Eduardo

I am cool with this and will be encouraged if we see signs of blocking early on!

Wow it had slowed down (relatively-speaking) on Roosevelt Island, but it suddenly went right back to insanity.  What an event!

15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Closing in on 2” with moderate rain now. Radar depiction is like a rotting nor’easter.
 

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come; I can’t remember if we got a single wound up storm last winter. 

Been thinking the same thing all weekend.  Would be absolutely glorious to get a nice, ol fashioned long-duration snow event.  Feels like forever since we’ve seen one!

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Back edge finally coming through - stuck in the muck all day perhaps some clearing in time for sun set

 

Sweet, elusive backlash….rains 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Septembers have been getting steadily warmer since the 80s and 90s. Most of the Septembers in recent years have averaged over 70° around NYC. So plenty of top 10 warmest Septembers.

 

Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this?  The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5.

Reminds me of Irene in 2011.  Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC.

1 hour ago, Cincy12 said:

I feel like guidance fails to take into consideration the likelihood of major swifts when we’re talking about Cat 4-5 hurricanes. Irma, Maria I recall showed a “northern” trend and failed to produce. Sub 950’s hurricanes for lack of better words “have a mind of their own” to a certain point.


.

I see this “mind of their own” trope often, but I don’t understand it.  Don’t deeper cyclones tend to move more poleward?  IIRC, Irma defied the models (biased toward that climatologically-favored outcome in their longer ranges) because an anomalously-robust ridge to her north forced her south of due west at one point. 
 

Not saying that can’t happen again, of course.  But if it does, I do wonder if it’ll be because Lee to be has a “mind of his own.”

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well

I don’t think the EC becomes a possibility unless and until we see either: (1) south of due west motion; and/or (2) a center reformation to the south (unlikely, given the low shear environment).  If any of these occur, then I’ll be interested in it as something more than a swell generator.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Best light show in a decade. It’s so rare to get that continuous lighting on the island. Memorable 

100% this!!  Usually, it’s the thunder that stirs me from my sleep.  Never been woken up by lightning alone until last night!!

First time in my life awakened by lightning and not thunder (and through closed shades to boot)! Excellent storm!

Sitting in the city very skeptical.  I’m hoping for something interesting, but I can’t help but feel like it’s all gonna fizzle.

Heavy rain in Northport (LI)! Hardest I’ve seen it rain in awhile!

Nice CTG lightning strike right over Manhattan just now.  Pouring as well!

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

This summer basically never got started. Are there any signs that we break into a real summer pattern any time soon? Hot, sun, beach, pool weather. The 85-95 with sun for an extended stretch, pool temps warm and you can go to the beach with a confident hot and sunny summer day type weather? 

I’m still waiting for last winter to start as well……

Never seen anything like this.  Manhattan smells like a campfire and the sky over it is an almost catoyant dark orange.

I am not gonna complain.  Would love to see some severe wx (which we only seem to get during the winter months now anyway), but I am loving the lack of humidity!

Aside from driving blizzard conditions, this is some of the best weather for a late-night walk.  If you’ve got a few mins to spare, do it!

Some serious pingers outside my 47th-floor window in Manhattan!

22 hours ago, psv88 said:

Drugs?

On 3/19/2023 at 6:22 PM, Maxwell03 said:

I've been noticing a trend in southern NJ going back to January with a few pieces to it: 1) there is a persistent haze that rests over the horizon on sunny days, (2) light pollution turns the night sky a nautical almost twilight-esque blue color during clear conditions regardless of moon phase, and (3) the sky blackens like a summer thunderstorm on pretty much every afternoon that it rains. Is this the work of a temperature inversion? Dust in the atmosphere? Something else? 

I was wondering if anyone on the NY forum had noticed these phenomena. I've brought it to the attention of other folks with a mixed response, and I'd like to nail down the culprit. 

Was probably the particulates from the wildfires filtering the sunlight you were seeing.

I’m traveling to Albany for work this week.  Might be my only chance to see more than 1/2” of snow on the ground this winter.  What a ratter of a season.

Just walked through a Brooklyn neighborhood I haven’t visited since January 2014.  Got some serious tundra nostalgia.  Hoping we get locked into another pattern like that during my lifetime!

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs, which was attributed to that month's SSW. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

I feel like it’s so late in the game that, at most, this’ll just mean that the weather is more spring-like now than it will be after the equinox (i.e., follow up our craptastic winter with a(nother) dreary, damp spring). 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah if it had that HECS in March it would have done it and been the superior winter.

I have three things I go by for an A winter:

1. At least three months with 10"+ inches of snow.

2. At least 50" of snowfall for the season

3. At least one HECS (20"+) snowstorm.

 

See for me, 13–14 was closer to an A winter because of the entrenched cold.  I’ll take slightly less snowfall if it sticks around for longer periods of time.  The snowstorm with single-digit temps in January 2014 was a huge plus too.

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I totally buy the eps furnace after the briefest arctic shot known to man. The end of the 00z has a real roasting in progress.

If it showed a cold flip, we’d discount it. But since it’s this ‘winter’ I’d bet money that it pans out. 

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

93-94 was an amazing winter in the mid HV for cold and snow lovers. I just remember it being sold damn cold and it never stopped snowing. I remember battling ice dams on my roof because of the snow and cold. I got as cold as -22 that winter. 

47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I believe that was the Wilentz building, which is close to royalty in NJ....I'd take 2013-14, lots of nice events, but no blockbusters; 2015 had many piddly events of 3-5 inches and a lot of rain mixes. 2011 loses out because it was over in Jan, but what a time it was.....two big blockbusters. 

93–94 and 95–96 were great winters for different reasons.  93–94 came after a multi-year crap fest and had it all: sustained cold, snow, and even a true ice storm.  95–96 was just incredible because of the sheer amount of snowfall right down to the coast.  
 

I’m a bit of a retention snob though so, for me, the 13–14 and 14–15 stretches were even better than those.  We saw one snowstorm (in early ‘14 I think) with temps in the single digits.  There were some solid, almost tundra-like conditions that lasted weeks at a time.  Waterways frozen, snow that just blew around from place to place and refused to melt, and weeks of single-digit lows.  Been awhile since we’ve seen that kind of “deep winter” now.  Would love another stretch like that!