HKY_WX
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Everything posted by HKY_WX
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RAP (old school model I used to use) has a couple ZR maxs. One is near Youngsville and Northern Wake county with .9 (which is cray)
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GFS up to .62 accrual for RDU now. RGEM is at roughly 1 inch. NAM up to .2. cut those #'s in half and blend them and you still get warning criteria ice.
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RDPS is trending the best ZR accrual towards the Triangle as the trends south continue. Looks like more sleet for the VA border counties if this is to be believed. I'll post a map tomorrow for those interested. (I usually only post maps for significant/major systems) fyi.
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NAM has the SLP all the way down into the n-central GOM at hour 36
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It was like 2005. Was prob the last good ZR storm i've seen. I was home for winter break from UNCG. I'm sure I said something smartazz to get him to say that.
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He said that to me. That pompous azz lol. My brother still laughs at me about it.
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GFS trend below for ZR. Main thing I would note is this is not just CAD related. Notice the ZR line over the Miss Valley is trending SE as well, meaning the HP is pressing further south. The trend today is been to push this HP and corresponding cold front through a bit deeper. Setting up a more suppressed solution. From Apps runner, to Miller B to now a hybrid Miller A/B.
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Trends...
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From a climo perspective, the 12z EURO SLP track is much more of a Snow to Sleet/Ice track (especially for interior sections of NC/VA). Certainly not a pure ZR track ending in rain that will push 10C+ 850 temps into interior NC... This will be interesting to following in the mods today/tomorrow. This system will likely feature much more sleet than we're seeing currently (at least for the interior/NW NC/S VA sections).
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I do like the Hillsborough area a lot. The wife will have her say lol
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I live near the RDU airport, so I'm on the edge. I'm planning on relocating North towards creedmoor or NW of wake forest sometime this summer. If the plague leaves.
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In general 850 temps that high would prevent much accrual. For this reason, I think they will break one way or the other. My guess is they will be closer to 4-6C since the trend is towards a colder solution/suppressed SLP.
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True, i'm thinking those #'s will come down though if we have the SLP in the positions the other models have it. Would make no sense to have a warm nose that strong.
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Yes if it continues
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It's a subtle trend, but the polar lobe over SE Canada continues to trends south/stronger. This will continue to strengthen the pinch of the confluent flow aloft over the northeast and induce higher pressure/HP at the surface. This produces a more transient pattern for our STJ s/w coming eastward.
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Good points. The main reason I think is b/c the pattern is trending more progressive over the eastern CONUS/Canada. This has eliminated the Apps runner scenario which would have overwhelmed the wedge with warm air aloft/down. Now we're trending towards a True Miller A/B hybrid. This generally brings more sleet into play over VA/northern NC from my experience.
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Interesting to look at this trend gif and see the clearing over central/southern VA. Over time, it looks the NAM is trending towards a deeper cold dome (sleet) for those areas. This would generally shift the ZR line south as well. Time will tell.
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Same trend on the euro...
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NAM has a solid trend towards a stronger wedge (especially note the escarpment/foothills of NC/SC/NE GA). However, not too sure I'd pay much attention to the NAM precip fields this far out.
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There's still time on the southern periphery for some trends (in either direction). Not talking about whole-scale changes. The setup is the setup. This has been apparent for the past week. Once this HP get's far enough east, we will get in on the Ice eventually ("we" being the southern VA/western/central NC).
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Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From an IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice. Ground zero looks like MTV/DAN area.
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Whoever's on the southern extent of the wedge (Right now looks like northern NC/Southern VA), most likely will get a crippling icestorm (.75+ ZR accrual). I would need to pull the bufkit soundings, but that same area from Roxboro to MTV to GSO looks bad. I'd be buying batteries/etc right now if I were you.
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Looks like .3 to .5 is likely in that triangle from MTV to GSO to Roxboro. Will be lights out for a lot of peeps tonight. You could see this coming. Being an ice storm nerd, it's ashame we couldnt a more widespread event for NC. I know many will disagree lol
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Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east. So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time.
