Jebman

Hey GBM September's right around the corner - Its high time for a massive hurricane yarn on Sep 1.

starting to get reeeeaaaalllly bored............. 300 FXAK69 PAFG 262214 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 214 PM AKDT Tue Aug 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will continue to keep the western half of Alaska cool and wet through the end of the week. Localized flooding throughout the Brooks Range will remain a concern for the next few days as streams and rivers continue to rise as a result of recent heavy rainfall. Meanwhile colder Arctic air will move onto the North Slope bringing the first signs of winter precipitation to parts of the Brooks Range and the Arctic Slope through Thursday. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Heavy rainfall will continue for the Dalton Highway summits and central Brooks Range through tonight with smaller rivers and streams potentially reaching flood stage. - Risk of flooding along the Dalton Highway will continue between mile markers 140 and 240 through early Wednesday. Additional rain accumulations through Wednesday are forecasted to be between 1" and 3". - Wind advisories are in effect for southerly winds gusting up to 60 mph through Windy Pass, 50 to 55 mph through Isabel Pass, and around 50 mph in Delta Junction. The most likely time frame is between this afternoon and Tuesday night. - Warmer temperatures and breaks in the cloud cover are possible Wednesday for Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana. West Coast and Western Interior... - Precipitation will continue for the Western Interior through Wednesday, with additional rainfall ranging between 0.5" and 1.75". The heaviest amounts will be from Huslia, to McGrath, to Holy Cross. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Snow has begun to mix in with the rain. Minor accumulation are possible tonight and Wednesday at the higher elevations along the Brooks Range from Point Lay to Anaktuvuk Pass. - A glaze up to 0.1" of ice is possible along Anaktuvuk Pass and the north side of the Brooks Range along the Dalton Hwy Corridor. This is expected to continue through Thursday morning. - Chances for wintry precipitation will continue across the Brooks Range through the end of the week. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... The overall weather pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours with a persistent upper trough extending down through the Bering Sea with a dominant ridge over western Canada and SE Alaska. This has kept the steering flow from the south and southeast across central and western sections of the state allowing for additional northward transport of moisture and additional disturbances to help keep the soggy weather going. We will watch a surface low track north from the YK Delta up to near the Northwest Arctic coastline tonight and tomorrow. This should help focus most of the rainfall over the west coast and portions of the western interior with the central and eastern interior taking a break from most of the rainfall for at least Wednesday. The exception will be across the Central Brooks Range and Arctic slope where leftover precipitation will encounter a brief Arctic intrusion tonight and Wednesday resulting in a wintry mix of precipitation. Shortwave energy will begin to eject northeast out of the Bering Thursday and Friday bringing another period of rain to central and northern Alaska (however precipitation with this feature should be less intense than what has occurred the past several days). Saturday and Sunday should see a respite from recent storms as a deepening low shapes up over the Bering (more on this is included in the Extended Discussion below). && .FIRE WEATHER... Persistent light to moderate rain the past few days continues to keep fire weather concerns at a minimum across the region. Only portions of Fortymile county and the upper Tanana Valley have managed to escape the steady precipitation. However even in these locations min RH values managed to stay around 40 percent the past few days. Rainfall for the central and eastern interior will taper off a bit Wednesday but should return with another passing disturbance later in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... A river flood warning continues in effect for Slate Creek near Coldfoot, Alaska. The creek crested at 20.78 feet at 5:00 AM Tuesday and is expected to stay above flood stage tonight through Wednesday morning. In addition another flood warning was issued for the Dalton Highway between mile markers 140 and 240. AKDOT 511 and public reports indicated water over the highway while nearby gauges continue to show rapid rises on nearby streams and creeks. This is all due to between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in the area the past 24 hours. Additional rain is also expected in the area tonight and early Wednesday. Meanwhile the river flood watch for the tributaries of the Koyukuk and Kobuk Rivers has been extended into Thursday afternoon as additional rain continues across the south slopes of the Brooks Range and the Upper Kobuk Valley. Rises along the main stem rivers is also expected overnight tonight and into Thursday morning. Of immediate concern will be the Koyukuk at Allakaket which will likely be cresting Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some minor flooding or low areas around Allakaket will be possible. .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... The focus turns back towards the Bering to begin the extended period. By early Saturday models are highlighting a 980mb surface low entering the southern Bering Sea with high pressure centered over the Gulf of Alaska. As the low tracks northwards through the Bering during the day, the gradient will strengthen allowing for another round of strong southerly winds along the west coast. This will be accompanied by the onset of additional precipitation over the YK Delta Saturday evening which will spread northwards over the Seward Peninsula and the western interior by Saturday night and Sunday. Models are still having difficulty with resolving the eventual fate of this low as far as track and strength are concerned. While this has to potential to result in some coastal flooding, confidence remains low with that regard for now. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... A storm entering the southern Bering Sea will bring stronger south winds to the YK Delta Coast beginning Saturday. This system will be monitored for further impacts to the west coast of Alaska over the next few days.

I remember that one all too well. I was helping Debbie a neighbor on Aug 23 2011. At first i thought it was a concrete truck rumbling by but then I realized we were getting an EARTHQUAKE! Everyone ran out of their houses. I also remember Aug 23 real good because 7 years later it was the very day I left Dale City for good. I can't believe I have been down here in HOT Texas for 7 years already!

Zero chance of tropical rain for Texas this season. Seems about right. Desertification's right on track! Time to pretend I'm on the Giza Plateau with the ardor of an Indiana Jones, looking for 13th Dynasty artifacts.

Frigid cold Texas sweet tea and lemonade, amid visions of a ice locked entire eastern section of America this winter, alongside frigid vodka cold northerly winds and deep drifting snow.

When is it going to be the Mid Atlantic's turn? In the 2025-2026 Winter.

Check out 1:05 on the vid.

You'll need the Panic Room from time to time as we experience Pattern Reloading and snow weenies panic, but most of the time its gonnabe forlorn. Because DCA and the entire greater metro region will get demolished by Brobdingnagian amounts of snow. And vodka cold.

We are not even gonna need this place this winter, not the way you guys are gonna get shellacked.

BANK ON IT. It will happen. Get the shovels ready. You'll all be GLUED to models for months. Your BACKS will hurt BAD. You are about to shovel about 50 years' worth of snow. Next winter will be even snowier. YOU ARE GONNABE SO DAMNED TIRED OF SNOW BY LATE JAN 2026, it will be ridiculous! You guys have had this coming for a long while. These, will be the Days To Remember. Joel says they will not last forever, but I got news for you! It WILL last "forever" for many. BIG ALTERATIONS COMING!

1) Massive implications for worldwide cooling trends due to Grand Solar Minimums. Possible LIA by 2030. 2) I have permanent left knee problems from helping my mom here in Texas with the donkeys. I am scared to death of ice. If I fall, I stay down. 3) Mid Atlantic in Winter 25-26 will be severely impacted. By 2030 we will be seeing massive global cooling transmigrations. Again, I will be dead. Application: Be very damn careful what you wish for. This, is what I get for obsessing over winter for 50 years. Now I am old and wishing I could move to the Amazon where I will be safe from any temperature below 80 degrees. NOW, THAT'S A JEBMAN POST!

Hope you get it along with lots beneficial rain while staying real safe.

It's gonnabe a cold, very snowy winter 2025-26 in the Mid Atlantic. Get those shovels ready. Stock up on whatever you use to stay awake. Because you will be tracking weather models into late March over snow after snow after snow after snow after snow after snow after snow after snow after snow. By late January 2026, many of you will be sick and tired of digging the snow from your driveways. You will be fed up with waking up after spending 14 hours clearing your walk and driveway entrances from the latest blockbuster blizzard that dumped 30 inches of snow, to a huge, Brobdingnagian snow berm that the damned plow guy left you, right across your driveway, about eight feet high and frozen in place by single digit low temperatures and northerly winds gusting to 55 mph, to say nothing of drifting. You'll break out the ice pick and various tools, trying to chip through that snow and ice berm, falling right on your azz, right in front of your neighbors who will be cracking up so damned hard that they will be sliding on the ice like lemmings. Someone will inevitably capture your hilarious, Fail Tube flailing pratfall right on your tailbone on their trusty high end phone and post it straight to YouTube, where it will rack up over ten million views in 24 hours, assuring the channel owner a steady flow of fresh cash while everyone in your local neighborhood will be pointing straight at you and laughing uproariously while brandishing their phones and tablets.

These folks waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy down south in the Andes are just getting demolished. You can actually see that snow on the ground, getting blown around, in REAL TIME!!!!! Take a really good look at this vid. Because you are seeing a representation of what DCA is gonna look like come mid Dec 2025 on into early April 2026. Believe it. When you got the Jebman talkin SNOW in early August, what you got here is a sign of an imminently very BAD winter here in the Mid Atlantic only about 18 weeks from now.

Another massive weather system in TX, another wild swing...........and yet another MISS! Lucy is working overtime in Buda. The drought rages on. That was particularly heartbreaking. You could see the dark rain shaft but once again the life giving ship passes in the night.

Cerro Castor ski resort is still getting heavy snow and it is blowing around. It's deep winter down in deep southern South America and the skiers there are happy. It's gonnabe the scene in the Mid Atlantic come December 2025 on into the first three months of 2026. Remember you heard it first from The Jebman!

Nice cool relaxing day in Buda this afternoon, it was right nice out, about 101 degrees along with a 65 dewpoint. Not bad at all. I have been running around with the windows down in the car all summer because this has been quite the "cool" wet at times high sun season. Friday night/Saturday, Gulf of Mexico feature drifts west over south central Texas, colliding with a front from the northwest. Might get some storms. Meanwhile in other news, Cerro Castor Ski Resort in South America is getting demolished right now. Probably dozens of fresh centimeters of snow. It's blowing around, too!

Take a look at this YouTube vid from that South American ski resort. These guys are STILL getting demolished at 5am Texas time!

@AgBob lol

Check this out in Argentina! I've been watching the snow fall at night over there. https://www.skiresort.info/ski-resort/cerro-castor/webcams/wcy1408/

Wow man I wish I could spend a week with you putting me to work learning everything you know. Forget meteorology. This stuff is far better!

Extreme heat stays out west. We Texans will take the high heat in order to help out all our friends back East. We are sending you DCers many a cool, dry front laden with dry continental air!! We like it hot. We'll gladly take ALL the oppressive dewpoints! I am pretty used to 77 dewpoints by now!

Congrats Dale City! You are leading the Nation in rain for the year so far!!!!!!! You passed 33 inches! I am jealous as all hell!!! All I have so far this year, is 26.3 measly inches of rain. I got 6.5 inches in a week but I wanted that 12 inch lolli SO DAMN BAD, I could taste it!

I am so happy for you all, getting decent storm action. Hope you get more and stay safe!

My left knee is getting better. Soon I will have to get on my knees and pull weeds for months and horrific Texas chiggers will eat me alive. I will have hundreds of bites all over. This will not be fun. I will wish I had been at Kerrville in Camp Mystic the night of July 3 asleep. I love that Guadalupe River so much, it hurts. Even more than I miss my friend A.B. I am DYING to undertake an truly EPIC walk up the entire Guadalupe just to get a damn good look at all the damage!!!!