tamarack

Biologists estimated that 2/3 of NNJ deer perished in 1960-61. Winter came with a rush Dec 11-12 with 12-20" of low-teens powder when deer would normally still be fattening up on acorns and hickory nuts. That also greatly reduced the take during the state's firearm season (12th was opening day) such that an emergency 3-day season was added at the end of the month. Then the JFK inaugural storm dumped 15-25" atop an existing modest pack and 2+ subfreezing weeks later another 20-28" landed on Feb. 3-4. In NNE the deer have stands of evergreens in which to take shelter. Not so in NNJ and the critters had to wallow thru the depths in open hardwood stands. Friend and I attempted the 1/4 mile walk to the nearby reservoir on Feb.5 and gave up after 100 yards of navel-deep thrashing. (We were both 5-8/5-9 at the time, and much better fed than the deer.)

How long is their record? (No time to look atm) Longest I'd found elsewhere was NYC, back thru 1869 though snow depth wasn't consistently reported until 40-50 years later.

Which is terrible, but if 5 million (only a guess) have contracted the flu, that's a 0.3% mortality rate. We need to take care that the coronavirus doesn't hit millions in the US.

I'd be real cautious in accepting numbers (for any statistic) from a country where government totally controls the media. China also controls media but things have gone so far there, and they're so economically connected with the rest of the world, that it was in their self-interest to be more open with this issue.

Last blizzard warning here was Feb. 14, 2015. That didn't verify either - 1.5" (1/8 of low end of forecast range) with little wind. (Pi day 2017 did reach blizz criteria for 5-6 hours - only the 4th to do so in 22 winters - but wasn't blizz-warned.)

Those high percentages probably are a result of gross under-reporting of confirmed cases. 100% mortality in Iran? 55% in S. Korea? - zero credibility. That said, the mortality rate appears to be an order of magnitude higher than that for the seasonal flu.

25-30° AN? Maxima 35-40° AN? I'll take the under.

If so (and I don't know the verification rates) it's at the expense of precision. "55% chance of AN temps" offers a lot less info than "60s on D7". (Or 2-4" tomorrow)

We got on SM years ago because we were still on dial-up and grandkid pics took 10-15 minutes to download as e-mail attachments. FB would download in 60 seconds.

Given recent temp trends, guess AN and rack up accuracy points.

When did you move to SE Mass? (jk)

Same here for Jan 1 on, but OND were only slightly (6%) AN. Oct was +2.1 while Nov/Dec were -1.2. If we get 1" or so from this coming event, the 5-month precip would be very close to my average.

He knows as well as we do that the skiers (at least in numbers worth turning the bull wheels) disappear long before the snow. Even in 2012 wx cooled off after the March furnace - Eustis, just north of the 'Loaf and about 400' lower than its base lodge, had highs 20s to 40s from 3/26 thru 4/12 that year, with modest new snow but next to nothing for RA.

Or 2010, much the worst March here. Its 0.6" snow is the least for any DJFM since we moved to Maine 47 years ago. It's also my mildest March of 21 here, lacked the summery warmth of 2012 but it's the only March that failed to record at least one subzero morning - didn't even get down to 10 and 28 of 31 days were AN. 2nd wettest, too, its 6.44" trailing only 3/99. But that earlier month had 32" of snow with 2 storms of 14".

Current GYX odds have Farmington at 95% for 6+ and 73% for 8+. 50 miles south at the WSO those odds are 20% and 8%.

Not quite done in NNE - GYX has us under a WS watch for the Thursday event.

Don't know about cold out that far, but Madawaska and New Sweden have high 20s pack and the woods probably a foot more. Today likely took 1-2" off the depth but Thursday should add a bunch

Sat/Sun temps at my place were 37/-8 and 43/12 and it was low teens again this morning with full sun and light winds each day. Tubing about to burst and 24-7 boiling?

Considering the minimum, quite a nice day here with full sun, no wind and temps leaping upward. 3 mornings at -20 or colder this year, about average (78 such minima in 22 years.)

Or, climo usually wins. Current snow total is 8.5" BN for the date, and unless something serious pops between now and May, this will be just the 2nd winter in 50+ years (including some back when I lived in NNJ) that failed to produce a snowfall greater than 7". Just a garden-variety BN winter here, not a major ratter like in the MA.

Another subzero morning, probably another 40+ diurnal range. Yesterday was 23/-24.

Thru last month, NYC is running 30.2" for 1991-2020. Last time a 30-year norm was 30"+ came 1891-1920. The far-from-finished 2001-2030 period is 32.3".

Makes sense to me, as that's where I usually land and I'm fairly warm-blooded - short-sleeved shirt today and -20 or slightly colder. Only time I go with long sleeves is when I'm in the woods during the cold seasons. Used to be even more cold tolerant before taking a beta blocker for high BP - dropped my pulse from about 60 to low 50s. The almost always too warm GFS pulled a fast one this morning, dropping 2/27-28 temps at 2m and H9 by about 10F. Verbatim we'd get ZR/IP to SN. Still beyond 100 and more back and forth to come.

Hey, even a blind pig sniffs out the occasional acorn. And I don't think next Thursday will be an inland 970 stemwinder like on 12z GFW.

Thru yesterday GYX was 0.6" AN, which means they're probably dead on their norms today. (And BN tomorrow ) CAR's 97" is 129% of their average thru 2/19, I'm at 88% (data back only thru 98-99), and I'd guess the rest of the Maineiacs on the snow table are a bit AN.. Nice rainstorm on the gfs for next week. Inland runner. That model has over-warmed nearly every precip event since New Year's. The op run for 12z Tuesday had Augusta reaching upper 30s with snow-to-rain. Only missed by about 15° w/o a sniff of RA, not bad for the last run before flakes arrived.