Jebman

Look guys I know this is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off topic up in here but we could all use a good laugh. I laughed so hard I think I managed to injure something and I am bound for the ER at St Davids in Austin right now, but I don't want any of you to miss out on any of the fun. I really WORSHIP all of the meteorological misfortunes in the Sierran Cordillera. All while I stand here all entitled, in 70s weather in south central Texas, with at least 10 days of well above normal weather on tap, all while everyone else gets to fight for their very lives in horrific wintry weather conditions. I think high winds at flight level are funny. I think people trying to get somewhere at the last minute for Christmas and getting stuck like Donners' party, is the absolutely funniest thing in the whole world! That part about the grievances being aired was what REALLY made me guffaw. Most people in this house now think I am completely out of my ever lovin' mind and stand in serious need of psychiatric intervention. 780 FXUS65 KREV 190927 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 127 AM PST Fri Dec 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Widespread strong winds today and possibly again on Sunday. Likely impacts for both road and air travel. Localized fire weather concerns in the Eastern Sierra. * Showers including mountain snow showers this afternoon and evening. Heavier rains likely Saturday night through Sunday that could lead to localized flooding concerns. * Another storm or two could bring significant rain and snow Tuesday into Christmas Day, but confidence remains mixed. && .DISCUSSION... * Welp, it`s still looking rather busy weather-wise over the coming 7 days with a series of Pacific storms including atmospheric rivers. Anyone with holiday travel plans by road and by air should keep an eye on the forecast and adjust accordingly. * Wind: Today & Sunday are the windiest days in what will be a breezy period through most of next week. Rather impressive zonal jet moving though the Pac NW & N Calif coupled with increasing pre-frontal gradient will yield widespread strong winds today. Given W/SW flow orientation and 700mb speeds 50-60 knots, wave breaking and downslope enhancement is possible today along Hwy 395 from Susanville-Reno-Mammoth where we have wind advisories posted. Low humidity could create fire weather concerns, and it won`t be a pretty day for flying either. For Sunday another plume of high speed air aloft comes in with an moderate atmospheric river. RRFS showing 700mb winds over 70 knots. Wow. So if we end up being more shadowed on Sunday (more T than V from the AR IVT) we could have another round of rather strong, impactful winds regionwide. * Rain: While today will generally be dry, high-res models show showers moving in post-front this afternoon into the evening. Should be mostly rain except the Sierra peaks, however NBM and HREF are showing potential for snow p-type at passes if we see heavier precip rates. Rapid p-type changes can catch travelers off- guard. Saturday night through Sunday is still the main show for heavy rain with pronounced atmospheric river signal and high rain- snow lines (8000`+). QPF in the mountains is similar to guidance 24 hours ago but a little less in lee-side areas of W Nevada (more periods of shadowing/wind perhaps?). Highest risk of heavy rains and potential flooding remains the Tahoe Basin into NE Calif where models stall/pivot the main AR band for the longest time. If there were an area to underperform it would be the Eastern Sierra/Mono Co based on further north trajectories of the AR plume. * Snow: Precip never totally shuts off in the mountains but does lessen in intensity Monday into early Tuesday. Starting Monday night the snow lines drop enough were we could start seeing more regular impacts to travel over the passes. Simulations showing one or two additional notable and cooler storms moving in Tuesday evening through Christmas Day. Lots of variables here with models digging troughs off the coast which sometimes can result in a southward shift of the heaviest precip, wide boom/bust scenarios, and an increased airing of grievances next week. That all being said, QPF and snowfall in the NBM 50th percentiles has gone up quite a bit vs 24 hours ago for Wednesday-Thursday. Potentially good news for the snowpack and local "white Christmas" stats, but not so good news for those trying to get someplace at the last minute before Christmas. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Buckle up, it`s not exactly going to be a smooth day for flying with strong winds, mountain waves, rotors, and low level wind shear all on the table today into this evening. * Strong W/SW flow with RRFS 700mb winds to 60 knots forecast today and tonight, associated with an upper jet and approaching cold front. 80% chance of seeing peak gusts at least 35 knots at most airfields including RNO/CXP/MEV, TRK/TVL, MMH with 40-60% at NFL/SVE/HTH. High-end gusts over 50 knots cannot be ruled out in more wind prone areas along Hwy 395. NBM has 40-60% chances of 50 knot peak gusts at RNO and MMH for example. Another round of strong winds is looking likely on Sunday as well. * With that front today, we will have showers develop this afternoon and evening. Mainly in the mountains from SVE to TRK/TVL with potential for MVFR-IFR conditions in rain. Can`t rule out a rain/snow mix but low confidence. For RNO/CXP/MEV, light showers are possible (40% chance) but visibility/ceilings look to remain VFR. MMH misses out on this one, just wind for them. * Additional showers possible Saturday but mainly light intensity. Winds should be less robust as well. -Chris && .FIRE WEATHER... * There is concern over areas of critical wind and low humidity in the Eastern Sierra today, specifically fire weather zones CA274 and NV421. * Latest NBM and HREF guidance suggest 1-3 hours of critical conditions especially along Hwys 395 & 6 where W/SW winds could gust over 50 MPH this afternoon (see Wind Advisory). Humidity values already in the teens as of this writing and it`s been rather dry lately with well above normal ERC levels. * No Red Flag Warning at this time due to limited spatial extent and duration of critical conditions however we will highlight the risk in the FWF and our morning briefing email. -Chris && .HYDROLOGY... Repost of yesterdays hydro section. This will be updated with the daytime discussion. * Moderate to heavy rains will lead to significant rises on rivers and streams Sunday into Monday most notably from the Tahoe Basin north through Lassen County, but no mainstem river flooding is currently expected. * Minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and rockfall are possible during any prolonged periods of high intensity rainfall. Watch for additional rises near Christmas Eve and possible flooding concerns especially in drainages with large mountain drainages below about 6,000 feet, like the Susan River for example. * You can find river forecasts updated twice daily at: www.cnrfc.noaa.gov -Tim && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday NVZ002-003-005. Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday CAZ070>072. Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning CAZ072.

Latest modeling showing possibly 15 PLUS inches of pure water smashing down on the north Sierra. That would be catastrophic flooding and/or truly epic, Brobdingnagian amounts of snow.

Ravens WILL win out and they'll win the Division.

Atmospheric River events set to smash hard into the Sierra Cordillera next week about Wednesday. Weather in south central Texas is nice, cloudy drizzle with 62/60 conditions. Some of the modeling is showing ten inch water potential plus near Palisades. If some of that is snow.... Some of those clouds at Mammoth are moving so damn FAST! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

MASSIVE PATTERN CHANGE in the west including Texas and the Californian Sierran Cordillera means well above normal in Austin alongside increased storm chances in the Californian and Navadan Cordillera in the coming days. It would be nice to see a record Atmospheric River smash without mercy right into Mammoth Mountain, dumping meters upon meters of snow upon Mammoth. Palisades Tahoe has yet to open!!! They may not manage that until early 2026 lmao! This ski season may indeed turn out to be the latest seasonal opening ever experienced in Palisades since the resort opened up 75 years ago! We shall see. Meanwhile in the East, continued serious Arctic conditions persist for the Mid Atlantic with a brief mildup and beneficial rains Thursday BUT more cold air and more snow chances continue.

It's not a possibility. It's in progress! It's upon the Mid Atlantic. Make no mistake about it - Everyone in that sub is going to enjoy an incredible winter!

Congrats everyone, on the snow, on deep winter, on the vodka cold, and on one hell of a kick ass start to winter. Enjoy! We have only just begun!!!!!!!

They'll freeze their nuts off, and they are gonna WIN!!!

Enjoy it to the FULL. This is only the Beginning of what will be a memorable winter in the Mid Atlantic!

You are well in the snow band. You are good.

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HoCo/MoCo deathband incoming.

Congrats to all who are getting snow! Let's hope this goes BOOM!

Where do I sign up for this? South gets a foot but Dale City gets 7 and the last time I looked that's a White Christmas! I hope with all that is in me, that Penhook gets annihilated with 19. Bob Chill can drive that red tractor with a blade and pile all that snow 35 feet high! Penhook is the new North Central Maryland, or even the new Alleghenies.

They know the deathband's on the way.

You live in the Mid Atlantic your Jonesing for snow. Head to the Alleghenies and Snowshoe! This place has been getting shellacked for DAYS! https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

LMAO. Hawaiian weather in dca for Xmas. Late dad born in Hawaii, we always said mele kalikimaka first thing Xmas morning after we got up. I'll never forget that...

I love the Euro. No matter what. But, Mid Atlantic is gonna get NAM'MED and shellacked.

Kyle/Buda TX is experiencing runaway construction. We are building far faster than Dubai in the UAE. By 2035 this place will be far worse than Dale City ever was. Taxes will be sky high. Traffic will be impenetrable and it will take hours and hours to get thru all the traffic lights just on 1626. Crime is on the geometric rise down here. People are becoming extremely weird at night. I see strange stuff all the time out at night delivering. I am scared to death because my physical health is in an aerodynamic scream. I won't have to worry about 2035. Groundwater will run out and water will be far more expensive than gas. There is no hope at all. Poor people like me can see the writing on the wall. It's obvious. The rich are getting out while they can. This entire region all around Austin is turning into a midden. They won't stop til every tree is gone and we are one big unhappy city like Coruscant in Star Wars. That's where we are heading. No way out. Been nice knowin' y'all. It was a nice ride. The end won't be. Jebman checkin' on out. Very happy for ya Bob Chill. You did everything right, made all the correct decisions. I didn't. Wish I could change it but its too late for me. Writing's on the wall, now. I wore myself out walkin around and chasing snow and arctic weather and other ridiculous stuff. Now I am all played out and all washed up. I should never came back. Clubber Lang in Rocky III was an extremely wise man in what he said to Rocky. Too bad I never learned from it in time. Anyhow, Mid Atlantic is in an epic season. You guys don't know it yet. West resorts are going under, because that Ridge will stay in place til August 2026. You guys are gonna FREEZE. It's gonnabe 1977 vodka cold but with a decent side of 2013-2014. Snow is gonna pile up all over Virginia, not just in Richmond. You all are gonna start out the New Year with brokebacks because of digging snow and that will only be a point to what remains: One frigid Siberian winter that will just never end, snow after snow after snow after snow and people fighting for parking spots and fighting for scraps left at the stores which will be utterly out of food because so many storms and not enough time to resupply. This winter, the Winter of 2025-2026, is what they never told you about. Now it is upon you. It's going to stay super cold and it will be weather system after weather system after weather system. It's gonnabe one of George BM's fevered snow blizzard dreams come true but it will be all too real. You'll all find out soon enough. This has been a Jebman Exclusive. Carry on.

That puppy has got a LOT of snow and it has got its eyes right on the Mid Atlantic! Wow this may well be another 2013-2014 for you all!!! I've been saying it. I've been saying it. You are getting storm after storm after storm and the semipermanent ridge out west will keep shellacking you with arctic front after arctic front after arctic front!

There ain't gonnabe NO torchmas. Its gonnabe a frigidmas and a very snowmas and all your backs will be soremas from too much diggingmas.

Snowin Out There, no need to worry. You got this BIG-TIME! Your posts about developing upper air dynamics are so well done you need RED TAGGED already! NWS mets better start takin notes from you!

Snowshoe is getting totally demolished by torrential snow! The Alleghenies are experiencing shellacking snow conditions right now! https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

Snowshoe is getting smashed by snow and they are REALLY making a ton of it as well! https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam