tamarack

Took away late week here but doubled qpf for tonight and a real oak-croaker next Monday.

I think GYX is in progress of upping the forecast totals, and only the "expected" amount has been revised, not the 90% and 10% maps. Maybe this belongs in the month of March thread, but GFS went nuts at 12z - doubled qpf for the current event (just catching up to other guidance) but also wiping out Thurs-Fri and crushing us next Monday (and if day 7 wasn't silly enough, another solid event at day 14.)

Thought of that and added that to my edit.

12" at my place? Earlier GYX (supported by most guidance) gave Farmington only a 10% probability of reaching half that. Hope this doesn't trigger more wrath, but 8 years ago today Farmington hit 83°. Edit: Ginxy got there first, though 83 in the Maine foothills on 3/23 is likely more anomalous than 85 in his BY. (Unless that pic was at SR)

Was 8° and m.cl when I left the house - maybe stay cold enough for a decent ratio? (Since qpf likely to be the limiting factor in the foothills.)

Agree, though in their defense the hills of central Oxford are notorious snow-catchers. However, for the next zone NE (where I live) they backed off accum - P&C now down to 1-3. Event always looked a bit south, one more tic and we get some mood flakes (at midnight) and not much else.

Just read (on Daily Bulldog, online newsfeed out of Farmington) of yesterday's rescue at Tumbledown Mt of a woman with a broken ankle. Looking at that ice makes me wonder even more why they (had 2 kids with her) were there, and without crampons. Took a crew of about 20 (no way <10 gets it done) five hours to get her down safely, having to belay the sled and rope it down on five of the steeper stretches. Article has some great pics of the terrain involved.

Would need over 2 feet to qualify as "near normal" here. I give it a 0.1% chance.

May be on the northern fringe here for both. CNE jack?

Yesterday's max through my 9 PM obs time was a mere 40, with dz/fog and 36 at 9. Then the wind arrived and temp hopped up 8° in 2 hours. U20s this morning.

The 20 events I noted include 12/96, 4/97, 2/01 and 3/01. Of the 20, 9 have come this century and 4 more in the '90s. The ORH ratio, about 2 per 7 years, is essentially the same as Farmington (Maine),which has had 35 such events in 127 years. 13 of those came this century, with 9 in the "oughts."

The data I've gathered from UCC and Climod show BTV with 14 storms of 18"+ in 96 year POR (31 years missing early 20th) and ORH with 20 such events in 71 years, close to 2X the frequency of BTV though their respective biggest (ORH 34.5, BTV 35.3) are pretty much the same.

Looked at the local long term co-op and found a weak positive signal. --Compared to the 127-year JJA average, 11 of those 20 summers were AN and the overall average was +0.60 --Compared to the appropriate decade averages, also 11 were AN and 20-summer average was +0.49. Looking at only the 10 least snowy winters, against LT for JJA the departure was only +0.24 but against the decades it was +0.73. Still pretty weak.

37 with dz in Augusta - yay! Probably just clouds at home - no SN but no reduction of pack either (till tomorrow.)

The Rangeley area lakes show up bright and white, but not the Belgrade lakes, which also remain almost totally ice covered. Odd.

Was a bit surprised to find an inch new at home, similar to the most I saw on Mile Hill, 6 miles south but 400' higher. Most accumulation came 1-4 PM and max temp was 32, after the 31/5 on Monday.

2006 stunk, as we had only 7.8" after Jan 31 with 2.8" in March. However, the 1st half of 2005 was great, with 2 events just under a foot plus 5.5" on 11-12, though that last one had a 12-18" forecast 24 hours before it arrived, backed off to 8-12 and still busted, except for the west side of Sebago with the jack. As Dendrite noted, 2010 was even worse than 2006.

0.1 or 0.2 flakes here - not enough to wet the ground. Still in the running for least snowy DJF or M in my 47 years in Maine - 0.2" so far, record holder is 2010 with 0.6".

Folks who give weight to day 16 on ANY model have left the path of wisdom.

If "full" prefaces the phrase, only your last definition seems logical, and it's what I use (though that doesn't make it right.) Leaf out/full leaf out are pretty nebulous terms anyway, especially since different plant species have way different leaf out timing - you'll see green leaves on snowdrops nearly 2 months before any show up on black locust. Today makes 12 straight with AN temps though I think tomorrow breaks the string. Nothing close to 2010 when Feb-Mar had a 46-day run. In both 2010 and 2012, continuous snow cover ended about 3/18 and this year will easily pass the equinox, though without reinforcements I don't think the pack will survive into April.

Madawaska cocorahs reported 7.6" thru 7 this morning and 44" OG. Somebody's having winter...

Not for here, I certainly hope - not even halfway. We've had 28 or colder in every May here, and usually more than one per month. We could do without a late (given early plant phenology) frost disaster.

Had a coating this morning and it was snowing lightly when I left home. Cocorahs observer about 10 miles to my west and 800' higher reported 1.4" at 6 AM. Still snowing at FVE at 4 PM.

First measurable SN this month, 0.1". Cocorahs from Temple, next town NW from Farmington, reported 1.4". That obs site is listed at 1,224' elev, mine's at 392'. The "plateau" section of Mile Hill had Rt 27snow covered, at about 800' - looked slippery but I tried not to find out.

Hearing stuff like that makes me wish, strongly, for some spells of normal to slightly BN temps. Another reason I despised 2010 was that the unrelenting run of AN temps resulted in plant phenology being a month-plus earlier than average. Then it all crashed and burned on May 11 when the temp dropped to 23, with mid 20s on the 12th and 13th. Apple blossoms, normally opening in late May, had been in full form and got totally smoked. All shoots on ash and oak died and some on maples (1st frost-kill I've seen on maple), forcing those trees to re-set buds and start over, kind of like they'd been hammered by gypsy moth caterpillars. For the fruit trees (and the local bumblebees that love apple blossoms) it was a barren season.