Jebman

When was the last time that happened? Maybe the frigid 1977 winter?

Just find the model output with the most snow and hug it.

That RRFS is reprehensible. If correct, absolutely beyond belief. Throw it out.

In Buda, Texas, Northerly breezes up to 37 mph have dropped temperatures 30 degrees down from our earlier highs in the mid 60s. At this rate we will be subfreezing by 7am. Rain will be freezing on every surface down here. It will then proceed to drop all day Saturday, into the teens Saturday night with persistent ZR. This storm may end as snow here Sunday. Next weekend another storm and trough will bring yet another round of rain, ZR, sleet and even snow to Austin Texas. Is this Texas or Northern Virginia?

Post your Obs in this here thread. Let's do this!

Look at national radar. You can see it beginning to come together.

Not only have the LES bands been blasting for over a week, but the LES areas will get snow from OUR storm, in effect padding their totals then get even MORE LES that will impact the snow belts into next week! That locality is starting to make Mammoth Mountain look bad. lol 292 FXUS61 KBUF 240139 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 839 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Storm Warning was issued for heavy snow across western NY Sunday through Monday, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario and the Eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday through Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake Erie. 2) Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday morning. 3) Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday night, with wrap around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least Monday. 4) Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy lake effect snow is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake Erie. Regional radar shows multiple bands of lake effect snow extending off the Great Lakes as an arctic airmass builds into the region this evening. Locally, lake effect snow will become weaker with the passage of a trough axis through tonight. A deep closed low over Quebec will move east through tonight. A wind shift has caused the lake bands to move south through this evening with heavy snow moving into the counties south of Lake Ontario. A sudden burst of snow will occur from Orleans to northern Cayuga counties before the band weakens and becomes more multi-band with a shorter fetch and diminishing winds. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties tonight. A northwesterly flow has setup across Lake erie with upslope snow showers and a weakening band of lake effect snow across the western Southern Tier. Snow showers will continue to weaken through the evening hours with an inch or so of additional accumulation. Gusty winds will support blowing and drifting snow, especially in open spaces. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday morning. Strong cold advection will force temperatures to drop into the single digits from west to east. Lows tonight will bottom out in the single digits above and below zero in most areas, and teens below zero for the North Country that will miss the benefit of the warming influence of the lakes. Highs will eventually recover to the single digits and lower teens by late Saturday afternoon. Wind chills will bottom out in the 15 to 20 below zero range on the lake plains, and 20 to 25 below across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The North Country will be coldest, with wind chills dropping to near 30 below at times. The worst wind chills will be later today through tonight. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday night, with wrap around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least Monday. The forecast for Western and North-Central NY remains on track for the major winter storm that will impact a truly impressive swath of the CONUS. Models and their respective ensembles remain in good agreement on the track and overall timing of the storm, with just a few subtle differences noted in the intensity of the secondary low that will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Being well to the north of the two sfc lows and the sandwiched trough extending down the spine of the Appalachians, we will remain clear of the warmer air intruding to our south and southeast, with very high confidence in precipitation type remaining all snow across the CWA. Behind the system, cold air will remain locked in place with reinforcing moisture promoting lake effect and upslope snows through Monday, and likely into Monday night as well. With confidence continuing to increase in the general forecast, the previous Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the entire region. Timing...Some potential lingering lake snows near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline Saturday night as the synoptic snow begins its initial push into the forecast area from the south. Still a bit of uncertainty in exact onset time, though by daybreak much of the Southern Tier should be seeing light to moderate snow, while areas east of Lake Ontario will likely remain (synoptic) snow-free until the early afternoon. Synoptic snows will then continue across the entire area for most, if not through all of Sunday night. In the wake of the system, winds will become northwesterly which should direct multiple bands of weaker lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario through Monday. This will continue the threat for lesser accumulating snow just about everywhere through the day. Amounts and Snowfall rates...Impressive northward moisture transport overlapping with the right-entrance quadrant of an emerging strong 190+kt ULJ and incipient broad scale height falls will enhance snowfall as the event progresses. The heaviest peak snowfall rates (around 1" per hour) are generally expected areawide Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, especially if and where mesoscale banding sets up. For this synoptic portion of the event, a widespread 7-12" is currently forecast, though locally higher amounts will be possible. For the fairly widespread lake effect/upslope portion Monday, an additional 2-4" may accumulate in most areas, possibly a bit more southeast of the lakes. KEY MESSAGE 4...Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy lake effect snow is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through midweek. The lake effect off Lake Ontario Monday night is expected to congeal into an area southeast of the lake behind a passing 850mb ridge as deep moisture increases and low level wind fields back. Despite the passage of this ridge, temps aloft will dip back to near -20C, more than cold enough for a solid lake response. The backing winds should direct this more focused lake effect area due east of the lake late Monday night into Tuesday. This lake effect is expected to persist through midweek, though a passing clipper will likely cause the band to make another southward push between Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the strength, track and timing of this clipper so uncertainty is high in how the lake effect will play out though there will be a potential for localized moderate to heavy additional snowfall east and/or southeast of Lake Ontario. For Lake Erie...The recent Arctic airmass over the Great Lakes has caused the amount of ice coverage on the lake to rapidly increase over the past week. With above-freezing temps nowhere to be found and calming winds ahead of the major storm, this trend is expected to continue. Will need to see how exactly the ice changes over next couple of days, but the thickening and expanding coverage should greatly mute the response from the lake throughout the week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The Lake Ontario lake band will sag southward across the southern shore of Lake Ontario and persist there tonight, becoming a multi band setup at times. This will occur as an upstream connection with Lake Huron sets up with the northwest flow. IFR or below is expected in the bands which will likely reach KROC through tonight. The lake effect snow off of Lake Erie continues to weaken this evening, but is bringing brief moderate snow showers to the western Southern Tier, including at KJHW. With the northwest flow over the region, lake clouds will persist through the night, with some lowering to MVFR at times outside of the lake bands. Farther away from the lake bands off of the lakes, breaks in the clouds will allow VFR conditions at times. Lake effect snow showers are possible along the southern shore of Lake Ontario Saturday morning, with localized MVFR/IFR at KROC. Mainly VFR conditions expected elsewhere Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday...VFR in the afternoon. Sunday...VFR deteriorating to widespread LIFR from south to north with heavy snow developing. Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing later in the day. Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast of Lake Ontario. && .MARINE... High end Small Craft Advisory conditions are present this evening on both Lake Erie & Ontario. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing for the wind to finally diminish. A light easterly flow will begin across the Lakes Sunday in response to a large area of low pressure south of the region. East-northeast flow will continue through Sunday night, before winds increase out of the northwest by late Monday. Small Craft conditions are likely on the western side of Lake Ontario Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Buffalo Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -11 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -11 (1976) 1(1963) January 25 -14 (1884) 5(1884) Rochester Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -14 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -10 (1963) 2(1963) January 25 -6 (1945) 7(1884) Watertown Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -31 (1976) -1(1976) January 24 -30 (2014) 0(2004) January 25 -18 (2007) 3(1992) && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001>006- 010>014-019>021-085. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ001-002-010-011. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ002>005. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>008. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ007-008. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ012>014-019>021-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043- 044. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/PP AVIATION...HSK/SW MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK CLIMATE...HSK

Yeah we need to project positive vibes on this thing.

I just completed my daily weather obs across the country. VERY COLD all over! Best of luck with this storm!!!! You guys are in for a treat! Good Times!

Winds here are easing around to the ENE. Temp 64/63. Very dark cloud cover all day, portending rain later tonight which will transition into ZR probably Saturday morning sometime. DMV should do well with the snow and sleet. You will all be thoroughly glaciated by Monday, and this Glacial Era will continue well into February. This is going to evolve into one heck of a winter there, and it is upon you. This pattern will not ease up. More snows are coming your way.

65/64 air feeding right into the developing storm, straight outta South Central TX.

I can confirm - rain is developing in south central Texas at this time. Winter storm is a go - I repeat, winter storm is a go - Positive developments underway!

You're in the Carroll Valley and even you see different ptypes? You should be mostly snow throughout.

shhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

Their meteorologists are probably exhausted, too. Or, someone may have hacked into the computers there and are about to change the forecast to five feet of snow for the entire sub.......

Hey guys, its only 30 more pages before we start up the January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 3. Let's do this! Let's will this one home! We got this!

Bncho is right. Besides, the storm is gonna get its act all together and wallop us all. Hey you haven't truly lived, until you go to bed early during the height of the revitalized storm and sleep right through the historic death band!

Well I hope you all get some well-deserved rest, and while you sleep the models self correct and you wake up Saturday to good news, even more snow than we were seeing on the models on Monday and Tuesday. The main NWS website map gets all lit up with red WSW's and orange Blizzard warnings as the meteorologists play catch up as true frigid Day After Tomorrow Winter finally arrives in Washington, DC!. Just about as colorful as a Christmas Tree. The NS is going to get its act together and the storm is gonna wallop the entire DMV Region with feet of pow, as the revitalized storm makes a good George BM weather story seem like a mild April day on The Mall.. Because Jeb said so.

Yep, and it just seems all the models have to offer the DMV, is more sleet and less snow these days.

No, my location is really only going to get really cold for 3 days but with only a tenth of an inch of ice. I feel really bad for the people who have to deal with 2 inches of solid ice. Hey if you fly out to TX - try out the brisket out here. Damn that stuff is so good! Besides, if I do lose power, I would just sleep in my car, I got lots of cozy blankets and thick beach towels and I'd just cover up and snooze right through all the ice, if we got that much.

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time.

Once it becomes glacified, try sledding it. In Jan or Feb 1994 I was still in Dale City. We got 3 inches of pure sleet. Once it became a glacier, sledding was pure genocide. I was foolish enough to try sledding down a pretty steep hill on one of those circular plastic sleds. Pure ice substrate. Well, it was fast as hell. I won't ever do that again. Banged up pretty good. Shot down the hill at breakneck velocity jumped a curb onto the ice packed street lucky no cars on it at the time, simply shot down that street. Lots of onlookers watched amazed I didnt kill myself. Glacierized sleetpack is extremely fast. Sled it with EXTREME caution. Don't get Jebbed.

Sleetpack on top of snow? That is not going anywhere any time soon.

Two fooking inches of ice. Damn. That's going to be very, very bad. Bad, bad Leroy Brown. Baddest accretion in the whole damn town.