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Everything posted by tamarack
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July 2026 numbers: Avg max: 76.6 0.3 AN Hottest day, 87 on the 2nd Avg min: 55.6 0.7 AN Coolest day, 46 on the 24th Mean: 66.6 0.5 AN Precip: 2.20" 1.72" BN Wettest day, 0.67" on the 22nd. After having 6 days with thunder in June, we had only one in July, tying 2010 and 2023 for the lowest. July '26 temps were +10 during the first 4 days and -1 on the next 27. The month had 2 noteworthy events, first being the HHH of 1-3, upper 80s (avoiding 90+ thanks to the trees) with low 70s TD. 2nd was the brief squall on the 16th. It dropped 1/4" in 5 minutes with gusts approaching 50 mph and cut the power, causing our on-demand generator to run for 7.4 hours.
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Great summary. Some comparisons: Total snowfall: 86.9" 98% of average (88.4") The average ratio was 13.75:1, easily the highest of our winters (avg is just above 10:1). Even without the Jan 25-27 storm (19.6"/0.77" LE), the 12.1 to 1 ratio would be highest. Days with 1"+: 131 (123 consec.) About a week above average Days with 10"+: 74 (69 consec.) About a week below average Days with 20"+: 29 (17 consec.) Total was average, consec. 5 days BN Peak depth: 28" on Jan 26 during the 19.6" fluff bomb (25:1 ratio). Settling was rapid. Average is 29", median 26". SDDs: 1,526 203 BN but slightly above the median. That 19.6" storm is 10th biggest in our 28 winters here. 2nd biggest for 25-26 was 8.5", modest but well-timed (Dec 23-24) for the grandkids' sledding.
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Got a nice drink (2"+) from Arthur with little wind. 200 miles east, Public Lands' Cutler tract had lots of trees flattened. Had 0.09" overnight, event total 0.16". From Tuesday thru yesterday, each subsequent QPF was lower than the previous one, finally fixing on <0.1" for both yesterday and last night - both verified.
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Some years back my sister-in-law gave us a gift card for Red Lobster. Unfortunately, the 3-4 RLs in Maine had closed - couldn't compete with the locals. We had to go to northern Mass to use the card; combined it with a Bible conference in Concord, NH so didn't need a special trip. GYX overnight forecast (<0.1") was on target (sadly) - 0.07". Radar isn't very promising, either. NNJ where I grew up got pounded, 3-7". We'd lived in the hills, avoiding flood damage, but the Pompton/Passaic river system flooded frequently. Unfortunately, the Passaic took the lives of two 10-year-olds yesterday.
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Shortly after moving to Maine in 1973, I read that more than half the world's people used wood as a heat source, and I thought that to be sort of quaint. At our NNJ home in NNJ, we had a fireplace, but it was more for atmosphere than heat. We moved from a Fort Kent apartment to our first house (tiny 2-story) in mid-May 1977 and couldn't wait to add a woodstove. I'd installed a Jotul 602 the day before the move. We've run woodstoves as a major heat source ever since - no chimney fires (yet).
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Still waiting. Looks like we get about 1/4" at best. That 10" event is beyond my experience - tops was 8.90" on 27-28, 1971 at NNJ, PRE dropped 3.8" during daylight on the 27th then Doria 5.1" in the wee hours of 8/28. PWM had 9.62" on 10/21/996, also 2.78" the day before. I'm confident there was a 10/24 in there someplace.
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Acclimation can occur without moving a bit. Sometime next month or early September we'll have a morning in the mid-upper 30s and it will feel quite chilly. In January that would be shirtsleeve weather. The early heat this month hit hard due to tall dews and not having had much real heat before that. With several weeks of mostly CoC since then, another big heat next month will take some more acclimation. Could happen - we've had only 2 heat waves here, each 3 straight 90+, and one came last year. In 28 summers, we've had 90+ on 23 days. June leads with 9 and August is 2nd with 7. Only 3 in July and 2 each for May/September. 30 thunder days in AK? That's twice my average here and last year we had a mere 5. Go far NW for SVR?
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I lean ACATT by preference (not forecasting) but think we'll finish July AN, thanks to its first 4 days. 7/1-4 was 10.3° AN while the next 19 days have run 0.6° BN and I think the remainder will be close to norms here. Enter August 2, 1975! PWM: 103 BGR: 102 BHB: 100 at water's edge. All 3 all-timers. Since my first swim in Maine salt water (August 1952), Hot Saturday is my only time of swimming in actual warm salt water here, just south of Otter Cliffs in Acadia.
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We have a long "plateau" here, and since our averages are "live" (every daily entry affects them), the numbers here are as of today. Our daily mean warms above 65 on July 1 (June's warmth added a full week of 65+) and that lasts thru August 10. Today's average is 66.04, the only day (currently) above 66, so it's all downhill from here. Given the short/mid forecasts, I think this summer will end without any 66+. Last night's 0.49" brought the month to 1.94". Average thru 7/22 is 2.82". Might cut the deficit a bit if the storms hit us this afternoon, but not much chance for 0.88" and it's dry for the next 4-5 days.
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The forester with whom we contracted in 2011 for forest inventory and modeling once commented, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." When Maine Public Lands contracted an inventory in 1999 (different contractor), the DOD had yet to remove the GPS scramble for non-military users. We had the foresters run their GPS units for 30 minutes on both the first and last of the 12-point cruise lines, with the goal of having the hundreds of scrambled hits averaging close to true location. We assumed the hits were truly random rather than biased.
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Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
0.21" brings the month to exactly 1.00". Yesterday's gloomy clouds made for a high of only 63. With a low of 47, the mean was 11° BN. Looks like July 2026 won't set a new warmest month, though I expect it to finish AN (currently 2.7 AN). -
Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Still at cloudy 65°, not a great sign of convection to come. -
If the variance within that -/-2 F, once one has hundreds/thousands of observations, the averages should be valid to tenths at least. (Unless there's a consistent bias toward either + or -.) Works that way in forest inventory, at least. Coldest I could find outside mtn location in New England is 47 at Fox Brook ME. There's probably about 10 Fox Brooks in Maine. My guess is the one on T17R12, immediately west from the town of Allagash.
