tamarack

Major leaf drop near our place from last evening's rain - ash trees are almost into stick season. However, the maples are showing some lovely reds/oranges, especially along Route 27 on Mile Hill.

Data from CDC. Looks like 2 "epicenters", FL/GA(VA) and MA/NY. I wonder if neotropical migratory songbirds most commonly infected have seasonal concentrations in those 2 areas. certainly doesn't point to a direct relationship between warming climate and EEE; one would think that a south-to-north gradient would be more logical. Or as Will has noted, it's more complex than a simple insect/human interaction. And although the disease nasty - has been about 40% fatal (30 of 72) in that data set, how panicky should we be over 7 cases/year? (Top year in that data was 2010, with 15.) Eastern equine encephalitis virus neuroinvasive disease cases reported by state of residence, 2009–2018

Couple weeks ago there were big headlines of "30 Billion Fewer Birds", I think as compared to 30 years ago. Unfortunately, but typical of MSM, there was no further context. Was it 30 billion fewer than 100 billion birds? A trillion? Given the vagaries of wildlife populations, a 3% decrease is a statistical blip that could result from a single nest-wrecking spring gale running through where the neotropical migrant species breed, but a 30% drop warrants serious investigating. (IMO, the biggest factor for those species is land use in there winter ranges.)

No doubt the climate is warming, but extremes are nothing new. We had mid-upper 70s the 4th week of October at 47N in 1979. (And missed the snowstorm 2 weeks earlier - too far north.)

Difference was the evening event on 23-24, which 1.7" to 2.9" on the Route 2 corridor from Rumford to Newport along with some spots 20-40 miles north of there. And almost nothing to the south.) High for the month was 76, tied with '94 and '96 as coolest max. Low was 27 on the 19th, slightly below my average for the month's coolest. 3.18" RA was 1/2" BN but kicked the median into a virtual tie with February for driest median. 2.11" RA was recorded on the 24th though about half came on the 23rd after my 9 PM obs.

55/30 yesterday, coolest daily max and mean of the month, pulling the final average to 2.7° BN. 2nd coolest of 22 Septembers and average max was coolest while average min was 5th.

Another windshield scraper this morning, with ash leaves drifting down. That species is more than 1/3 of the trees near the house and they're about 75% bare.

Similar results but different sequence, as more than 3/4 of the month's RA came in the last week, 70% on 9/24 alone. The 3.18" is a half inch below the average while a bit higher than the median.

Lots of falling leaves yesterday, mostly white ash but a bunch from the sugar maples too. Color is decent and will likely peak here later this week.

In 21 years I've had 13 Grinches (snow-wrecking rains during the period Dec. 21-28, my subjective definition) plus 3 more with the same horrible wx but bare ground at the solstice. Of the 5 non-Grinches, only 2017 meets my (undefined) criteria as an anti-Grinch, though 2010 was close. 2018 made up for 2017 with the warmth and 2.17" RA, Grinchiest one of all. 2015 was a bit warmer but a lot less RA and no snow to melt. If February hadn't been so warm, I probably would have given it an A. That kind of tainted it a bit....but that winter had very strong bookends. Good December and early January and epic March. 2016-17 matches 1960-61 as the only winters in which I've experienced 2 storms of 20"+, and like that earlier wither there was a 3rd biggie. The Pi Day storm brought only 15.5" (of 7:1 denseness and wind pack) but it was just my 4th event that met blizzard criteria at my tree-sheltered location. (Others were 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 1/27-28/15.)

I think that's the trail under the summit lift - assuming they still have the same general configuration. The then-named Mountain Chair climbed up to about 3,000' (in 15 minutes - excruciating on a bitter day) and then one poled across nearly level ground to climb aboard the summit chair. Back in 71-72, that upper lift line trail was called Scotch Mist, keeping with the area's Highland theme, and it was not only narrow and bony, but had all those steel obstacles down the middle. No thanks! During the '71 ski week I went to the summit about 3 times after the 8" Tuesday snowfall, and it didn't look like more than a handful of tracks had been made by Saturday early (GE used to offer an hour of free skiing 7:30-8:30 for "conditions check.) The trail under the Mountain Chair had poles down the middle too (duh!) but was about 3X as wide and the moguls were all snow, not thinly covered boulders. The day after the snow it was near zero all day with winds gusting to 50 and the sun a dim spot through the cornmeal flurries. I wouldn't even try the slo-mo Mountain Chair that day, especially after getting a touch of frostbite just walking from car to lodge. Fortunately there was a 2,500' lift that gained about 500' elevation in 5 minutes, and I rode that one almost to closing time. After about 2:30 I'd get to the top and say "Last run - can't stand the ride." Then I'd make lots of turns and be warmed up and do it again. I don't think there were ever a dozen skiers on that hill all day, and by late afternoon maybe just one.

A week too early. The Grinch is rarely denied.

Learned to ski parallel there during a ski-week almost 50 years ago. (Incredibly inexpensive - entire ski-weeks were just $45 and they cut that in half for that January!) Went back for a short weekend a year later and still regret not talking Upper FIS. I was skiing as good as I ever achieved, perhaps low-end intermediate, conditions were good, the trail is wide and was deserted. Did ski the much narrower black diamond (name forgotten) to the left of the main lift line - used to be The Cliff - and had a great run.

There's some seasonal differences, IMO. 10° AN in July/August is pretty torchy, sniffing mid 90s in some SNE locales. At the other end, I'm not sure +15 in mid January warrants the term, especially in colder climates. Is 34° on January 15 at CAR a torch? (Not that it really matters )

Does "rural area" equal "suburbia", as the above seems to imply? And who gets to determine the social contract, to quantify the enormous external costs, and to decide what and how subsidies would be eliminated? Maybe nobody will tell me not to live where I do, but property tax rates could be augmented by a giant national (or beyond) surcharge to account for how selfishly wasteful we're supposedly living, which could force my hand. We burn locally harvested wood as our major heat source, keep the thermostat at 62 (woodstove is in our living room) and haven't run the AC since 2013. However, we live 500' from our nearest neighbor on a gravel road, so in some people's minds that would put a big financial bullseye on our place even though our carbon footprint seems relatively modest, at least by US standards. Rain has arrived in Augusta - still light so I'm heading out before it gets serious (if it ever does today.)

That was a much bigger issue than smoking back in the stone age when I was in HS. Our school had 1,000+ students and I don't think I ever noted more than 8-10 at the school-established smoking wall. However, we were a 30-minute drive from Greenwood Lake, NY where the drinking age was 18, with NJ requiring 21. Lots of draft card loaning for ID purposes. Also, more than a few wrecks/injuries/fatalities as inebriated youngsters tried to navigate homeward. Our community beach had a tradition of being "decorated" by pranksters the night before Labor Day, and one year they managed to load a huge tire (as in 8' tall, big "Butler Tire" painted on its side) from a dealership 3-4 miles away, flopped it in the middle of the beach, and filled it to overflowing with beer cans scavenged from the main route to the NY bars.

The proverbial "silver bullet" which of course does not exist. The bias against marijuana has led to a paucity of formal medical testing, to determine not only effectiveness but optimal dosages and means of application. Some proponents hold that such testing is superfluous ("of course it works, but you're too stupidly biased to admit it!") and even harmful as the "placebo group" would be unfairly deprived of its benefits. I see the same attitude for non-psychoactive hemp - far more productive than forests in every way, needs neither fertilization nor pesticides, blah, blah, blah. Any large-scale agricultural/forestry monoculture is subject to problems with diseases and insects, There's no silver bullets there, either. Hemp can be a very valuable agricultural product for many uses, but like pot it's not the answer to everything.

Approaching moderate around my place as well, though the significant white ash component gives a bias toward earliness. That species is at peak here with 25% leaf drop while the rest of the trees show lower color and very little leaf drop.

Only 0.20" yesterday afternoon, though Doppler estimate was much higher. However, we were right on the west edge of the heavier stuff, and at our distance from GYX the beam was hitting whatever was at 5-6000' over our heads. Saw Detroit (Maine) with 3.20".

Showers were in the forecast but I didn't see any indication of how heavy they might be. Doppler estimated precip from about my place to points east (about 50 miles) show 2" to 4"+. I usually find somewhat less in the gauge than the estimate, but there are flash flood watches/warnings up for that area. It's also the region that got the most rain last night. Finishing up here in Augusta, probably 1/4-1/2".

Cooldown for about a week, then the next 7 months were all AN. Novie thru March ranged from +3 to +7. With winter wx to match.

When the website says "Request a quote" you know it's big bucks.

LEW was reporting heavy rain at 2 PM. Getting dark here in Augusta with some nice though sparse C-G to the south. Warned for the towns just south of here, though it looks like the north fringe will clip us.

Not asking for much. At Farmington, those AN departures would set all time warmth records for every month Oct-Mar.

When I shut off the computer at 10 PM, it looked like the really good stuff would be just to our north. We'd had a couple of heavy showers but only 2-3 minutes each, at most 1/4" by that time. Brings the month's total to 2.63". 21-year average is 3.67", which I doubt happens, while the median of 2.98" (lowest for any month) might be in play.