Dark Star

Is that what the kids are calling it these days?

Could happen but it seems to be threading a needle with diverting warm air farther into the arctic?

As good climatic forecast as any can be. With the NYC metro area outpacing the global warming average temperatue, I think it is possible snow becomes more an anomaly around here, despite being at the "early stage"?

Physics Course 102a Much like the “Fire Triangle”, Snow, at least in the NYC metro area, requires three things; Cold Air, moisture, and luck. I consider snow a miracle in these parts. While we have seen certain anomalous episodes (especially recently) where a storm can seemingly “manufacture” cold air, you still need a cold air source nearby. Pacific air to our north doesn’t quite cut it.

Amen.

Hence, this is why Canada NEEDS to have arctic air.

Sadly, this is not true arctic air, as the Pacific jet is pumping warm air all the way into Canada.

>95% you won't get snow with Pacific air...

Except you don't want Pacific air to our north either...

Usually the "back end" of storms don't produce much, if anything. This one is an exception.

I guess it depends on exactly where the systems merge. At first glance, it looks over NYC, but, it may be further east, depending on the speed? Possible Dry Slotting around 4 AM?

I thought you need a freeze to go into a thaw. Normal -0.5 degrees to +0.5 degrees is not a freeze to come out of to go into a thaw?

Another thaw?

Actually I seem to recall numerous 60 degree days followed by snow. However, in those cases, there was cold air behind the warm air to pull down for saccumulating snow to occur. Gotta love the "sun angle" though...

The NYC metro area has become too litigious. Seems (almost) nowhere allows skiing, skating, sledding...

Yes, we am...

I would tend to agree that the Pacific Jet IS the cause of our warmer weather here in the Northeast. As long as that is persistent, it will result in warmth in our area, and probably lack of cold air into Canada. I guess we could argue the ancient Chicken and Egg controversy? We will continue to see "colder signals" constantly postponed, until it is March, with perhaps an occasional ebb where some cold air will reach the NYC area.

Agreed. Same here in Union County NJ. Most of NJ "spared" as a rational forecaster might have expected. Winds near and around the ocean is almost always another story. Windspeeds, at least for a storm, are almost always "over blown" for NYC and western suburbs. Mixing usually inhibited by friction. Over the immediate coastal areas, the winds could be realized. Just another rain event. Heavy lines were east of most of NJ.

We're wasting "sun angle"

Almost never, but the models love to tease us...

Looking like NJ misses the most intense lines?

Looking like NJ dodges the heaviest lines...

Always a possibility, but if I had a dollar for everytime models showed snow on the backside of a system, well, I would have money...

I was horrible at math and had to take remedial math in college, but made it through Calc 4. I think the multiple blackboard equations were not necessary. If you wanted to advance the science, then yes, or if you wanted to program for the models. My head spun for sure, but luckily, many of my professors could notice that glazed look and call on me to bring me back in. I didn't stay in the field long because I didn't want to work nights for minimal pay or have to work for free for over a year as an intern. One of my professors suggested to the class to minor in meteorology, as the field was pretty small and not well paying for the effort in education. He did not last too long after that, but was a heckuva synoptic meteorologist!