Hopefully it sticks around a bit into Feb before we are probably done outside of some lucky Niña March slop.

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

13-14 was a more impressive winter to our west for days with 1” OTG.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” OTG

1	1995-1996	62	0
2	2004-2005	55	0
3	1977-1978	53	1
4	2014-2015	48	0
5	1993-1994	46	3
6	2010-2011	45	0
7	2013-2014	39	0
-	2000-2001	39	23
8	1964-1965	37	1
9	1976-1977	36	0
10	1963-1964	35	7
11	1969-1970	34	2
12	2009-2010	32	0
13	2020-2021	30	0
-	2017-2018	30	0
14	2008-2009	29	0
-	2003-2004	29	7
15	2012-2013	27	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending with 1” OTG

1	1995-1996	68	0
2	1977-1978	66	0
3	1993-1994	64	0
4	2013-2014	62	0
5	1947-1948	60	3
6	2010-2011	57	5
-	1935-1936	57	0
7	1960-1961	55	0
-	1917-1918	55	6
8	2014-2015	53	8
-	1919-1920	53	4
9	1976-1977	51	0
10	1933-1934	50	0
11	1969-1970	47	0
-	1944-1945	47	0
12	2002-2003	46	23
13	2000-2001	45	0
14	1986-1987	44	0
-	1922-1923	44	6

Puts in perspective how, for us retention snobs, having 13-14 and 14-15 back to back was something of a dream come true.  Sign me up for that anytime!

BTW, I too was living on the south shore at the time and recall that, even when snow depth fell under 1”, there still were plenty of cement-like patches and piles dotting the landscape.  I don’t think the ground was completely bare for most of January and February.

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes.

 

 

Lakes and Hudson Bay have to be freezing over some by this point though, no?  If yes, then a discharge similar to last week’s would probably be a touch colder in terms of sensible weather, right?

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I bought a huge LL Bean down parka in the fall of 1990. I didn't need it til 94.....

Yeah I was just a kid, but IIRC, 93-94 and 95-96 were really the only cold 90s winters, no?  92-93 had the December and March storms, but isn’t remembered for being cold.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

my two favorites were 10-11 and 14-15

 

95-96 and 02-03 even better but those were a long time ago

It’s close.  I was around for and loved both 95-96 and 02-03.  Even though 95-96 was snowier, the retention snob in me likes 14-15 slightly more than both of them.  It was true “deep winter.”

We really were spoiled for awhile beginning in 02-03.  I knew it at the time though and never took it for granted.

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn’t expect something as ridiculous as 13-14… the pattern just reminded me of the one largely in place that year 

Yeah I agree. Definitely some loose resemblance, though that was an especially epic year for snow and cold.  One of my personal fav’s—the top one for me being ‘14-15.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between 

You risk cutters in that pattern, but I wouldn’t call it a “cutter pattern.”  It’s like a diet 13-14 look.  You can score decent events when waves ride the arctic boundary dragged down by a cutter, in fact! 

12 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

We could use a slight amount of SE ridging to our south. That’s one way to get the precip to slide up along the coast. Not a horrible look but it’s still very far out.

You risk tainting at the coast, but in this type of pattern, it’s worth chancing to bump some precip up against the cold air.

I still think we score one warning-level criteria event before we mild up on Feb.  Also a chance we sneak something in March when wavelengths shorten…not uncommon in Niña years.

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'm always surprised that a lot of posters here have the preference that if it's not going to snow that they prefer it to be mild.  I admit that as I get older I like the idea of the cold more in theory than in actual practice, but still I'll take the cold over mild in January and February, whether its accompanied by snow or not.  This goes double for the Thanksgiving to New Year's timeframe.  Love the idea of seeing the lakes freeze over, and walking on a frozen lawn.  Why?  Who knows.  But I think part of it is that surprise 60s once March gets here feel 10x better when they follow a cold winter.  When the winter is full of damp 55s, March 60s don't hit the same way.  Ok, I could have started this thing Dear Diary lol but anyway that's my take.

 

I’ll second this! My wife thinks I’m a total nutjob but—while I’d definitely prefer it be accompanied by snow—I absolutely love any and all cold during this time of year.  To me, there’s something invigorating about it and, yes, it makes the weather ‘breaking’ in the spring all the more satisfying.

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting week 3 look.

Not sure that’ll verify, but that’s kind of a ‘13-14’ish look, no?

I find it hard to believe that we don’t score at least one warning-criteria event if the cold stays nearby.

50 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

and one of our greatest blizzards of all time happened in 1978. some here keep trying to paint the decades prior to 2000 as a snowless hellscape and that just isn't true

Some diamonds in the rough for sure.  I wasn’t around yet, but the stats make the “rough” part of that seem pretty…rough, no?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The neg nao is hurting us the most imo 

It’s hurting us some, but not “the most” IMO.  The PAC is killing us “the most.”  As Chris (@bluewave) said, some relaxation of the raging PAC jet might actually have allowed us to harness the ATL-side block to our advantage.  This has been the PAC story for a few years now though.
 

FWIW, my amateur view continues to be that we might get enough of a temporary respite from it to score something this winter and that it’ll cycle downward some over the next few winters.  The worst is behind us, in other words.

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

The vast majority of people who act like they’re not emotionally connected to any sort of weather outcome is lying to themselves. 

I don’t know if it’s a “vast majority,” though the ones who showcase their biases on here (who, don’t get me wrong, I love) tend to be ‘louder,’ more frequent posters.

I definitely hope for tundra-like cold and snow during the winter.  2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were the glory days for me.  But I also have been incredibly bearish on any such fun over these past few winters.  This year, I thought we’d have some periods where the PAC would cooperate and, objectively-speaking, I think it’s safe to say that this upcoming mid-January period offers more potential than we’ve seen for quite awhile.  I wouldn’t be surprised to have to close the shades again come late January or early February, but that still a ways out.

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

Eh I think that could work as a serviceable “Mexy” setup even to the coast.  The Aleutian low and -EPO is what has me paying the most attention since the PAC has ruined all things holy during these past few winters.

Best look I’ve seen in a few years though.  I def have more confidence in this than last year’s Feb rugpull.  Still a ways out though, so not worth focusing on the deets this early.

For what it’s worth, I measured 0.9 inches on Roosevelt Island this AM which, combined with last week’s event, brings the seasonal total to 2.9 inches.  No idea what CPK will do and, to be honest, I’ve long stopped considering that measurement.

Close enough for the 3-inches-in-December-Niñas rule? 

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not sure. I would donate to a trip where you take home to Lake Placid so he can see a winter wonderland. 17/11 here at the moment, good numbers. 

Just went two weeks ago.  Place is a snow lover’s dream!  Have fun and eat at Jimmy’s!

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

It will definitely happen again many more times. 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Geez, it’ll happen again. We got spoiled very much in the 2000s and 2010s. This decade is reverting to the mean and feels a lot more like the early and late 1990s sprinkled in with a dash of world-ending despair.


.

Oh by that, I meant the “surprise” blockbusters that pop up within 48 hours!

58 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Incredible storm for Suffolk county. That mega death band rotated in from the East and just dumped all night. 

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this.  I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so.  I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot.

No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again.  Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has mood flakes for Christmas Eve and cold for both Christmas Eve and Day

 

 

I would take the mood flakes and run in a heartbeat.  I think that’s the best it’ll get in this pattern, unfortunately.

12 hours ago, North and West said:

I think some people (including myself) said this last season, but people are really taking the withdrawal and reversion to the mean recently from all of those great snowy years hard.




.

Yeah we are all feeling it, though at least we’ve had some cold this year rather than the persistent wintertime swampiness to which we’ve become accustomed these past few years.  I actually think we are near—if not slightly past—the worst of the famine though.  Although I generally am in the camp that, over the long term, the trend is toward lower average snowfall, I think we snow lovers have some better times ahead over the next few years—and maybe even some favorable periods this winter if things shake out the right way—as we hopefully finish up this “downward spike” in seasonal snowfall.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles have the northern stream low too far north into Cleveland. We need that low to track south closer to Cincinnati. The set up that worked for NYC back on 12-29-87 with 2.6” in NYC had this type of track. The common theme in recent years has been too dominant a northern stream. It would be nice if we could change that up some time soon.

 

 

NS-dominant patterns can work under some conditions, but not these.  I wish I could get as excited about this setup as some seem to be.  But, from what I see, this isn’t likely to deliver (let alone boost us over that magic 3” December threshold).

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Congratulations! -11 there last night, just a little(way) too nippy for me. If it's so cold out you can't enjoy the snow that's another bummer. Closest I've ever been to there is Lake George. 

Thank you so much, fellow Bill Evans board OG .

No doubt the coldest place I’ve ever been, but I absolutely love it.  Also, just another reason to get cozy while inside.  I would def recommend driving an extra hour north from Lake George to see it!