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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    One would think 5-10 "general" forecasts (warmer, colder, drier, wetter) should be achievable? Is it that the models just weren't designed to deal with the persisten Pacific jet?
  2. Dark Star
    I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm. What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather. I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about. However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm. Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.
  3. Dark Star
    Before Superstorm Sandy, I always remember somebody turning the heat switch off right after Labor Day...
  4. Dark Star
    The average Atlantic hurricane season spawns 5.9 canes, this year we got 7 to date. The average major hurricanes is 3, and we have received 3 to date. So even though the water has been warmer, it looks like we are going to wind up slightly above average? Unless that is, that the warmer water extends the season?
  5. Dark Star
    But can get some nice weather...
  6. Dark Star
    Faint Aurora Borealis in Sussex County NJ last night? Is this normal, or was there some recent solar activity?
  7. Dark Star
    Hurrican season ending soon. NOAA increased their original forecast for the number of storms based on the water temperature. I wonder what the latest tally is vs. the number of storms predicted?
  8. Dark Star
    Depends what the tea leaves read...
  9. Dark Star
    I no longer bother.
  10. Dark Star
    Is it possible they already had a killing frost? Then again, it seems warmer the farther north you go sometimes, lately?
  11. Dark Star
    Baba Bouy?
  12. Dark Star
    My memory is waning, but I thought the slowing down of the AMOC was the reason why our region was experiencing a 4-5 degree increase in temperatures vs. the 1.2 degree increase globally over the past 100 years or so?
  13. Dark Star
    A member here previousl posted information concerning the Gulf Stream/Labrador circulation. It seems it is slowing down, which is causing the northeast US air temperatures to be increasing faster than the rest of the globe. If that trend continues, things look bleak for future winters?
  14. Dark Star
    Central Union County NJ - October 29, 2011
  15. Dark Star
    What is causing all these vertical cumulus today? Looked like The Day of Judgement driving down Rt. 24... I guess the NWS discussion somewhat answers my question? Forecast mostly on track this afternoon. Moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion between 7-10kft will continue to lead to mostly cloudy conditions for much of the day. Sea breeze convergence has developed some bands of cumulus of clouds along it and cannot completely rule out an isolated shower.
  16. Dark Star
    Luckily we can't even forecast 14 days out...
  17. Dark Star
    Persistence? Not exactly the most accurate of forecasting methods, but hard to argue based on trending, recent (and stubborn) history?
  18. Dark Star
    You can see how far off the 348 hour "forecast" was. I guess 2 weeks is asking a bit much. Of course 11 day prog hasn't confirmed yet, either. Doubtful if we ever get to that type of accuracy. Anybody guessing if the model needs more information, less information, or the right information?
  19. Dark Star
    I'm sure they stagger precipitation events based on climatological statistics. In winter for the greater NYC area, they can say, "Rain or Snow along th coast, and snow likely inland and in the higher terrain.
  20. Dark Star
    Do I see a 540 line on the map?
  21. Dark Star
    Looks like some of the heavier stuff is NORTH of I-84. So much for suppression.
  22. Dark Star
    It seems the moderate to long range forecasts have been somewhat elusive?
  23. Dark Star
    However, many times the snow drought was a result of a dome of frigid air.
  24. Dark Star
    Keeping optimistic that central Union County in NJ will escape heaviest of the rains. Appears right now that we will get intermittent showers of varying intensity this afternoon, until the approaching front finally makes it's way through. By then, hopefully, the main rain with that line weakens a bit. However, farther north, Phillipe will feed some extra moisture into the whole mess?
  25. Dark Star
    Hopefully the offshore tropical system will have a lot less influence than previously thought?
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