dmcginvt

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

George, I’m hurt by this!

And I have bad news, if I’m raining, so are you. 

God works in mysterious ways

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ok I’ll be honest, I want Tblizz to rain! He’s been very negative about this storm threat and mehing it despite things looking great. Even the Pope is on board, and him going against the pope makes me angry!

Well I'm an atheist.  I hate the pope and think he causes more harm than good.  So do you hope I rain?  Because that will guarantee you rain every time.    Also does it still look like a top 10 blizzard, if it could even make blizzard status with 35 mph wind and 1/4 vis for 3 hours???

Calling @qqomega, what did you get in Lake George?  I saw some nice bands go through there last night but didnt see more than 5 inches reported.  

Just now, George001 said:

I’m rooting for a low in the 970s to go over the canal. 

Ok, me too man!  Im with you allll the way(not really even though it's going over the canal the deformation bands assuming it was strong enough and there was enough moisture would probably not be far enough NW to give it to me).  But not you either,  so Ill take it.  I'm actually rooting against you now! 970 aint gonna happen there's no phasing, this is a transfer of energy not a combination of it.   I know you dont want to be the jackpot (apparently) but the heavy snows happens in strong storms approx 150mi NW of the low in a strong storm that has phased.  Like the benchmark might be good for you.  Or a little se of it even.    Man, I am probably the 2nd least knowledgable person on this forum.  Can you guess who number 1 is?

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

My area got buried in Jan 2011, and both of those storms went over the cape. Just need a strong enough storm, I’m not worried about rain as long as the low is to my SE.

Ok I'll bite!  What's a strong storm?  I see a 991 GFS and a 988 euro certainly no bomb.  It forms and scoots east.  A bomb needs to drop 24 mb's in 24 hours.  That aint happening.  

4 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Underperformed here. 6 by early afternoon. Round 2 has a burst tonight, but don’t see the 12-18 verifying. Good refresh nonetheless and lots of refreshes coming up. Some good late feb/early March skiing and back to 100 percent open.


.

I know they painted Jay as 12-18 but that was never really in the cards and the afd's called it out that the border was going to have drying issues and it did.  It took a long time for that column to saturate last night.  It was snowing over my head for 3 hours before I saw a flake.  If I dont get an inch tonight I will agree on the bust.  So far I have had everything thrown at me with no additional accum.  Freezing rain, sleet, ice pellets, graupel, and snow, damn you warm nose (who you callin warm nose). Still a weak disturbance to come through later though.  Maybe we get an inch then.    

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I think it will come north more, but not a lot. The blocking forces the low to redevelop, but that doesn’t mean it will go over the benchmark and give snow to the mid Atlantic and cape. Most guidance is inside the benchmark, not over it. It is very possible that the low ends up going over the canal, leading to rain snow line issues. It wouldn’t take a massive north adjustment for that to happen, and I really think that’s more likely than the jackpot being SE. Honestly, I’m rooting for that because it would mean a stronger storm even though my area wouldn’t be the jackpot with that track. I’d rather get 20 while someone north of me gets 30 than get 15 while everyone else gets 12, so I say bring on the north trends. In this scenario, Tblizz and Metfan would get some rain. 

Dude Cape Cod Canal is close to the best track for me in Northern Vt (when crossing it from SW to NE into the gulf of maine).  Inside the benchmark still works for me a little but usually I need you to be screwed for me to get the goods synoptically.    I hate the 40/70 benchmark.  I'm usually the cold H for those storms and it's usually South Shores best bet.  Benchmark is too far north to affect the mid atlantic unless the low forms further S and is tracking NE.  This storm if you took it verbatim from the models today looks to be forming just SSE/SE of Long island and progressing east not affecting the Mid atlantic at all, if it comes north, you have serious issues and moves the jackpot to me.  So please keep pushing for north but not enough for a warm tongue to reach me

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM is good up this way, the blocked SE flow and then unblocked westerly flow helps on the east slopes throughout NNE.

Got me near a foot, will not push out of bed  Isnt the nam a little overboard with qpf?  NWS does say anomoulous qpf though

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS Most of the snow lovers on this board will take 2 feet anytime. Is December preferable to March? Sure.

ok maybe 2 ft was pushing it, 3/4-6/2003 in methuen, I was there, I can still see my wife's car buried in the andover t parking lot!!

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The SSW is trending stronger on the models. This is actually starting to get really interesting, yes there is a lag but in New England March is a winter month. There are no guarantees the SSW will be favorable for us, but a shake up of the current pattern is welcome. Id rather roll the dice and hope for the best with an SSW than just be stuck in our current (awful) pattern. If things do pan out with the SSW, I disagree that it will be too late. Early March is just in time for a potential 3 week run of storm after storm. 3 weeks isn’t a super long time, but in a favorable pattern nearly an entire seasons worth of snow or even more in 3 weeks can happen (especially areas closer to the coast).

Man you are too much.  You need to move North.  You attempt to will everything that could possibly happen in a positive sense for snow lovers.  I think you are now trying to temper it by adding things like (awful) pattern but you are missing the point of who you are speaking with and not realizing that most of the snow lovers on this board don't give a shit about 2 ft of wet snow that will melt in 2 days in March.  They want snow storm after snow storm that adds depth and stays.  Snow everywhere all the time.  Winter wonderland, in winter.  It's happened before, it will happen again, but thats what they want!  Will they be happy with that late season dump sure, overjoyed, no, because they didnt get to experience the joy of the years it happened before.  When it lasted. 

This winter has sucked in Vermont, it's been bad, but we have snow and now we've had it for weeks just like we should because it's Vermont.  I want more but Im ok, but I can feel the pain of my homies down south.  There have been years where they get more and we still do ok on nickel and dime.  But this year I truly feel bad, as my god you just cant win down there this year.  

There's nothing wrong with being positive, but you kind of take it to a delusional level.  Sometimes you just have to say, this just isnt the year. Enjoy what the future shows from modeling, this year, it's been nothing but bad news for almost everyone on the east coast. 

Nice night, need to yell at the wife for all the lights on, but it does make a good pic

I got some good video, now I have to figure out how to upload/share it

I love stories.  Good one mreaves, I cant reply until after this Just started snowing, looks like fun

Also it's crazy to see it warming up over the past few hours knowing whats coming!  We made it to 27F, it dropped to 25 and now its 29 only to plummet in the next 24 hours.  Looking forward to a squall, blink and you might miss it.  Looks like it's been hitting Jay for a bit now but no idea if it's virga or not.  Also they closed for tomorrow which I think is unprecendented.  I've never heard of a ski area closing because of wind and wind chill preemptively.  I've skied Stowe for 35 years and dont recall it ever happening.  Well wind yes, but not wind chill.  And not the night before. 

There was a day in 94 that I rode the gondy and the wind chill was really close to -100 and they closed it like 10 minutes after I got off because the winds came on suddenly.  I was well prepared for it  and it was a true struggle to even move on upper gondolier but by the time I got to the top of gondolier the wind was half of what it was at the cliff house and so therefore was the wind chill, I lived.   Coldest weather I have ever experienced in my life and I was young enough to enjoy it.  There was no more skiing that day.  94 was cold. Feb 94 had -38 in Stowe.  I recall leaving  Berts (the old berts before it burned down) at like 2:30 am ( i wasnt drunk), and I started my 1987 subaru 30 minutes before.  Even after driving to randolph road to give someone a ride home it was still going brrbrrbrrrbrrbrr which is the sound you engine makes when it's that cold, Ill never forget that sound jsut a low hum of desperation.  It simply could not warm up.  I think that's the year the shed burned down too and was an ice castle when the fire dept was done with it, that was January though.  Thanks Pinatubo?

I worked in the race dept running the old nascar course on that trail for years and never had anything like that but no shortage of -25F with high wind stuck there for hours.  What's coming doesnt compare to that cold and yet all this hype.  Im not proud but man am I prone to frostbite in my fingers from those days.  Merriam didn't care, Nick didnt care.  Scott didnt care.  Racers like the cold and we need that 2 bucks.

Best of luck Jeff, Bolton sounds like a good plan and it will be warming up Sunday which like eternal enlightment on your deathbed from the dalai lama, you have that going for you.  I cant speak to it like Jspin can so I'll defer to him.  I feel like I'm on shark tank and you want QVC and should go with Lori.  

Thumping right now at Stowe, But only 4 inches so far...and my backyard at 820' in Waterbury has 3"

Ok up to 3 now and it's dumping.  It's like that dryslot stopped in N NY and we are getting all the goodies.  Wooooooo

Been coming down but no 1 in/hr.  I've had 2 on the day and about 1/2"/hr rate in the last 20

That being said I think it's funny how the grids are drawn.  He may not understand our microclimate.  I fall in the small sliver of 4-5 inches vs 6-7 I cant accept this.    I crack myself up

There's definitely cause to be somewhat excited.  We shall see.  I think it's interesting that new guy at NWS from BOS is getting heavily involved says something (Chai).   A noticable change in AFD.  Very in depth!!   

I still see this as my wish analog 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm really getting 2001/2018 vibes for the latter portion of this season.

Interesting please expand, both good years in N vt but one epic

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lololol .. George, I love your reverse psychology. It will snow. If it doesn't snow for the rest of this winter, it will snow next winter. If doesn't snow next winter. It will snow the winter after. The point is it will snow again, and I think sooner than later. You don't have to make yourself and talk yourself into loving a rainstorm because you're so frustrated and fed up with rain after rain after rain. 

How with that said, I have a rain gauge and a little weather station outside and I love it because it shows me inside what we've seen. Whether it be rain or snow. That's really cool to know.

I read this as so english

Hi I am from Vermont.  I did live in Methuen for a while and have fam in N Andover, and the travails of your area do indeed suck,  I do get a little sad when you dont think about our plight.  We SHOULD have more snow than you and so often we dont.  Think of the gifted when you talk about snow.  It hurts our feelings when we dont get as much as you even though we ususally get soo much more.  Think about how we feel.  That's all I ask.  I have about 3 inches of very wet snow right now, it's slush that's going to freeze into oblivion.  Just feel our pain for a minute.

fyi I had to google the use of travails and change the text of this statement TIL

The stake is only at 18!!!!!!!!

On 1/12/2023 at 6:54 AM, Ginx snewx said:

This is a riot 

glad you enjoyed it, fookin hell we need snow