Jebman

Instant JINX.

Euro is drunk. In a few more runs it'll shape up.

Modeling continues to indicate higher probabilities for freezing precip over south central TX for Sunday night/Monday. Along with expected sub freezing ambient temps, there may be travel impacts. I was so hopeful this crap could be avoided this winter down here. Surely we have paid our penance for winter nonsense last late Jan/early Feb with that devastating three quarter inch icestorm!

I will catch up on my sleep come Summer. I got model runs to keep up with, affiliate marketing to study and now I am also learning algebra at Khan Academy.

Yuck. Temps with the arctic front in south central TX, are expected to fall to 10 degrees. Highs only in the upper 20s, I think Monday? I am going to lose all my beloved plants, have to start completely over again. Thank goodness spring starts for us March 1. We are supposed to be 60 this time of year. This ten degree bull is getting ridiculous. And guess what, not even one frackin' DROP of liquid non freezing rain with the front! Not one drop! Not one! No one on this forum had the heart to admit to me that a near record frigid monster high pressure, was gonna slam hard right into Texas! This is Year 3 of the Drought. No rain. Texas is gonna blow away. Even less water than California! Diaspora is imminent! Too many people moving to Texas, wonderful folks from Central America coming on in and also millions of people from other parts of the country! Jobs are incredible here! Never seen so much construction! Everyone is sucking up the aquifer water too! Boy I am gonna love it when I have no more well water and we are all fighting tooth and nail for the little water left in the Colorado River!

That's just great! Not only does the arctic air get to Buda on Sat night instead of Sunday, now there is a chance of frzra! THAT'S JUST GREAT! We were doing so well! It was so nice in south Texas! We had made it almost into mid January with 60s! I want cold to hit the Mid Atlantic, NOT south Texas! And just where does the 1042 arctic high go? Right in the heart of Texas! That's just great.

Super hot in south central TX. We started out with 102 degree days along with 78 degree dewpoints. It felt like 119. I was getting sick. I had to work out in it. Then just 103 to 104 day after day, with 67 degree dews for weeks. A few days we hit 108. That hellish sun killed so many of my moms plants! That's what I remember most about the weather in 2023.

I am now a new Tool fan now. Love the tracks! Brand new snow jebwalk music!!!!!!

I have a question for Mets, but did not want to post this in the discussion topic. The base state is warmer now. Does this mean far worse hurricanes, thunderstorms, tornadoes?

I am VERY happy to hear that. Sunday can use as much pow as they can get.

Concerning 6 inches of snow in 24 hours vs 24 inches of snow in 6 hours, I'd take BOTH. That's a 30 inch snowstorm in 30 hours and I'd be digging massive amounts of snow. Not to mention an EPIC jebwalk. And the storm has got to be tracked on all the models. We're not going to miss even ONE model run! Well, maybe YOU will, but I WON'T! This is why I never got married. I am ALREADY married. To all the models, the ensembles and the ski resorts like Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth and Alta, Utah and many, many others. I am married to snow and severe weather and floods. And Hurricanes and 75 foot storm surges associated with our exciting new ultra heated base state.

Snow weenies are gonna track. Because that's what we do. And because you all know, all too well, that the storm is there.

LMAO !

We have a winnah.

I'd have said we have a warmer base state.

Cue the menacing Jaws score

You'll get it, soon.

Snowshoe mtn is getting moderate snow

Let's bring it home! We have chances incoming! Don't miss a single model run from now on! We've got this! Mods, Pin this motherfucker!

Sig material for sure.

I really hope with all my heart, that that FRIGID high does NOT end up in Texas! We would be 40 degrees below normal! Or even WORSE!

Shoulda swatted the damn butterfly. Now we are getting flooded with pac puke.

Panic over THIS! AFD for Dubuque Iowa: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KDVN 082321 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 521 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for entire area starting tonight at 6 PM lasting through early Wednesday morning. Heavy wet snow, and blowing snow will lead to hazardous travel across the area, especially later tonight through Tuesday evening. - A couple embedded bouts/windows heavier snow bursts expected that could lead of to over 1 inch an hour snowfall rates and rapid accumulation. - Additional chances for snow expected Wednesday night/early Thursday and bigger system again Friday into the weekend with more accumulation possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The Storm... A potentially high end winter storm warning still appears to be on track, as sfc cyclogenesis is seen currently blossoming acrs the TX/OK Panhandle region. Sfc pressure falls and kink in the gradient fields show the way of sfc low propagation toward central to east central IL by midday tomorrow. Ensemble low center depth at that time is projected to be around 985 MB or a bit lower. Several system lift mechanisms such as isentropic and F-gen are very impressive tonight with stout warm air advection(WAA) surge, translating into classic TROWAL fed Def Zone for secondary punch on Tuesday. The WAA tonight will be fed by unseasonable precipital water feed(PWATs) of 0.60 inches 150-200% of normal for this time of year. Fcst soundings and comparing them to upstream trends suggest top- down deepening saturation, with low to mid level saturation depths up over H6 mb late tonight through at least late Tue morning, including the -12 to -18C dendritic layer. The incoming amount of lift by a closed off low pressure complex utilizing this saturation depth by rule should wring out up to double the amounts of the PWAT values, thus 0.60 goes to 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. Most of it probably being snow that translates into a foot with just base 10:1 LSRs, and that may be low with probably LSR`s varying from 10 to 12:1 along prime forcing/saturation swaths. THey will trend higher to 13:1 or higher later in the event with in-wrapping cold conveyor into departing def zone, but that will be past the time of the occurrence of the heavy snow producing processes Convective profiles later tonight on the soundings and cross- sections show some slantwise/upright convective processes after midnight into at least mid Tue morning acrs much of the CWA, as well as MUCAPEs above the forced layer possibly to support some isolated lightning discharges in robust friction filled snow columns. Thus like the previous shift noted, that convective enhancement may make for localized higher amount swaths. Snowfall rates will look to be 1- 2 inches an hour late tonight into Tue morning in the prime snow bands with these kind of profiles, and would not be surprised if a few areas experience 2-3 inch/hr rates for a few hours in the optimum lift windows. Conceptual prime forcing swath of the developing def zone on left flank of the H7 mb low would suggest the heavy snow axis may lay out from southwest of Ottumwa IA, to between IA City and the Quad Cities, and to the Freeport IL area. This area not far off from the prime conjunction of strong positive/upward omegas, -3 to -5C H85 temps, and 1000-H5 MB layer RH values of over 90-95% which lay out generally along and west of the MS RVR and then lean into far NW IL. The currently progged brisk omegas in these saturated profiles/cold enough temps would point at snowfall amounts of 10-15 inches in the prime swaths by Tue evening. Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area. After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities, and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track verifies. Winds: Mix out gusts in tightening pressure gradient on backside of departing system look to be in the upper 30 KT range, thus 40-45 MPH north to northwest gusts will complicate things with plenty of drifting and some blowing. Depending on the consistency of the snow pack and intensity of the lingering snow, can`t rule out near blizzard or blizzard like conditions in rural/open areas late Tuesday into Tuesday night. But that will have to be assessed for an update in headlines as the finale of the event unfolds and condition`s/visibility trends area noted tomorrow afternoon and evening. Wind chills in the low teens to single digits by Wed morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Key Messages: 1. Below normal temperatures Wednesday through Monday. 2. Active pattern continues through the long term period with several chances of snow Wednesday night through Monday. Wednesday through Thursday: Zonal (west to east) flow in in place across the CONUS to start the period at 12 UTC on Wednesday as we sit in the base of a longwave trough. Ridging is forecast to move quickly across the area during the day with a relaxing pressure gradient across the area. Some blowing and drifting will be ongoing on Wednesday morning but it will become less widespread as the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds come down. A fast moving clipper system will move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be cooler with lows in the teens above zero. This will lead to snow to liquid ratios across the area ranging from 10 to 15 to 1 across the area making it a drier snow. The better lift and moisture will be along and north of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line. Snowfall amounts up to an inch are possible west of the Mississippi River with 1 to 2 inches possible in Clinton, Jackson, Carroll, Whiteside and Jo Daviess Counties. Subtle Shortwave ridging and quiet weather will follow for the day on Thursday. Thursday night into Saturday: A digging 500 MB trough will move into the Plains Thursday night into Friday. Currently, the 500 mb trough is forecast to transition from a wave with neutral tilt to more of a negative tilt as it moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley and then lift into southwest Ontario by 12 UTC on Saturday. Overall this is a similar track to the current storm system. Current model runs spread precipitation into the area Thursday night and continuing into early Saturday morning. Colder is forecast to move into the area later in the day on Friday once the surface low passes leading to a high snow to liquid ratios. There will also be a strong pressure gradient with this storm system so it will be windy through the event with blowing snow possible especially Friday into Saturday morning. Accumulating snow looks like likely from this storm system. Saturday night through Sunday night: It will turn noticeably colder Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are forecast to range from 0 to -5*F. The coldest air of the year will move into the area on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures at 850 MB will be around -20*C resulting in high temperatures in the single digits above zero. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night will drops in the single digits below zero area wide. Winds will be breezy during this period. Currently wind chills are forecast to drop into the teens below zero during this period but this will likely change over the coming days. Models have another clipper moving through the flow aloft and differ in its location resulting in differences in the placement of precipitation and snow across the area. The GFS and ECWMF track the surface wave south of the area and keep the bulk of the precipitation across Missouri while the Canadian brings it right across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Snow, mixed with a bit of rain at the front edge, is moving north, and will impact all TAF sites around 00z. In the top-down saturation under way, with CIGs going from MVFR to IFR the next hour or two. Easterly sfc winds will continue to increase and gust into the evening, then decrease a bit toward morning in southern areas, but by afternoon, strong north winds are expected in all areas. Wet snow will fall tonight through the morning hours Tuesday. As the bouts of heavier snow move in from the south mid to late evening, then another high snowfall rate(1-2" an hour) from 3 am through 10-11 am Tuesday at most sites producing LIFR conditions and quick snow accums on the runways. These LIFR conditions may linger through the day along and north of Interstate 80, while seeing a bit of improvement in the south. By mid afternoon, as winds increase from the north, blowing snow and falling snow will create another period of LIFR conditions that will last through Tuesday night. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ042-053- 054-065>068-078-089. IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for MOZ009-010. You just gotta WUB this stuff. It's the stuff of pure snow weenie DREAMS!

That monster storm is truckin' NE at speed. A line of storms down in the Louisiana region is truckin' NE at an incredible 83 mph as indicated by radar. There are going to be a few slight wind gusts with this, as well as one hell of a moisture transport. It is pulling prodigious amounts of moisture not only off of the Golfo de Mexico, but also off the Pacific, straight off the Parque Nacional Revillagigedo! It's mind-boggling just watching it get bigger and stronger kind of like a monster truck on serious steroids. It's coming at the Mid Atlantic FAST. Better look out! I cant post the radar but trust me, this thing means serious, SERIOUS BIZNASS!

ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE Pacific Front has been BLASTING Texas today with 55 mph gusts of Pac Puke. Pacific puke air is flooding in on strong WNW winds. We got very little rain from the pac front. I spent hours today chasing trashes and yard furniture. It was so damned bad it resembled a scene straight out of Amityville Horror or Poltergeist! That storm is exploding and it is heading for the Mid Atlantic with quintillions of metric tons of rain and more pac puke, then it will smash right into the SNE Region with even more pacific rains that will provoke massive amounts of snowmelt up there and very likely destructive runoff on ski resort grounds. This so-called pac winter is going to end up utterly destroying what little is left of the Eastern US ski resort industry, at least for 2024.