MANDA

My vote is leave everything in this thread. Easier, IMO.

Interested to see what peak winds are out there. Pretty much the best place to get the best gusting. Keep us posted.

Next best thing if you don't have premium. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-48

Just copy / paste the link: https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Like look of that western band from the NY/NJ border right down to near Cape May.

Going to be close out here in west central Morris County. Glad I'm not any further west. Wish that surface low was more inside the BM but we take what we can get. Coastal and more eastern locations are in good shape.

Keep em coming!

Almost to my location. Another hour or so.

So sorry. I can't imagine.

No. It started to snow....it continued and the rest is history. Much colder airmass was in place. Didn't have to wait for the storm to intensify to get rain to switch to snow.

The leading edge of the main precip shield is along a TTN to Staten Island line (1:15) and making steady progress northward. Expect to see moderate snowfall here within the next 90 minutes.

Some on here need it in an IV Drip.

Same here (12:40) and temperature has fallen 2 degrees over the last hour. Currently 31.8.

Speaking as a member of the N & W crowd I'm with you. There were some concerning signals popping up last evening. One reason I did not go higher than 12-18". Even thought about leaving my 10-15" forecast alone. Not a good thing when you have to rely on banding and ratios to get you to the finish line. It can get you there but you don't want to have to depend on it. I just want to get 12" here to verify my forecast. Personally I think the 18" high end is fading for this area and for near certain N & W of here. Just gotta watch radar and mesos from here on in. One of my concerns has always been the RGEM was never on board for big totals out this way. The RGEM is not a trash model.

Going with 12-18” here.

I think he is just trying to make the point that there is a large difference between the max NAM/SREF amounts and most everything else. The RGEM is not a trash model. Give it a chance unfold and see where this is going. Me personally I don’t think we see 24”+ amounts with this but I also believe RGEM amounts are on the low side.

Updated my final forecast for out this way at 10:00 last night to 12-18”. We’ll see how this all turns out soon enough. The 12” seems like a reasonable floor and anything over 18” would have to come from intense banding which is hard to nail down in advance. We’ll see how it plays out. Currently light snow and 31 degrees. Western edge was always going to be difficult and the NAM insane amounts were not be believed verbatim. Good luck to all!!!!

Just can never remember so much flip flopping. It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous.

Could be I guess. These days who knows what the hell is real or AI.

Will see what I can send you once we’re done with this storm and I get back on a regular sleep schedule.

Good grief bro. Get yourself a better base map. Looks like a 70’s neon sigh. I fully expected it to pulse in and out. You clearly put work into it but you need a better base map.

That western cutoff is painful to look at. Amounts fall off quickly once you cross into EPA.

That and models POSSIBLY sniffing out some banding features.

Not endorsing the amounts by any means. Interesting though that the NAM, SREF and HRRR have been targeting these two areas for several consecutive runs.

Yes. See map Don posted for this upcoming storm only.