Eduardo

Was summer-like when I left Albany yesterday afternoon and Seattle-like when I arrived in NYC three hours later.  Make it stop! 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This happens to be one of the very few months since the 15-16 super El Niño with a trough near the East Coast while there is a deep -PNA trough in the West. So something changed this month to go against the long term pattern. Figures a pattern like this would wait until May and not happen in the winter. It even left a decent cold pool to our east. Most other months like this over the last decade would have had a strong WAR or Southeast ridge pattern.

 

 

Is there any reason besides sheer happenstance/ bad luck why patterns beloved by winter-weather lovers lately seem to always set up outside of the winter season (and especially during the spring)?

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The amount of blocking showing up on the ensembles for the rest of the month could prevent the warm spots like Newark from reaching 90°. It looks like the warmer days should generally make it into the low 80s. This will be different than the pattern since 2010. The last two times Newark reached 90° during the first week of May like this year were in 2018 and 2010. Both those years had follow up 90s during the last week of May. We have to go back to 2000 and 2001 for 90° during the first week of May without 90s during the last week of May. 
 

May 1-7 max Newark 2024…90°

May 1-7 max Newark 2018…94°…May 25-31 max 92°

May 1-7 max Newark 2010…90°…May 25-31 max 95°

I think many of us (except for maybe @MJO812 ) are feeling pretty done with this pattern, Chris.  Do we break it in early June—as some stuck spring back door patterns have done in the past IIRC?

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm not trolling at all

You know me. I love cool and dreary weather besides winter.  It's also easier for my job. 

We agree from like October 1st onwards and then part ways in April.   I absolutely live for maximal frigid cold and snow all winter, but once that’s no longer a possibility, I’m all about sunny days with temps exceeding 80F!  These cold, dreary springs are terrible.

18 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Seriously smoky conditions on the Upper East Side and Roosevelt Island.  Wildfire-related or something else?

Nevermind.  I think I found the source:

Seriously smoky conditions on the Upper East Side and Roosevelt Island.  Wildfire-related or something else?

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Feels like early summer.

Firefly season will be here soon.

My soul is ready.  I wish it would stay like this until our next wall-to-wall winter of boring PAC-jet nonsense .

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the only winter that I experienced which could be compared to the little ice age before the global temperatures took off like a rocket after 1980. Walking to the school bus stop was quite an experience. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter averaging in the 20s. 

I would love to have this kind of cold return, even if it were dry.  Much preferable to the winter warmth to which we have become accustomed.

Guys I’m up in Albany for the week starting tomorrow, so it’s guaranteed to trend south and give the Metro its first significant snowfall in two years.  Enjoy!! 

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Always possible to sneak in something. But the first chance for NYC to get to 10” or greater on the season will probably have to wait until the last week of February or first week of March. Provided that actual pattern advertised by the extended EPS verifies.

I’m in the same camp.  I think NYC limps to double digits for the season by St. Paddy’s Day.

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Mmmm I’d say go outside and bask in the winter feel today.  Might be awhile before we experience it again, unfortunately .

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters.

My working amateur thesis was that maybe another Niño would snap things back in a positive direction for people like me who love the cold and snow.  Might have to revisit that……

Given how the past few winters have gone and the fact that we are climatologically near winter’s peak, a big part of me feels like the next few days will be the coldest stretch this winter will have to offer.  Anyone else?

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow.

Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time.

Oh sign me up man I’m all about it!  13–14 and 14–15 (the former more so) were my glory days!  Snowing with single-digit temps is the best it gets IMO!

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s 174 hours out but surface temps are very cold which isn’t a bad sign at this time 

I think it’s the ephemerally-better PAC that has me a tad excited for this one.  Climo is on our side as well. 

Snowing light to moderate on Roosevelt Island.  Nothing accumulating on any surfaces though.

Wild that this is the hardest I’ve seen it snow in almost two years!

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. Winter 2001-02 came closest with a minimum temperature of 19.

Yeah I figured that, if it had ever happened, it would have been 2001-2002 or 2011-2012.

Thanks Don!

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Quietly, this will be the coldest night of the winter so far. Down to 29 already with the wind making in feel much colder 

I was gonna say that today was the first time walking home from work when it felt like a normal winter evening.

Just out of curiosity (and sorry if this’s been answered) but has NYC ever gone a whole winter without temps dipping below 20 degrees?

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

storms like march 2017 and dec 2020 should stay in everyone's heads as reminders about what can happen to great looks at 48 hours

March 2017 was the first thought I had as well.  Might come down to how well that high to the north can serve us.  But maybe—just maybe—we will have some luck on our side.  Just so refreshing to actually have something to track!  Here’s to hoping things break our way in the new year!

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout. 

I was just thinking the same thing!  Amazing how little time we have spent below freezing these past two winters.  Felt like early spring walking through Manhattan today—and we’ve had so many days like this.

6 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.    I don't view Bustardi as an operational met anymore so much as a political pundit hocking books.  He has long past his expiration date on reliable forecaster in the long range and a lot of folks have wised up to it.  Margavage was in school when I was and flunked out, now returns as the 'cold and snow' guy and gets a following.

 

There are a lot of good mets around, a lot, who's opinion I value and respect.  Some of them were cold 1h Jan, many were not.  But they're not gonna be the loudest voice on twitter.

Welp….

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in late December into Janaury along with the forecasts were indicating a big turnaround. Following the low 70s leading up to Christmas, we quickly picked up a T of snow before New Years. Then a short Arctic outbreak with NYC dropping to 11° on Janaury 5th. I remember mentioning how impressive  it was to have a+500 meter KB block. Once it built back across the pole, the rest was history. The weeklies started looking great in late December.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-10/

 

 

 

You definitely telegraphed this back then!  I distinctly remember thinking of that winter as having been saved by that Kara ridge!!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

So much mild Pacific air has flooded Canada, that any continental polar will get modified heading south. That’s why I think the long range models will continue to correct warmer as we get closer to the forecast period. Plus storm tracks with the fast split flow will also present challenges.

I agree with this, although as we get into January, it becomes more possible to sneak in an event with a marginal airmass.  Something has to break our way at some point, right?….. Right? 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do.

Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

Chris @bluewave is one of the most solid, knowledgeable, objective posters I’ve encountered in any forum.  He was (correctly) super bullish on cold and snow from the time I first interacted with him (in 2009?) until the magic stopped a few years back.  Since then, broadly-speaking, he’s been correct that we’d be in the doldrums until the PAC cooperates.

Glad you’ve been dropping by here, @40/70 Benchmark.  I enjoy reading your analysis as well!