dmcginvt

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Astronomy requires complex predictions, the difference is that theories of gravitation allow those predictions to be quite accurate. If we had equations that governed atmospheric behavior on all time scales, then we could do what astronomers can do (and I'm aware that there are areas of astronomy that are still undergoing debate and testing of competing theories). We really know next to nothing about atmospheric variation other than the statistics of it. For example, we can make a fairly accurate prediction that there might be 20 to 30 hot days in a summer but trying to predict which 20 or 30 they would be is essentially a random exercise at 90 days. So that tells me we don't know what specifically causes the variations we know are coming. And of course in some particular seasons we are surprised by the outcome even in general terms.

I happen to think some of the answers to these questions are hidden in tidal forces that we have yet to understand to the same precision as ocean tide forecasting. Other answers are buried in solar variability and solar system magnetic field behavior. And if we ever cracked the code then it would lead to quasi-accurate long-range forecasting but the details of systems would remain hazy and these discussions would still occur even though people might know well in advance that a system like this one was coming. Then you get into things like the exact tracks of tornadoes, exact landfall spots of hurricanes, etc. We might get 90% of the way to the goal but would still be tracking such things in real time. 

Or maybe intelligent aliens will arrive and tell us exactly what's up, as they fatten us up for lunch tomorrow.

We should hang out, but I really didnt mean to hijack this thread and there's some kind of storm coming apparently.  I may get a few inches I may get 10.  But I want to reiterate, I want everyone in sne to get pounded.  They deserve it!!

sorry didnt mean to distract everyone from snow.  I hope you all get it!!!  You deserve it!!!   I hope it falls in buckets for everyone in CT and Mass.  Everyone else can go f themselves.  Ok RI, nh and ME can have some.

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

then there would be a much reduced thread and probably no weather forum, is there an astronomy forum where people debate the time of sunrise? No. Something that well predicted requires no discussion, or even banter. 

This may never become an exact science. It's like human behavior maybe, you can make some skilled general predictions, but not a totally reliable outlook for somebody's future conduct. 

Also, soon after perfect prediction would come weather control. Do we really want that? 

Sorry that's a bad anology, astronomy changes far less than a column of air surrounding the earth.  It's like that office episode where dwight has an update on a 1000 yr old martial art.  

7 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

It’s not a perfect science, but 7 day forecasts are as accurate now as 3 day forecasts were a few decades ago

ha that might be true as you stated it but that isnt saying much, see this winter.  which is why I look at any climate model skeptically.  I dont deny climate change, but I deny their models.  We cant say whats going to happen next week, let alone months or years from now

2 minutes ago, RikC said:

and Y2Q (google it) is just a few years away

I believe it.  

the concept of chaos theory tells us that we wil never be able to accurately model the weather.  Even with a sensor measuring everyting related to the weather 1m up, left and right, in a grid all around the world enough could go on within that framework to change everything. See Edward lorenz, sensitive dependence on initial conditons.   Fluid dynamics.  diffeq.  Theres not enough computing power to do it.  Maybe quantum computers that can have bits both 1 and 0 can solve this.  

2 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

UKmet up there in second place ahead of the GFS but it doesn’t usually get treated that way. 

exactly

5 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

thanks man!!  that's amazing, can I see that in 3 days and 2 etc

 

 

 

 

 

also it's shocking how wrong everyone here is, they should include americanwx in that graph

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/

thanks man!!  that's amazing, can I see that in 3 days and 2 etc

I'm a classic wishcaster.  Im no george001.  But I am terrible.  I think we are getting more snow then let's on.  There's been a north push after a huge south push to almost nothing.  I'm guessing 4-6 is realistic.  With some bonus upslope after for the northern greens to a foot for them

THe irony? The canadian models are good for me up here in VT and have never changed.  But you guys slam them left and right.  NAM and GFS have improved here as well, after going so far as saying Im getting ZERO.  Who really knows they are just models that cant deal with phasing.  And they've all done poorly this winter.  But if there's a model that gets most dissed it's the canadian both long range and hi res.  Sure the icon and ukmet probably top that chart, but it's gfs/euro/gefs/eps/ nam that everyone follows.  Until the gem or reggie fits your narrative.  then they are ok.  I personally feel like they arent ok and are usually wrong.  And thus agree with the masses.  But until someone does independant verification on all of them how we do we really know

I dont understand you people that constantly say the gem and reggie suck and then look to them when it favors you?  What gives?  Also Is there a verification site that compares??

looks like blowing ass on gondolier and hayride always good times.  Miss my old 210 gs skis used to blow ass with the best of them on those trails. BTW I knew Jake, his son Timmy was in the same grade as mine and played hockey with him.  What a bonus it was during the winter carnival hockey tourney that I was running when they gave us 5 snow boards to raffle off.  Never got the invite to the annual party though, i would have loved the 50th with Trey.  

On 3/6/2023 at 8:50 PM, powderfreak said:

Nice day despite some gusty winds.  Bluebird, chalky packed powder, some wind scour and some drifted dense between bumps in spots.

But generally, just nice chalky packed powder.

headwall of national looks like nothing these days. Where's the ice!!

despite what radar shows it really slowed down now but we had a good smack totalling 9 inches from midnight till 10.  

Im at 9 so far.  Not really doing much right now despite what radar shows.  

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew BOX was full of shit going 8-12" here...H7 got going too far north...AIT. Be lucky to hit the low end of my 4-8" range. 

I think you have a few hours of heavy snow coming to get you to 6, i dont think 8 is a stretch.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Couple hours of freezing rain has glazed up the pack and trees. 31 

For the Mainers

Transition to low in NJ happening both 989

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Ripping on the home cam

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Your cams confirm!!

44 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

26.1/25.6  Snow started at midnight.  1/4 in first hour.  3.75 since.  4 inches at 4:45am.  Wiped board

.75 since 5 Total.  It's lightened up significantly.  26.4/25.9

7 minutes ago, klw said:

NWS Burlington

 

@NWSBurlington

·

50m

 

[3/4 345 AM] We received reports of #thundersnow in Milton, VT and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 #satellite confirmed it! #vtwx

It follows with the front and frontogenesis 

right over milton

1 minute ago, dmcginvt said:

Looks like that section of Maine due east of me  is getting killed