tamarack

This coming Monday marks 30 years since MWN's windiest met summer day - the 24-hour average was 99 mph, IIRC. Friends were getting married at our (then) church in South Gardiner, with an outdoor reception under a large tent, and the wind would work the 4-foot "pins" upward such that we had to monitor them while carrying sledge hammers.

Genny shut down 8:40 PM, 3rd longest run since it was installed in 2020, though 94 hours lower than Dec 2023. My wife had to switch lanes a couple times on Rt 2 coming home from Farmington, but no detours, just dodging tree tops. Any of those tall pines around Flying Pond get blown down? Couple years back, Maine Cabin Masters had to do a full rebuild on a camp near Flying after several big ones smashed it on Dec 18, 2023.

Still running the genny, approaching 3.5 hr. Read that 6,000+ w/o power in Franklin County. Its total population is a bit under 30k.

At 1 PM I noted that we were in a severe-warned block, but when I went to find the parameters, GYX had dropped the SVR as the storm had weakened. First drops at 1:10 then at 1:15 RA+ and gust after gust arrived - trees pushed around like I hadn't seen since Dec 2023, probably well into the 40s. Strong but short of SVR criteria. 1:18 the genny kicked in (still running now at 2:15) and the heavy rain backed down by 1:20, nearly stopped at 1:25. 0.29" in the gauge, mostly in the 1:15-1:20 span. During the lighter rain a surprisingly wet hummingbird landed on the feeder only 3 feet from me and had a long drink. Only 2 strikes, both distant but enough that the dog hid. I walked out our gravel road, saw that the outage was caused elsewhere, and confirmed that none of the 120-foot-plus pines had fallen.

Another Bald Mountain to consider is in Oquossoc, part of Rangeley. It's about 1.3 miles with 900+feet elevation gain to the obs platform, which offers wonderful 360° views - Mooselook Lake to the West and Rangeley Lake to the east, plus lots of mountains. Last time I climbed it was November 2021, with my son-in-law plus 6 of their 7 kids (the 2-y.o stayed home but the 5 y.o. had a blast) along with 2 neighbor kids. It's a mile of uphill stroll thru forest then 0.3 miles of steeper, rockier but not vertigo steep, to the summit. Not much smoke today, but surprisingly breezy along with the forecast lower TD.

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch. Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday. (Or got smoked out) Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog. All 3 passed to our west.

All the hail that has fallen on our yard in 28 years (going on 29) would fit in a 2-pound coffee can. I was sad to have missed the 2007 storm, but happy that I still had a garden.

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view. The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007. Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad. Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice. Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen. Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted. Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

The smoke has moved here. Sun tried and failed to work about noon, and by 1:30 we had that same dingy yellow/brown that dendrite posted. The only thicker smoke I can recall was when I was working at a forest fire. No 90s here; possibly not even 80s.

And the biggest windthrow events since we moved to Maine in 1973 were straight line winds. In November of 1974, about 12" of wet snow followed by strong NW gales flattened about 3,000 acres on the SW corner of Baxter Park. Because Governor Baxter's deeds of trust, the only salvage permitted was along the park roads for safety reasons. In 1977 all that well-seasoned wood was consumed by a wildfire. The other 3,000-acre blowdown was only 10-15 miles northwest from the Baxter damage - a powerful southeast storm (we had gusts to 50 at Fort Kent) in late October 1980 tipped the spruce-fir stands on T4R11 (mostly); I saw that area from the air in June of 1981 and it looked like a giant version of oats lodged by an August downpour. Essentially all that wood was salvaged by Great Northern.

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

Those nice echoes shrank to only sprinkles when they arrived here, a common phenomenon since late last month. However, clouds thru late morning mean the sun has a lot of work to do if we're to reach the forecast 93.

Do it. Chronic Lyme is something you don't want to acquire - it can mess up all kinds of functions and sometimes be life threatening. A woman in our church has had chronic Lyme for 5-6 years and it's still causing her lots of problems.

Farther south at Central Park, Dec 2015 average temp would've been 2.7° AN - for November. The 50.8° average was 6.2° warmer than any other NYC December since records began in 1869, a stand-alone gap that had to be many SDs ahead of the #2 mark.

That cell has been holding together quite nicely. Those 70+ dbz colors aren't very common around here. And there's another one farther NW for our evening entertainment.

Forgot this thread and posted the info below on the Ju-ply one: Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Might add '38's drag race from the Outer Banks to LI, and a mid-September timing when the water temp is at/near peak.

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly. The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long. In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake. Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986. The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months. Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ. Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

Beats my longest - 6 days from the Jan 1953 ice storm on the hills north and west from NYC. 2nd place is 101 hours from the Dec 18, 2023 gales/flood and 3rd was 90 hours in Jan 1998. We were fortunate in that last one - a single break between Brunswick Avenue and our place 400' away would've meant 2 weeks. (Our phone was out for 13 days.)

Nice. Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

We lived in Gardiner from late October 1985 thru mid-May 1998. August 1988 compared to averages for our 13 Augusts had 3 levels: 1-13: 74° nearly 8° AN 14-18: 65° average 19-31: 59° 3.5° BN Modest temps compared to the real hot spots (instrument was within some pines), but impressive averages.

Memories of sweating while doing brush saw thinning north of Flagstaff Lake that summer. June had one hot spell, but the 6 weeks July 4 thru mid-August had some of the highest dews I've encountered in Maine. The 8/1-14 stretch of swamp-dews put mold all over things in our basement, only time I've seen that. IIRC, PWM had a 77° TD during that spell and a site in BGR (don't know where) reported 93° and 68% RH one afternoon, which would be a TD of about 81.

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart. The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE. Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.