Shack

Hey, Tony. Saw you lurking. (off topic for forum, but couldn't send PM) My daughter lives in St. Louis. I've been giving her updates on tomorrow's system for a week and she is now preparing for a Mega-Sleetfest. Man, that's a lot of little frozen balls that are gonna fall in her neighborhood. (cue the jokes) Almost 3" if you believe the HRRR Back on topic: Ugh. At the operationals. Anyone have a DGEX to spark joy?

12z Euro. ouch.

I-70 Special through Missouri. Totals up with this run. Cut these in half(which we usually need to)and it's still a nice one.

Interesting AFD from Riverton, Wyoming this morning(isn't that where MetalWX did his internship years ago?) A little flare in the prose to break up the monotony of talking about forecasts of 3-4 FEET of snow, I guess. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2024 Things remain quite active as we enter the last weekend of 2024. In addition, we also continue to have the contrast between West of the Divide and East of the Divide. So, as common sense would dictate, we will again divide the discussion between these regions. And I will try not to make it as long as War and Peace, maybe as long as the Count of Monte Cristo, or to those wanting something more modern, The Stand by Steven King. West of the Divide...After being largely quiet much of the evening, the next round of snow has moved into the western mountains, but most is fairly light as this time. To compare the rounds of snow, we need another analogy. Yesterday, we used Italian food. Today, we will use boxing. And, being an aging member of Gen X, the obvious choice is the most dominant of that generation, Mike Tyson. Yesterday`s snow was the jabs, just to set everything up. For around the next 36 hours or so, these will be the body blows, to wear you down. We expect one round of snow through the day today, and while there could be some decent accumulation, most rates should be on the moderate side. The areas with the warnings, mainly the Tetons and Salt and Wyoming Range have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of picking up at least 6 inches of additional snow. An interesting wrinkle is that the heaviest snow may shift further south with a greater chance of over a foot in the Salt and Wyoming Range rather than the Tetons. One difference is that there will be more wind today with the proximity of an 140 knot streak, and the area in the right front quadrant of the jet. Many of the higher elevations have a near certainty of wind gusts above 40 mph, and even some of the valley locations, especially open areas like north of the Jackson Hole airport, could have wind gusts to 30 mph to blow and drift the snow. We will continue the warnings as is for now. There could be another lull this evening, or when we are in between rounds. Then the next round begins, this one with some body blows and a couple of stronger right crosses. Snowfall rates may be higher in this situation, possibly over an inch an hour as there will be some left front quadrant jet energy over the area through the period. There is another factor though. With southwest flow increasing ahead of the cold front, temperatures will warm ahead of it. Some guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures rising anywhere from minus 4 to as warm as 0 Celsius. This could raise snow levels to anywhere from 6500 to as high as 8500 feet in southwestern Wyoming. This could lead to mixing with rain for a while in the valleys on Sunday afternoon, keeping accumulations down somewhat during this time period. Things worsen again on Sunday night through, as the strongest push of snow as the main trough axis and cold front pass through the region, mainly in northwestern Wyoming. This is the uppercut, the punch that most of Tyson`s opponents feared. As the front passes, colder air will move in and drop the snow levels back to the valley floors. With the increased forcing from the front and trough passage, along with flow switching to a more favored northwesterly direction, snowfall rates should become heavy again.Probabalistic guidance gives at least a 4 out 5 chance of 12 inches or more across the northern mountains from Sunday 12Z to Monday 12Z. Winds could get rather gusty as well with the frontal passage Sunday evening as well, bringing very difficult travel conditions. The heaviest of the snow should be over by sunrise Monday as the system moves away to the east, with improving conditions through the day. Guidance diverges after this, with some building a ridge and some keeping zonal flow and snow showers going. Given the more important concerns in the shorter term, we kept continuity for the most part to focus more on this in the future.

This is interesting. GFS now wants to close off a piece of energy in the southwest. Big, longitudinally co-located surface high incoming from Canada. Squashes it into the Gulf, but, hey still a ways out.

Making a darn good start at getting their 40". https://www.skicb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

Euro says first snow for the area this weekend. I'm excited as I'm heading into STL for the Thanksgiving holiday with family and to watch Saint Louis Ballet's Nutcracker on Saturday!! A few mood flakes would be great to set the atmosphere for the show.

57deg this morning at Macon and, again, not a drop in sight. Gonna be a waterless October here in the heart of Georgia. Been warm, anecdotally, but our average is sitting at 0.7deg below normal for the month.

Insult to injury for the folks on central-west coast. Target shifting south since yesterday. GFS showing a metro Tampa hit. Euro 50 miles south. Had a rental at Anna Maria booked for the family arriving Thursday, October 17th. The rental company finally cancelled three days ago. So, they fared much better and it looked not-so-bad at Sanibel, so we were looking on Friday at rentals there for the same period. Tropics say, "No, Sir. I told you, you are not getting a beach visit this year." A little pathetic to complain, though, about my interrupted vacation when so many of our AmWx friends are still without power.

Hunkered down here in Macon, where my friend, the Euro, has me in the eye at 0900z. Hoping to walk outside around 5:00am and look up and see stars. (after picking my way around all the fallen trees) This whole, NHC Track-vs-Model Track has me really curious as to the final outcome. Only hours from it being at Latitude 33'45" and they're 80-90 miles apart. NHC still says slap-dab, downtown Atlanta is where the center passes. Most models have it closer to Athens. Either way I think lots of folks will be without power and, because I have my priorities right, have my generator fueled so my coffee maker will work in the morning:)

frank, Any idea of the mile marker? My place is on 106 just east of Scaly Mountain Outdoor Center. That's about 6 miles west of Highlands.

316, maybe the GFS and Euro are gonna be right..... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260852 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter, with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. This motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning. After landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system. After 48 h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges with the baroclinic system. The latest track guidance has nudged a little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved a bit to the east.

Had the same thinking all day. "What's up with that track?," in that NHC has it centered waay west of what the big-boy models project. But, hoping that GFS et al, were right and the highest wind field stayed a little east(of me. Sorry, Augusta). What Boone said is likely spot-on. But, topic for another thread, how does a model initialize "stronger" when the data at onset of the model run is fed to into the program as "existing conditions?"

Firsts for everything, I guess. Spit out my Mountain Dew driving home this afternoon around 5:00 when I heard this: "The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bibb County," (Macon, GA) NHC still has track centered to the west of MCN by 50 miles, but looking at the HAFS-B, it takes the eye pretty much directly over us here in Macon. Guess I'll need to take my bloomers off the clothesline.

Looks like HPC has the track centered about 40 miles west of my home in Macon. That would put us in the windy side of things. GFS has the center east of us, Euro has it west.

Gorgeous morning sunrise. 46deg and breezy. I am at 4,500 feet atop Curtiss Mountain. That's just outside Highlands and a little northeast of Scaly. My daughter is marrying a truly good man today at the Rockwood Lodge, perched gloriously atop this little knob. Family from Macon, Georgia is here, as well as the grooms's folks from St. Louis. I am truly, full to the brim, today. Joy, favor, humbled. Macon has been our home but we have always felt a strong connection with these hills since my daughter was born and we first ventured up here to see her play in the snow one stormy January. Today offers a weather nerd's happy feelings of tracking a little front coming through this afternoon mixed with the reality that it may mean a soggy ceremony. Yes, we are doing this outdoors, today. But I am at peace, and my daughter, who shares my weather love, has just smiled and reminded me that she's always liked a good rainy afternoon, too. These pages have long been a fun place for me to read and occasionally post. I appreciate those of you who have long carried the board's conversations. Say a prayer for my daugher, Roxy, and her fiance', Ben today. And, for their mama's and daddy's. Shack

Under Severe Thunderstorm Warning. 1.5" hail signature headed my way......

Another good Tahoe-Area link to watch. Right now, the Snowcat and and a bobcat trying desperately to keep ahead of accumulations. https://portal.hdontap.com/s/embed/?stream=downhillDeck_tahoedonner&ratio=16:9

I see Donner is shut for the day. Hope you're having an epic trip. I would've liked to make it out. Gonna be one to remember, for sure. Post pics !

My daughter lives in St. Louis. Yesterday's high was 86deg and they set a record. Then, this morning , STL reported an overnight low of 26deg and "Light Snow" from 3:55a.m. until 4:55a.m. That's the definition of "weather-whiplash."

Snow for Larry. And, where's Metallic now? Snow in Waycross.

Four days ago at MCN the low was 16. Today, the high was 77. I'll take it.

NC folks: GFS still giving hope.....(yeah, I know)

Warner Robins AFB reporting sustained 40mph wind with gust to 68.

MCN at 64deg. Wind at 24 with gust to 43mph. Squall line incoming and butt-puckered.