Eduardo

Too much living and dying by every model run in here.  The MJO is dictating everybody and everything this year—volatile LR guidance included.  And because it’s behaving so erratically thanks to the current PAC SST configuration, so too will the guidance.

Likely outcome IMO: Given the current SST landscape, just as happened earlier this month and back in Dec, we will make one more brief run through P8 and hopefully skirt P1 before the MJO reverts back to its crumby phases. During that short window, we will have a chance, possibly at something big.  Hopefully, bad luck won’t shut us out again.

Not a great winter for snow lovers so far, but definitely quite a learning experience.  Huge impact on how I view ENSO.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just last week the models were hinting at a faster MJO decay. Now they just want to keep it going longer again. So we go back to the winter default position of waiting to see what the MJO actually does. 

 

Frustrating for me as a hobbyist, Chris.  I can only imagine the migraines it causes professional forecasters.  Wreaking havoc on LR models too since, when they get the MJO wrong, their LR outputs become rather useless...probably explains why many have been duped into pinning their hopes to the pretty pictures constantly showing a favorable pattern ten days out, only to (literally) get caught in the rain down the road.

What do you think accounts for the poor job the models have done with the MJO this year?

5 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

As disappointing as this winter has been so far, we all need to chill, yours truly included.  We have two more months left of winter and all it will take is one big snowstorm to help us forget about our disappointment so far.  Things are shaping up more favorably with baby steps.  

Nobody remembers the first half of 2014-15 and they only remember the first half of 2015-16 because of the batshittery that was December 2015.  With the MJO decaying, I think we are in for a decent run that will allow some of us to forget the disappointments we have seen thus far.  I think we snow to the coast and that "retention snobs" like me will be satisfied given the deep cold that's on the way!

7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

GEFS look really good too. Lots of members with big hits down to the coast.

 

 

LOL.  My 3.1" seasonal total (thanks entirely to the November snow-to-rain event) would essentially remain unchanged if any of those verified.

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

running out of time in a few weeks...it's been "a few weeks away" for about 6 weeks now.  January will likely end up above normal temp wise...

(1) Yes......time moves forwards..... :-P  We are just now rounding the halfway point of meteorological winter and March’s have been kind to us in recent years as well.  While we might need some luck for this weekends storm, I think the coast is in a better position to reap some dividends afterwards.

(2) AN for Jan is hardly assured given the cold that’s progged to settle in for the rest of the month.  Might be tough to erase the + departures from the early-month PAC puke, but it might be doable.

2 hours ago, tim said:

...thats my concern for us islanders.

Give it time.  Models will bounce around for the next few days in what seems a tempermental battle between the TPV and WAR.  At this point though, I don’t think the tele’s favor a snowy solution for us coasties. MJO’s antics continue to be the flies in the ointment, meaning that the WAR probably buts in too much.  Maybe a bit of payback for all of those glorious coastal scrapers we have seen over the past few years that have shut out the interior.

Patience though.  I think our fortune might change in a few weeks when the MJO either moves into the COD or more favorable phases.  The blockiness modeled up top will help.  There’ll definitely be plenty of cold nearby too. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It essentially creates an RPNA with rigging near AK and EC and a trough over the GL. The cold only comes by after the storm is past.

Yeah the only way we overcome that is to have an overwhelming EPO to counter the WAR like we have had in some recent years.  I'd love to see it since that's how we get those exceptionally cold snowstorms and deep winter here.  But I don't see anything like that modeled here.

MJO is killing any semblance of forecast certainty this year.  I wish it would just retreat to the COD and stay there....

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase.

To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted.  The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter.

Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years.  It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO.  Why?

Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game.

Without it, wind doesn't blow.  It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind.  Big gradient = big wind.

That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. 

There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere.  If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that "no where" means, less resultant forcing. 

It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

Been thinking this as well.  I’m by no means a pro, but at an elementary level, it seems like all weather is driven by “gradients,” no?

Outside of a lucky/fluky event, I think it’s time to close the shades until mid January, especially for us coasties.  Pattern seems mostly MJO-driven and that should come back into favorable phases around that time. May take a bit of time to drive the incoming PAC air mass off the continent once the pattern shifts.

Stratwarming might be the wildcard here, but they always seem to yield mixed/not-easily-discernible results for us.

I do think we end up doing well after mid January, which actually fits well with typical Niño climo.  Unless we hit a rout of severe bad luck, I think NYC has a solid chance at seeing 40+” on the winter, most of which will fall in the season’s second half. Many of our recent backloaded Niño winters feature some impressive cold too, so 0 degrees in NYC would not surprise me either.

Muddling through a mild holiday season is no fun, but it seems to be the norm here in the past few decades. But, if that history is any indication, in years with similar ENSO states, the waiting tends to pay off later on.

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z...

I'm sure you're aware of that. 

One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!'   ...In a general sense, that works often enough.  I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction   -  ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that.

So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein:  they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. 

It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

Given that the potential transition window centers around the holiday, I honestly think it's all driven by a (shared) desire for a white Xmas and amplified by the recent bout of bad luck.  That's all there is to it.

Once we move past Xmas (whether it's white or not), everybody will get over it and wait with baited breath as we look forward to a rocking second half of the winter, which ENSO climo supports.  I'm looking forward to it!

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Hmm I got crushed.

Upton really got crushed.

Same in SW Suffolk.  An even 21" here, if memory serves.  Unforgettable how it ticked just far enough north in the last 48 hours to nail us!

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

Probably rushing things a bit, although still good to see of course.  At this point I'm about ready to close the shades and punt today-December 10th or so, but I think our chances improve mid-month on.

Patience!  It's only November 24th!  :-)

Getting a solid, steady soaking here in SW Suffolk.  From the looks of the radar, there's more on the way before Michael scoots out to sea.

3 minutes ago, SENC said:

Mappy, see that's the thing, everyone is screaming CAT 4 or CAT 5.. Yet there is NO DATA too support this..

 

This is like the tree falling in the woods thought experiment, except that here, we already have aerial footage showing the tree on the ground and we are waiting to hear from eyewitnesses who likely will confirm that it indeed made a sound when it fell....

I'm shocked that any instruments stood up to Cat. 3 wind gusts to record what they did over 40 minutes before landfall.  "Data" includes much more than just those measurements.  We take into account the type and extent of structural damage wrought, eyewitness testimony, satellite and radar imagery, and measurements taken just prior to landfall (i.e. recon obs).  You seem to have a serious misunderstanding of how science works (i.e., how working hypotheses are tested and revised).

We have had less than 24 hours now to survey the damage and assess the strength of Michael by these standards.  Getting a complete picture will take some time.  Calling this an overhyped Cat. 2 at this juncture is both premature and asinine.

Unexpectedly decent winds with this here in Southwest Suffolk...enough to take down some small, healthy tree branches.

Rain and lightning are impressive as well.  Not bad for October 2nd!

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Florence had the 3rd lowest barometric pressure ever recorded for a landfalling U.S. category 1 hurricane south of 40N.

#1....942 mb Sandy........... 2012

#2....952 mb Irene............  2011

#3....958 mb Florence.......  2018

#4....963 mb Lili................. 2003

#5....966 mb Isaac..............2011

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

Interesting that 4 of 5 of them occurred in the last seven years, Chris.  Do we know if there is some larger-scale/decadal phenomenon that accounts for this?

Some of the most vivid, "dancing" CTG lightning strikes I've seen aside from the light show I saw when I was in Havana last summer.

Car on Sunrise Highway *roughly 250 feet in front of me was struck!

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters...

season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall...

1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season...

1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season...

1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell...

1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter...

1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season...

1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell...

2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season...

2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

Solid post, as always Unc.

If you have the time and willingness to indulge my curiosity, what do things look like in ENSO-neutral years following double-Niña/weak negative years?

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clearly, the rise of Social Media has made near real-time analyses and updates feasible. Many look forward to such fresh information.

However, there is a real quality issue. Sensationalism is all too common (often with the most extreme model maps being posted for upcoming events). Plain misunderstanding of complex relationships is another one e.g., I recall one Twitter account was suggesting that a high-amplitude MJO event during June 2015 was unusual for what was a rising El Niño event when, in fact, during that time of year such events often take place during strengthening El Niños on account of shorter wave lengths. Overly deterministic assessments that ignore uncertainty is another matter.

Having said this, on balance Social Media has been beneficial in the dissemination of meteorological information. But to realize such benefits, one needs to be able to differentiate between quality sources and others. Many who actively participate on various weather forums can readily differentiate. I'm not so sure the less engaged general public can.

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don.  Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it.  A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw.  Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you.

Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have had top 10 storms near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique since it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block.

Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too.  Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event?

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown.

November: Temps-above normal. Confidence level 5 out of 10

December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

January: Temps- above to much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

February: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10

March: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10

Snowfall: Below normal

For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves.

To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail.  But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it?

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest guidance

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15

Surprised at the number of them bending her back toward the NNW later in the period.  Are those all based off of the same model?

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

 

LOL.  Poor guy.  As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather.  Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.