dmcginvt

It's not as messy ass the last pic looks

Partner runs a snowshoe tour experience out of the house.  Despite me following this storm for 2 weeks saying it's possible but unlikely they still booked.  I said expect 3 inches tops.  They didnt care if they were walking on bare ground as they are from TX.  Man did they get lucky as we had 6 inches by go time.  They end up at this little outdoor bar/firepit area.

 

 

 

59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I love Tim, ski with him, but lol I give him crap for going ballz in every time.  Adding another one to the list to rib him over.

 

sounds like old Jim Roemer, I met him in the 90's at the backyard, or maybe the 2000's.  Was he your predecessor, I'm pretty sure he did forecating for the mountain back then,  But he was so full of shit maybe he didn't ha!  He would hype every storm but he was right the time Jay got like 40 inches and no one else came close along the spine, he called that and became a hero.

 

Yeah, sorry for the scroll thru on mobile it didn’t seem so bad on a computer.  Buddy in s burl said it started raining an hour ago but it’s snowing hard now, enjoy

3 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Based on the trends today, dead on the money

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

I don't disagree actually.

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

he still post great write ups here

hopefully next week will pull him out of retirement and into amwx

FYI I was in Stowe 2.5 miles north of town and we got 38in. and it was 4 inches per hour from 2-5 pm on the 14th

 

4ft tall trashcans

 

From the archive

If you guys dont know about this it's the best thing ever. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/ I mean really, you can relive every afd and do unthinkable things to.  

The storm of a lifetime for me.  I curated the best parts of every AFD leading up to the best storm of our lifetimes for N Vermont.  Enjoy

 

FXUS61 KBTV 100145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
845 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

OTHERWISE...LOW/MID LVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND SYSTEM AND OVERALL 
EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BY 
WEDS INTO THURS. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT AMOUNT OF INTERACTION 
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON WEDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW 
PRES NEAR HATTERAS. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL 
SHOW COASTAL LOW PRES TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA. WE WL 
RECEIVE ANOTHER CHC FOR -SN ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND 
FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS ACRS OUR CWA LATE 
WEDS INTO THURS. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH BEST 
CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS THE MTNS. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

SRN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR HATTERAS DURING MID WEEK TIME FRAME TO STAY 
WELL OFFSHORE OF REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM BOMBS ACROSS THE 
ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND 
STRENGTHENS ACROSS AREA. THUS TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BY 
THU/FRI ALONG WITH INCREASING CHCS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED 
SNOWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

COLDEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT CAA AND 
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS AREA. THEN A GRADUAL 
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED BY WED AS MEAN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES 
ALOFT BUILD ACROSS NERN CONUS. SRN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR HATTERAS DURING MID WEEK TIME FRAME TO STAY 
WELL OFFSHORE OF REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM BOMBS ACROSS THE 
ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND 
STRENGTHENS ACROSS AREA. THUS TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BY 
THU/FRI ALONG WITH INCREASING CHCS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED 
SNOWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS 
APPARENT TRACK...WHICH HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW MDL RUNS. 
06Z/12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BRINGING THE WED SYSTEM CLOSER 
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN BETTER CHANCE FOR 
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR E VT. MDL TRACK BRINGS SYSTEM NEAR THE 40/70 
BENCHMARK...BFR MVG INTO GULF OF MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURS 
MORNING. WILL INCR POPS MAINLY FOR E VT/CT RIVER VALLEY TO CHANCE 
FOR NOW...AND SL CHANCE FOR REST OF CWA. ANY FURTHER TRACK WEST 
COULD BRING POTENTIAL ACCUM SNOWFALL FOR E VT. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE 
COUNTRY...BUILDING ESE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP 
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA...AND WITH SFC SYSTEM REMIANING NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER EASTERN CANADA...WILL HAVE SL CHANCE POPS FOR 
-SW/INCR CLDS AS WELL...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS WILL 
GET ENHANCED A BIT AS A WK TROUGH MVS OVER TOP OF RIDGE IN THE GREAT 
LKS ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NGT INTO EARLY WED MORN 
PRECIP-FREE WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
443 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

THEN A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A CLOSELY 
WATCHED AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL SNOW MAKER FOR PORTIONS 
OF THE FA BY WED/FRI TIME FRAME.
&&
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES DURING THE LONGER TERM PORTIONS OF THE 
FCST...WITH POSSBL SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR NEW ENGLAND...THE 
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDED. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLNS 
NOW TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WITH EVENTUAL 
TRACK/POSN OF COASTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC 
SEABOARD TUESDAY. WIDELY DISPARATE SOLNS AMONG MODELS IN REGARD TO 
HOW OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS CONUS DURING THE MID WEEK 
TIME FRAME...AND THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING EVENTUAL WX 
SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION. IF GFS SOLN IS CORRECT...WHICH APPEARS 
TO HAVE MAJORITY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT (INCLUDING THE HEAVILY DOMINATED 
NAM/WRF SREF) AT THIS POINT OUR AREA WOULD RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW. 
THOUGH IF ECMWF SOLNS PANS OUT...IMPACTS WOULD BE MUCH MORE 
CONSIDERABLE. THIS MODEL HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 
48 HOURS THAN THE GFS...SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS SOME MERIT. OF MORE 
CERTAINTY WILL BE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DURING 
WED/THU TIME FRAME...SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWS 
DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL INTRODUCE CHC OF LIGHT SNOWS FOR 
WED...AND LEAVE IT AT THAT ATTM...DEFERRING TO FUTURE SHIFTS FOR 
FURTHER ANALYSIS AS EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007
  
  .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR WINTER EVENT POTENTIAL FOR THE EXTENDED. LATEST MDL RUNS HAVE 
DRAGGED COASTAL SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NEW ENG COASTLINE...WHICH IN 
TURN NOW FORCES MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE FA. UPPER TROUGH 
OVER CENTRAL U.S. DRAGS LOW CLOSER TO THE AREA AS IT MVS EAST. WITH 
AMPLE QPF FROM THE ATLANTIC FEEDING INTO SYSTEM...SIGNIFCANT 
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. HARDEST HIT AREAS LOOK TO BE SC VT..ESPECIALLY 
WIND/ORANGE CTYS...SO HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY FOR NOW...AND WILL LET 
LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE THE POPS AS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. MDLS BEGIN TO 
MV TOWARDS THE NE TOWARDS THE MAINE COASTLINE BY WED 
NGT/THURS...SHIFTING PRECIP SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF E VT. BY 
LATE THURS INTO SATURDAY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AS 
COASTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WRAPS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS 
WILL PUT MAINLY THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR N 
VT...INTO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM. MTN AREAS OF NE VT 
WILL BE CLOEST TO SYSTEM AND HAVE BEST POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE ADVECTS 
AROUND THE SYSTEM. WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW 
MVS OFF THE COASTINTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE REGION TO BEGIN TO CLR 
OUT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
I TOOK THIS OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW PRVS GRIDS WITH NEIGHBORING 
OFFICES...THE 12Z RUNS...18Z GFS AND NOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z MON 
NAM. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MDLS LEANING
TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS OF A FEW DAYS AGO...THAT BEING 
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN FACT...THE TREND CONTS AND HAS A TRACK ACRS 
SE NEW ENGLAND FOR A WINTRY MIX IN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND BUT STL 
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT FOR MY FA.

THESE MORE RECENT TRACKS PLACE THE COASTAL FNT SLGTLY INLAND WITH A 
STG SE TO NW AND E TO W BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS VT. PWATS OF AN INCH OR 
GTR ARE ADVECTING INTO THE COASTAL FNT WITH A SUB-TROPICAL 
CONNECTION. 

THESE TRACKS BRG A SE-E TO NE FLOW AT LLVLS ACRS FA WHICH FOR NE VT 
MEANS TRAVELING ACRS NH WHITE MTNS AND PSBL SGNFCT PCPN SHADOWING IN 
THE ERLY STAGES TIL SFC LOW TRACKS INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND GULF OF ME 
THEN A NNE FLOW WL BRG SGNFCT WRAPARD AND THE BRUNT OF THE STORM TO
THIS AREA. ALSO...IF TRACK COMES INLAND TOO MUCH...CONCERNS WITH 
WHERE THE DRY SLOT SETS UP AND THAT CUD LWR AMTS CONSIDERABLY.

ATTM...A SIGNIFICANT...MAJOR WINTER STORM LOOKS MORE AND MORE 
PROMISING FOR ENTIRE FA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FM ADRNDKS E. ANY 
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER SE WUD FVR VT MORE AND NY LESS.

I/M NOT GOING TO PUT SNOWFALL ESTIMATES IN THIS DISCUSSION AS STL 
TOO MUCH TIME AND THUS PTNL FOR TOO MUCH HYPE. ALSO...WHEN YOU/RE 
TALKING THESE POTENTIAL AMTS...ANY SLGT DFRNCS IN TRACK/QPF CAN MEAN
SGNFCT SNOWFALL DFRNCS.

THE BEST THING...BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MAJOR WINTER 
STORM WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

ATTENTION ON TUESDAY WILL TURN TO EVOLUTION OF EXTRATROPICAL 
CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /OK PANHANDLE 
HOOK/ INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z TUESDAY. SINCE 
YESTERDAY...THE NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED 
PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH 
SRN STREAM TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A COMPLICATING 
INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST 
CROSSING SERN AZ AT 0930Z PER WV IMAGERY. THE GULF OF MEXICO WAVE 
MAY BE INFLUENCING THE 00Z GFS SOLN SFC LOW TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON 
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS AN OPEN QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THIS ADVERSELY 
IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC LATE 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ANY EVENT...ALL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 
GFS/SREF ENSEMBLES...INDICATE 2NDRY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT VCNTY OF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...A VERY 
IMPRESSIVE H3 COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD 
BETWEEN ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF 
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND DEVELOPING JET ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS 
NEW ENGLAND WEST OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. VERY IMPRESSIVE 
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO DEEP-LAYER UVV AND STG SUBSEQUENT 
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE AS IT LIKELY TRACKS INSIDE 40N 70W 
BENCHMARK TO NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH 
MAGNITUDE OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT/ESELY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AND 
ACROSS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGION H8/H7 LAYER INTO VERMONT AND 
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT 
LOOKS PARTICULARLY STRONG AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 60KT SELY 
850MB FLOW ACROSS THE REGION JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG TEMP 
GRADIENT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PW VALUES APPROACH 0.65 INCHES ACROSS 
SRN FA WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW SNOW RATIOS 
/12:1-14:1/ DURING PERIOD OF MAX FORCING. SOME SHADOWING IS POSSIBLE 
ST. JOHNSBURY/LWR PASSUMPSIC VLY AREA...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT S+ 
WEDNESDAY AFTN BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING 
1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. NNWWD EXTENDING INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND 
POSSIBLE FRONTOGENTIC/BANDED SNOW AXIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES 
EVEN FURTHER...BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT IN THESE MESOSCALE 
BANDED STRUCTURES SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THEIR SPATIAL 
PLACEMENT. EXPECTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE VERY DIFFICULT MUCH OF 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS 
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SOME MIX 
OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...AND HAVE 
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS 
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 
12+ INCHES OF SNOW /ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS/ GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW 
SYSTEM MOTION...STG FORCING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE 
REGION. SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK AND MESOSCALE STRUCTURES 
WILL ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMTS AND THESE WILL BE REFINED AS 
EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME.  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES ACRS ENTIRE AREA. CLOSE ERLY AFTN COORD 
WITH WFO ALY. 

ERLY AFTN SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC HI WRN CANADA WITH RDG ESE INTO 
ERN ONT. ARCTIC CDFNT MOVG SE ACRS SRN VT ATTM. DVLPG STORM SYS TX 
PNHNDL PER ANALYSIS AND GFS 18Z PSN. STG RDG TO N WL SERVE TO 
BLOCK/SLOW NORTHWARD MOVMT AND FAVOR CSTL RE-DEVELOPMENT. STG H/8 
GRADIENT FM NYC-MO. H/5 JET CORE FM GRTLKS TO NEW ENG WITH JET 
STREAK NOTED WRN TX-ERN OK. PREFER SOLN CLOSER TO GFS...WITH OLD 
PRIMARY TRACKING FM OH VLY INTO ERN PA...BUT SECONDARY TAKING OVER 
AND TAKING A BIT W OF GFS PRBLY OVR THE OUTTER CAPE.

SATL IMAGERY INDCS CLRG SKIES...AND VAD WNDS GNRLY 10-20 MPH BUT 
TREND IS DMNSHNG. THUS FOR TNGT WL GO MSTLY CLR AS ARCTIC AIRMASS 
SETTLES OVR AREA...WITH HI PRES RDG EXTDG ACRS NRN NY INTO SRN NEW 
ENG LATE TNGT INTO TUE. WL GO A FEW DGRS COLDER THAN MAV TNGT AND 
CLOSE TO MAV ON TUES.

THEREAFTER THE FCST BCMS MORE COMPLICATED. SIGNIF WINTER STORM 
SHAPING UP FOR LATE TUES NGT INTO THURS. PREFER SOLN BTWN NAM AND 
GFS...LEANING TWD THE GFS. CURRENT THINKING IS STORM SYS REORGANIZES 
N CAROLINA/VA CAPES AND MOVES NE TO THE OUTTER ARM OF THE CAPE. WL 
STILL INCLUDE MXD PCPN SE PTN OF AREA BASED ON OLD PRIMARY STORM 
TRACKING INTO ERN PA WITH SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT. SNW DVLPS ACRS AREA 
LATE TUES NGT S TO N. CATEGORICAL SNOW WEDNESDAY...HVY AT TIMES. 
PCPN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES PTNS OF ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES.

STORM TRACKS TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURS MRNG WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF TO 
SNW SHWRS W PTN OF AREA AND PDS LGT SN ERN VT OVRNGT WITH SCT SNW 
SHWRS ON THURS. TOTAL QPF APRS TO BE 1.5-1.75 INCHES. 

RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGRS OVR MAV TEMPS WED-THURS...ALTHO STILL 
PLENTY COLD. THUS THIS STORM SYS WL BE SIGNIF BECAUSE OF THE 
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...WINTER STORM 
WATCH CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG.

EXACT TRACK OF STORM...AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...APRS TO 
FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OUR AREA...ESPECLY NRN TWO THIRDS. EARLY SNOWFALL 
ESTIMATES FOR THE STORM WOULD BE 8 TO 14 INCHES IN THE VALLEY AND 12 
TO 16 INCHES IN THE MTNS. FUTURE FCST SHIFTS WL FINIALIZE THESE 
NUMBERS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT NOREASTER WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING -- SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED IN SOME SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY DURING THE PAST 24 HRS FOLLOWING MONDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
WNWLY H5 FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY A FEW 
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM NRN ONTARIO SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN 
VT...ALLOWING FOR ONLY LGT NWLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS. 2-M TEMPERATURES 
ARE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH 9Z READINGS OF 
-26F AT KSLK AND -14F AT KMSS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR 
AND COLD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO 
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SW. IT WILL 
LITERALLY BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 

REGARDING UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WV IMAGERY AT 09Z SHOWS PRIMARY 
SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONE CROSSING SERN OKLAHOMA WITH UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ESEWD ACROSS NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOUD CANOPY IS 
ALREADY QUITE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NWD INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES WITH A T-BONE TYPE FRONTAL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN IR 
IMAGERY. THE 00Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT 
ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF FEATURES. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN 
APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY ROBUST AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW 
NEAR THE VA CAPES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS COASTAL CYCLONE HAS THE 
BENEFIT OF A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND EXTREME 
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A COUPLED H25 JET STRUCTURE ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...ALLOWING THE LOW TO EMBARK UPON A CONTINUED 1-2MB/HR 
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD BUZZARDS BAY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 
00Z GFS NOW SHOWS THIS COASTAL TRACK AFTER BEING AN EASTWARD 
OUTLIER YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST WITH THE SFC 
LOW...WITH A 969MB MINIMUM PRESSURE OVER NERN MASSACHUSETTS AT 06Z 
THURSDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM DEEPENING SO QUICKLY AND FAR TO OUR 
SOUTH...A CLOSED 700MB CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ACROSS E-CENTRAL 
NEW/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MASSIVE 
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ORIENTED N-S ACROSS VT/ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK 
ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS 
AIDED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW 
CENTER...AND A ESELY H7 FLOW OF 60-70KTS ACROSS THE CT RIVER VLY. 
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH LARGE 
RIMING POTENTIAL OF SNOW FLAKES KEEPING SNOW RATIOS IN 10:1-15:1 
RANGE ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THIS EVENT...DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES IN 
THE TEENS MOST SECTIONS AND LOWER 20S IN SERN VT. 

OVERALL EVOLUTION LOOKS THIS WAY: INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS BY 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF SNOWFALL BY 06Z SRN AREAS AND 10Z NRN 
SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING NWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND 
PROGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED 
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT LULL IN SNOWFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE 12-16Z 
WEDNESDAY AS MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL 
LOW GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BY 
18Z...LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SETS UP N-S ALONG THE GREEN 
MTNS WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM 
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT AND INTO NRN NY. AT THIS TIME...FEEL 
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO BE IN BEST OMEGA 
FIELDS DURING HEIGHT OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/SYNOPTIC ASCENT 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THE ADIRONDACKS 
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT...WIDESPREAD 1IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES 
ARE LIKELY...WITH AN EMBEDDED BAND VCNTY CHAMPLAIN VLY OR CENTRAL VT 
PRODUCING 2-4IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS 
POSSIBLE IN S-CENTRAL VT WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO 
CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS. INTENSE SFC LOW /NEAR 970MB/ GRADUALLY 
PULLS NNEWD ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING 
NLY/NWLY GRADIENT FLOW CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH 
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME 
SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH 
THRUSDAY MORNING. SO...EVEN AS SNOWFALL RATES TAPER OFF BY EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING...VSBY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW IN AREAS OF BLOWING 
SNOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE NEED FOR A 
BLIZZARD WARNING IF WINDS ARE ANY STRONGER. 

WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE MODEL QPF...WHICH INCLUDES THE 
06Z NAM SHOWING 3.17 STORM TOTAL QPF AT KBTV. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT 
KBTV HAS NEVER /SINCE 1883/ RECEIVED 2 LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN A 
24-HR PERIOD IN THE MONTH OF FEB /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/. THE 
00Z GFS INDICATED TOTAL QPF AROUND 2.5 IN THE KMPV VCNTY. BELIEVE 
ACTUAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...TO 
1.25-1.75 ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...EXCEPT AROUND ST. JOHNSBURY 
WHERE SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE WHITE MTNS WILL OCCUR 
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KEEPING TOTAL QPF CLOSER TO 1 INCH. WE BELIEVE 
THIS IS A REASONABLE APPROACH TO TAKE TOWARD THE QPF/SNOW AMTS AT 
THIS POINT IN TIME. 

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WE 
ANTICIPATE MAY REACH A TOP TEN EVENT IN BURLINGTON...AND WOULD BE OF 
HISTORIC SIGNIFICANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE 
ST. LAWRENCE VLY. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT 6-12 INCHES IN THE 
ST. LAWRENCE VLY...12-18 INCHES IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...12-20 
INCHES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY...AND 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
OUR FA IN VERMONT. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A 
QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE SNOW BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AS IS 
HINTED AT IN THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE QUESTION WOULD BE EXACTLY 
WHERE...AND THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS CAN NOT BE DETERMINED THIS FAR 
OUT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM. 

TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN NEAR 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. 

BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGH ON STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH 
HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL TRACK 
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE CAPE COD AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS SYSTEM IS IN FAVORABLE COUPLED JET 
AT 250 MB.  FORECAST DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB IS VERY STRONG ON 
WEDNESDAY...THUS FAVORING THE DEEPENING LOW.  THE RESULTING VERTICAL 
MOTION WILL BE VERY STRONG AND APPEARS TO WANT TO BE LAID OUT IN AN 
AXIS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO POINTS NORTHEAST.  WITH SUCH A 
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SYSTEM...FEEL HEAVY SNOW THREAT SHOULD BE JUST 
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA.  IF THERE IS ONE AREA THAT COULD SEE A 
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IT WOULD BE THE NORTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST 
VERMONT.  EXAMINATION OF 850 AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS SHOW A 
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MAXIMA...WHICH SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER 
SNOW.  THUS HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT IN 
PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.  WILL FORECAST 16 TO 26 INCHES 
IN THESE AREAS...12 TO 24 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME 
SLEET MAY MIX IN...AND 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
VALLEY.  INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 
ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND SEEING THE FAVORABLE CROSS-HAIR 
ORIENTATION OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH TO INDICATE WE COULD SEE SOME 
TWO TO FOUR INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 
INCH RANGE WITH A 10:1 OR 15:1 SNOW RATIO.  WHAT SHOULD HAVE A 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHWEST 
WINDS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
HIGHLIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE ZONES AND IN ANY 
STATEMENTS.  LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF 
MEETING BLIZZARD CRITERIA.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.  BUT WINDS 
WILL STILL BE A FACTOR ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES.  COULD ALSO HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
957 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 02Z SHOW A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS IS THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST...AS THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AT 02Z. SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS
THE REGION RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND BECAUSE OF THIS
IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
ALTHOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RETURNS MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION...THIS IS MAINLY SNOW THAT IS ALOFT...AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL DRY AS STATED IN THE REASONS
LISTED ABOVE...AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES
THE SURFACE.

WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO GIVE A TIME RANGE AS TO WHEN SNOW
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BETWEEN 2 AM EST AND 4 AM EST...EXCEPT BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. WILL ALSO RAISE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

...HISTORIC NOREASTER UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT MOST SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING ON STORM EVOLUTION BASED 
ON CONTINUED VERY CONSISTENT NWP GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z NWP SUITE 
...NEW 06Z NAM...AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOOKING AT 
OBSERVATIONS...SECONDARY SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY 
WITH LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SERN VA AT 994MB. NORFOLK OBSERVED A 4MB 
PRESSURE FALL DURING THE PAST HR...AND MAGNITUDE OF FALLS ALONG THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 2-3 
HRS. WE ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSED BY IR PRESENTATION...WITH RAPID CLOUD 
TOP COOLING /DOWN TO -65C/ JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NC JUST IN 
ADVANCE OF NEG TILT IN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE 
COMING INTO PLACE FOR EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF TODAY...WITH COASTAL CYCLONE MOVING NE REACHING BUZZARDS BAY 
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY WITH AN EXPECTED MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE 
AROUND 978MB. 

MEANWHILE...LEADING SURGE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING ENTIRE CWA EARLY 
THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF PRIMARY H7 LOW OVER WRN OHIO AT 08Z. 
NEARLY 90DEG OF VEERING IS NOTED IN KCXX VAD WIND PROFILE BETWEEN 
850MB AND 700MB INDICATIVE OF GEOSTROPHIC WAA. ALSO...700MB FLOW IS 
AROUND 60KTS FROM THE SW PER BGM 88D VAD WIND PROFILE. VERY 
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/SPEED CONVERGENCE INTO OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED AND SFC TEMPS 
HOVERING NEAR 1F AT KBTV THE ONE DIFFERENCE WE ARE NOTING IN THE 
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IS SOME BRIGHT BANDING EXTENDING INTO THE 
MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0830Z. THIS IS LIKELY SLEET...AND HAVE EXPANDED 
SLEET AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND 
ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH MODEL/S LIKELY UNDERDOING THE WARM LAYER 
SOMEWHAT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. 

WAA AXIS MAINTAINS STEADY LGT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACROSS 
MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY TROWAL AIRSTREAM 
AND INTENSE H8-H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BTV FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 
DIRECT IMPACT OF COASTAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. 
WITH A CLOSED H8 AND H7 CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH...MASSIVE ELY WAA 
WITH WINDS 50-70KTS WILL ADVECT AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 
2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...WITH DEEP-LAYER OMEGA INTERSECTING DENDRITE 
GROWTH LAYER OPTIMIZING SNOWFALL EFFICIENCY. WE SHOULD SEE 2-3 IN/HR 
SNOWFALL RATES AND NEAR ZERO VSBY...ESPECIALLY ALONG A STRONG 
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND THAT WILL LIKELY ORIENT FROM SSW-NNE SOMEWHERE 
VCNTY OF THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OR SLIGHTLY WEST OR EAST. THESE MESOSCALE 
DETAILS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND WILL LIKELY DETERMINE 
PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET. 

HAVE NOT MODIFIED SNOWFALL AMTS AT THIS POINT...WITH VALUES RANGING 
FROM 8-16 INCHES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...16-26 INCHES IN THE 
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/NRN VT...AND 12-24 
INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WITH SOME SLEET MIXING 
IN AND SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM WHERE BEST MESOSCALE DYNAMICS ARE 
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WE CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MODEL QPF...WHICH 
CONTINUE TO SHOW 2-3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WE HAVE NEVER HAD 
A 2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT STORM IN FEBRUARY AT KBTV IN A 24 HR 
PERIOD...AND BELIEVE 1.5-1.75IN LIQUID MAX WILL BE CLOSER TO 
REALITY. 

WE HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT GRADIENT WINDS LATE THIS 
AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AS COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO OUR LATITUDE. 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD GUST POTENTIAL 35 MPH EAST OF THE 
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND EVEN SOME 40 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE 
TONIGHT IN THE NE KINGDOM AS LOW TRACKS INTO ERN ME. SIGNIFICANT 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM MID-AFTN ONWARD...AND WITH 
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...CONDITIONS WILL 
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LATER TODAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH 
SURROUNDING WFO/S...HAVE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING ALL SECTIONS 
EXCEPT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER. 
TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED EXCEPT FOR EMERGENCY PURPOSES ACROSS THE 
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AND MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME CASES DURING 
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WE ASK OUR 
MEDIA AND EM PARTNERS TO EMPHASIZE THE DANGERS OF NEAR ZERO VSBY IN 
DEEP SNOW/BLOWING SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND CHILLS -10F TO -20F THIS 
EVENING AND TONIGHT. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1109 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
MAJOR STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND NO
INDICATIONS SUGGEST TO MAKE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND
MOST INTENSE PART OF STORM HAS YET TO HIT THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
INTENSE SNOW TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT WINDS TO BE INCREASING AND WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS
MAINTAINING ALL BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS ACROSS
THE AREA AS MAIN PART OF THE STORM HAS YET TO IMPACT US. FAVORABLE
OVERLAP OF 850 MB AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS NOW FOCUSED ON THE
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE ENTIRE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR INITIALLY
WITH THIS EVENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS SO STRONG THAT EVERYONE IN
THIS AREA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE
EVENT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS VIA AUTOMOBILE WILL BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
227 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND 
IS POISED TO REACH THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT.  VAD WIND 
PROFILE NOW SHOWING WINDS ALOFT ALL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY WITH 
TIME AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING POTENTIAL.  WITH CONTINUED 
SNOWFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO CREATE 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE 
COMMON AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.  FRONTOGENETIC 
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST 
VERMONT NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AT THE SAME TIME SNOW RATES 
SHOULD INCREASE AS OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL ARE MAXIMIZED 
OVER THIS SAME AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.  SO SHOULD START TO SEE 2-3 
INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.  OVERALL SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS LOOK 
GOOD AND WILL PROBABLY MENTION LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 30 INCHES OVER 
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.  WE 
HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP 8 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND IT 
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT.  PRECIPITATION WILL 
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM 
WILL PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER.  BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS 
WILL BE OVER...BUT THE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.  IN 
ADDITION...SHOULD SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS PUSHING ADVISORY 
CRITERIA...BUT WILL KEEP NUMBERS JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN 
ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT 
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH 
AT LEAST FRIDAY.  THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FAVOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW 
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH 
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDS ACRS FA SINCE MID-AFTN HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO
WND DOWN ON THE SN+ FRONT BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND SN/BLSN
TO REDUCE VSBY WITH GROUND BLIZZARD CONDS AND SNOW DRIFTS ALRDY
BEING RPTD AT 4-6 FEET.

DEFORMATION BAND ACRS CHMPL VLY EASTWARD ACRS NRN VT WITH AN
ADDTNL 2-4 INCHES PSBL BUT LCLZD 6 INCHES ALG WNW HIER ELEVATION
SLOPES WITH THE TREND CONT TO DECREASE OVRNGT.

ALRDY STATE OF EMERGENCIES HV BEEN DECLARED IN A FEW CTYS IN NRN
NY AND FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE AND NUMEROUS HIGHWAY...ROAD CREWS
AND LAW ENFORCEMENT...ROAD TRVL IS HAZARDOUS AT BEST AND FEEL BLIZZARD
WRNG SHLD CONT TIL NEW PKG ERLY THU MRNG TO PREVENT A FALSE SENSE OF
SECURITY AS IT STL REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HWVR...SNOW HAS ABATED IN ST LWRNC VLY WITH SNOWFALL AMTS MUCH
LESS THAN ELSEWHERE AND WNDS HV NOT DROPPED VSBY DOWN LIKE OTHER
LOCALES...THUS HV DROPPED HVY SNOW WRNGS FOR ST LWRNC VLY.

AS OF 10 PM...SNOWFALL AT KBTV 23.1 INCHES (WITH A FEW HRS TO GO)
- GREATEST FEBRUARY SNOWSTORM 
- TIED FOR 24 HOUR DAILY MAX SNOWFALL ALL-TIME 
- 3RD LARGEST SNOWSTORM

PLEASE SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR PAST RECORDS.

LIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE INFORMATION IS TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS TO 
IMPACT BURLINGTON ALONG WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL STATS 
FOR BURLINGTON DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FROM 1883 TO PRESENT.

***NEW DATA*** TOP FIVE MAXIMUM DAILY SNOWFALL AT BURLINGTON FOR A 
24 HOUR PERIOD:
1.) 23.1 JAN 14 1934
2.) 17.4 JAN  4 2003
3.) 16.9 DEC 25 1978
4.) 16.8 FEB  4 1995
5.) 15.7 MAR  3 1994

TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS AT BURLINGTON:
1.) 29.8 DEC 25-28 1969
2.) 24.7 JAN 13-14 1934
3.) 22.9 MAR 5-6 2001
4.) 22.4 MAR 13-14 1993
5.) 20.0 NOV 25 1900
6.) 19.7 JAN 25-28 1986
7.) 19.1 MAR 16-17 1937
8.) 18.8 DEC 14-15 2003
9.) 18.3 DEC 6-7 2003
10.) 17.8 JAN 3-4 2003 
10.) 17.8 FEB 4-5 1995
NOTE...ONLY ONE TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS HAS EVER OCCURRED IN 
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON...WITH ONLY A TOTAL OF 4 TOP 20 
GREATEST SNOW STORMS OCCURRING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV 
(17.1 FEB 25-26 1966...15.9 FEB 15-17 1909....15.7 FEB 7-8 1983).

THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF 
FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT.
1.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995
2.) 13.1 FEB 25TH 1966
3.) 12.1 FEB 16TH 1958
4.) 11.2 FEB 8TH 1947
5.) 11.0 FEB 7TH 1983

THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH 
OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT.
1.) 1.75 FEB 2ND 1981
2.) 1.71 FEB 7TH 1951
3.) 1.58 FEB 25TH 1915
4.) 1.34 FEB 16TH 1954
5.) 1.27 FEB 15TH 1939

THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 14TH AT BURLINGTON VERMONT IS 
7.8 SET BACK IN 2000. THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 
14TH IS 0.90 SET BACK IN 1937. 

OUR RECORDS SHOW THAT NO 24 HOUR DAILY QPF AMOUNT HAS EVER BEEN OVER 
1.75 FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV.

THE MAXIMUM MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 34.2 SET BACK IN 1958 
AND MINIMUM AMOUNT OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 1.3 SET BACK 
IN 1957 FOR BTV.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL EVENT AND NOREASTER RAPIDLY ENDING ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT AT 09Z. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE 
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON YESTERDAY/S 
EVENT...INCLUDING AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT THE 
BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /25.3 INCHES/. 

SFC ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS NOREASTER OVER FAR DOWNEAST MAINE WITH 
MIN SFC PRESSURE OF AROUND 976MB. SFC WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT HAS 
BEEN MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED 
DOWNWARD MIXING POTENTIAL. GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MODERATELY STG 
ACROSS ERN 2/3RDS OF FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL 
CAA SHOULD HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN WINDS 15-20KT 
WITH GUSTS 30KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
AROUND 2 FEET IN MOST AREAS...HAVE POSTED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY EASTWARD TO THE CT RIVER THROUGH 22Z TODAY. 
THIS WILL COVER IMPACT OF VERY LOW VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY 
OPEN TERRAIN WHERE LOFTING POTENTIAL AND DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF NEWLY 
FALLEN SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE GREATEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE 
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO FAR NERN VT AND NRN 
GREEN MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND LINGERING WRAP-AROUND 
MOISTURE WILL AID IN -SHSN ACTIVITY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS 
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NRN VT AND THE NRN GREEN MTNS. 
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED 
AND SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED DIGGING OUT FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM.  

WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE 
DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY...AND LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO 
ACROSS NRN ZONES. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS...WE/LL MEET WIND 
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NRN 
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COLDEST 2-M TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL. THIS 
NECESSITATES A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 
22Z THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS NEED FOR THE WIND 
CHILL ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT BASED ON WIND SPEEDS 
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY WEATHER DURING SHORT TERM WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO WHAT 
HAS HAPPENED OVER PAST 36 HOURS...THOUGH WILL FEATURE LIGHT 
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY BY LATER SAT NT AND ESP SUNDAY ALONG 
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SQUALLS AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT 
CROSSES REGION.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH 
BROUGHT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION YESTERDAY LIFTING 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW 
IN PROCESS OF TRAVERSING REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD GUSTY 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED TODAY UNDER WELL MIXED 
PBL...WHICH HAS LEAD TO OCCNLLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLSN AND 
LOW WIND CHILLS. DUE TO A GENERAL SETTLING/CRUSTING OF THE 
SNOWPACK...BELIEVE THREAT OF PROLONGED REDUCED VSBY CONTINUES TO 
LESSEN...THUS HAVE CANCELLED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS VT. 
NONETHELESS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE OCCL BRIEF BURSTS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE 
CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS NRN NY WITH THIS PACKAGE. 
SIMILAR GUSTINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...THOUGH 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY DUE TO WELL MIXED NBL. THUS 
WIDESPREAD SUB -20F WIND CHILL READINGS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW 
SITES COULD ECLIPSE THIS THRESHOLD SPORADICALLY THROUGHOUT THE 
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO OVERALL WX PICTURE...MAIN EMPHASIS WAS TO INCREASE 
POPS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING FRI 
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES 
SHOWING PRONOUNCED WAA/WRAP-AROUND LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE BEING 
PULLED SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DURING 
THIS PERIOD. COMBINATION OF WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW (290) SHOULD 
FAVOR NRN SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM CHITTENDEN COUNTY NORTHWARD 
FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY...THOUGH ALL OF THE NRN 
MTN REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. A 
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDL DUSTING TO 2 
INCHES FRIDAY EVENING EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. MEAN 
BNDRY LYR FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR SHSN ACTIVITY THE BROADER VALLEYS 
HOWEVER...AND WILL OFFER ONLY CHC POPS...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO 
ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 
LL LAPSE RATES/LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY 
WILL CLIMB SOMEWHAT FROM TODAY/S READINGS...RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE 
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREA WIDE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. IT APPEARS 
AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS 
TO REACH THE LOW 20S FRIDAY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...AND THE MID TO 
UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY. SOME CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH 
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IMMEDIATE WEST 
SLOPE COMMUNITIES.   

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 
HISTORIC SNOWFALL EVENT AT BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 
THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. CLIMATE RECORDS ARE KEPT FROM 1883 TO PRESENT 
FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT.

***NEW DATA*** TOP 5 MONTHLY SNOW TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON:
1.) 34.3 1958
2.) 33.8 1993
3.) 31.4 1947 
4.) 29.9 CURRENTLY AND 1954
5.) 29.7 2005

***UPDATED*** TOP FIVE MAXIMUM DAILY SNOWFALL AT BURLINGTON FOR A 
24 HOUR PERIOD:
1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007
2.) 23.1 JAN 14 1934
3.) 17.4 JAN  4 2003
4.) 16.9 DEC 25 1978
5.) 16.8 FEB  4 1995

***UPDATED***TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS AT BURLINGTON:
1.) 29.8 DEC 25-28 1969
2.) 25.7 FEB 14-15 2007
3.) 24.7 JAN 13-14 1934
4.) 22.9 MAR 5-6 2001
5.) 22.4 MAR 13-14 1993
6.) 20.0 NOV 25 1900
7.) 19.7 JAN 25-28 1986
8.) 19.1 MAR 16-17 1937
9.) 18.8 DEC 14-15 2003
10.) 18.3 DEC 6-7 2003

UPDATED...NOW TWO TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS HAS EVER OCCURRED IN 
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON...WITH A TOTAL OF 5 TOP 20 
GREATEST SNOW STORMS OCCURRING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV. 
BELOW IS THE TOP 5 SNOW STORMS EVER TO OCCUR IN THE MONTH OF 
FEBRUARY:

1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007
2.) 17.1 FEB 25-26 1966
3.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995
4.) 15.9 FEB 15-17 1909
5.) 15.7 FEB 7-8 1983

UPDATED...THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE 
MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT.
1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007
2.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995
3.) 13.1 FEB 25TH 1966
4.) 12.1 FEB 16TH 1958
5.) 11.2 FEB 8TH 1947

UPDATED...THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR 
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT.
1.) 1.94 FEB 14 2007
2.) 1.75 FEB 2ND 1981
3.) 1.71 FEB 7TH 1951
4.) 1.58 FEB 25TH 1915
5.) 1.34 FEB 16TH 1954

FOR MORE UPDATED INFORMATION ON DAILY RECORDS SET AT BURLINGTON SEE 
THE LATEST ALBRERBTV.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 14 2007 SET AT 
BURLINGTON...

A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF 25.3 INCHES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.8 SET IN 2000.

...RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL SET AT BURLINGTON...

A RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 25.3 INCHES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD 24 HOUR RECORD OF 23.1 SET ON 
JANUARY 14 1934.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION SET AT BURLINGTON...

A RECORD PRECIPITATION OF 1.94 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BURLINGTON 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.90 SET IN 1937.

THE MAXIMUM MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 34.2 SET BACK IN 1958 
AND MINIMUM AMOUNT OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 1.3 SET BACK 
IN 1957 FOR BTV.

&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY WEATHER DURING SHORT TERM WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO WHAT 
HAS HAPPENED OVER PAST 36 HOURS...THOUGH WILL FEATURE LIGHT 
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY BY LATER SAT NT AND ESP SUNDAY ALONG 
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SQUALLS AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT 
CROSSES REGION.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH 
BROUGHT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION YESTERDAY LIFTING 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW 
IN PROCESS OF TRAVERSING REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD GUSTY 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED TODAY UNDER WELL MIXED 
PBL...WHICH HAS LEAD TO OCCNLLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLSN AND 
LOW WIND CHILLS. DUE TO A GENERAL SETTLING/CRUSTING OF THE 
SNOWPACK...BELIEVE THREAT OF PROLONGED REDUCED VSBY CONTINUES TO 
LESSEN...THUS HAVE CANCELLED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS VT. 
NONETHELESS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE OCCL BRIEF BURSTS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE 
CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS NRN NY WITH THIS PACKAGE. 
SIMILAR GUSTINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...THOUGH 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY DUE TO WELL MIXED NBL. THUS 
WIDESPREAD SUB -20F WIND CHILL READINGS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW 
SITES COULD ECLIPSE THIS THRESHOLD SPORADICALLY THROUGHOUT THE 
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO OVERALL WX PICTURE...MAIN EMPHASIS WAS TO INCREASE 
POPS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING FRI 
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES 
SHOWING PRONOUNCED WAA/WRAP-AROUND LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE BEING 
PULLED SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DURING 
THIS PERIOD. COMBINATION OF WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW (290) SHOULD 
FAVOR NRN SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM CHITTENDEN COUNTY NORTHWARD 
FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY...THOUGH ALL OF THE NRN 
MTN REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. A 
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDL DUSTING TO 2 
INCHES FRIDAY EVENING EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. MEAN 
BNDRY LYR FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR SHSN ACTIVITY THE BROADER VALLEYS 
HOWEVER...AND WILL OFFER ONLY CHC POPS...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO 
ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 
LL LAPSE RATES/LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY 
WILL CLIMB SOMEWHAT FROM TODAY/S READINGS...RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE 
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREA WIDE.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBOX&e=200103050008

 

Man I love this archive

27 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003.  I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind.  What yr was it?   It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001

 

While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive

 

599 
FXUS61 KBOX 261713
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001


...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY
LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. 
CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. 


...PRVS DISC PER DRAG...

ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND 
NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC 
CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE 
QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN 
REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S 
OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A 
DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). 
LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN 
NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO 
EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN.  CONF ON HOW THIS 
UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL 
RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD 
PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST.  

MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO
        SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY.

STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E
GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS
TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z.  IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS
CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS.  NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA.

PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN
       BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS
       OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP
       TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX
       FMH TDY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON
WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE
FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN
LESS.

NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED
     EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE
     THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV
     IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD
     UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL
     BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING
     WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM
     DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST
     PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN
     REFILL THIS AFTN.

QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH
     AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP.

GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT
       3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME
       WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE
       HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF
       INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+
       AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF
       THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY
       WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET.

CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK
AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE
100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL
DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS
FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO
MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE
OF THE YEAR.

LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT

LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND
    EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF
    NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY
    ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR
    AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL
    WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF
    CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND
    APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK).

.BOX...WXA MA 22-23.
       SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS.
       SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW        
       WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY.

DRAG

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, low bar for me on Xmas..whitest Xmas I have ever seen was about a foot depth in 1995. Good odds I beat that.

I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003.  I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind.  What yr was it?   It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001

 

for posterity sake

On 12/10/2022 at 8:04 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-. 

so whats the verification thus far

10 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

600' 5 miles from the vt line. It's trying like hell to snow. White rain.

Hoping to dynamically cool. I can only assume that 3-400' above me it's pounding.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk


 

checks out thats VT/NH/MA borders, Bernardston def in the weird doesnt know what it wants to do zone

 

On 12/12/2022 at 3:59 PM, bwt3650 said:

River quai is one of my favorite trails anywhere, but it doesn’t matter if it’s snowing 3” an hour, you are always scraping on that head wall.


.

Same with the top of Starr unless you are skier side left and all of the National headwall at Stowe.  I can think of a few times National's headwall was grippable because the snow was all natural, but it's rare

why do we never hear miller c d and e?  Is It the same reason I hate the weather channel naming snowstorms? fu diaz, it's just a snowstorm

 

42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

My kids school closes ALOT it seems over the past 5-6 years.  Its a pretty large area kids come from for the school, not to mention they are tied into Bennington and Rutland as well. 

Burr and Burton?

 

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The tech center is technically a separate school. I believe the outlying towns bus their kids to it. 

Yup my partners kid went there and he was bussed from Harwood.  

1 minute ago, dmcginvt said:

What area does Spaulding cover outside of Barre and Barre City?

Ha nevermind I just read that's it, but it also has  the tech school which covers much more of Washington Cty.  Which thus makes it even more regional

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

When I was in grades 2-7 I went to school in Barre City. There were 5 or 6 neighborhood schools that went up to 5th grade, a middle school for 6th-8th and then the high school. Everybody walked to school or maybe their parents drove them, though that was rare. There were no buses and schools never closed. I’m not trying to sound like old cranky guy, it’s just the way it was. As you mentioned, now kids are trucked from a much wider area, it makes transport that much trickier. 20 years ago or more, Barre City closed the neighborhood schools and built a consolidated K-8 school and now buses kids. They have snow days now. And I understand it. 

What area does Spaulding cover outside of Barre and Barre City?

 

crazy, I think it sums up what everyone is reporting, especially that ithaca dude

 

 

 

 

37 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

It’s funny, when I was reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion and saw the following:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

634 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Travel will be very difficult on Friday, with both morning and evening commutes affected due to heavy snowfall rates.

 

And then I read the details on each time period in the discussion, and I though… there’s no way most schools are going to try to open tomorrow – heavy snow during just one of the commute periods would be enough to close, so with both it’s got to be a slam dunk.  After that I texted the family that I suspected schools will be closed tomorrow, and it wasn’t long before we got notifications from my wife’s school and my younger son’s school that they were closed.  Based on the timing of anticipated periods of heavier snowfall, it seems like a no brainer.

My kid graduated Stowe in 2014 and they rarely closed for anything less than a foot in all those years and it had to come fast.  I totally get the regional schools closing though.  But I see they are closed tomorrow!  Good for all the kids WOOOO!  

2 minutes ago, subdude said:

Got interviewed by WBZ Bos while walking across the parking lot at Aubuchon Hardware in Gardner. lol

lol buying a snow shovel??

1 hour ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Always love the feeling of anticipation ahead of the first big snowstorm.  My wife being a teacher, even get that nostalgic feeling waiting to see school closing list expand each time you check.  Love to see models consolidating around Boston to Cape Cod track.  And the front end thumps with these type of storms can be awesome.  

53 yrs old and I'm still like a school kid.  Do they still cancel school?  I figured after the pandemic it would just be zoom school

 

 

By weds all things are equal.   Got a snowy xmas look 'round here.  Bout time we got some snow!  I've lurked here for years, I love NNe because it's so chill, we know we will get our snow more often than not nickle and dime or synoptically.  The former being the way.  WE dont need no stinkin big dog like 2/14/07 (but we love it).   Give us 3 here 8 there a surprise 18 and then another 2 to freshen it up.  Way too many ipa's tonight my friends.  Seems like it's the only time i have the balls to post about the only thing I love more than beer and that is  the winter weather in northern vermont. (now posted in the right forum thread, d'oh)

Seems like no matter the model we end up in a similar place if it's true.  (by we I mean me pf, jspin, mreaves, and timp)