dmcginvt

Regardless, significant accumulations
are possible from the Adirondacks into the northern Green/White
Mountains and into northern Maine. There, WPC probabilities for at
least 12 inches of snow Sat-Sun are high (>70%). 

EPIC

wpc heavy snowfall disc

spreading snow across northern NYS into northern New England as
mid-level troughing digs into western NY/Lake Ontario and a
persistent band of FGEN translates eastward into the region. At the
same time, a system in the Southeast will start to lift
northeastward along the coast, bringing a surge of moisture
northward on strong 50-60kt winds at 850mb across Long Island.
Aloft, jet will start to buckle a bit and increase quite smartly to
over 150kts across Quebec, with much of northern New England in
the right entrance region of the jet. Surface high pressure will be
split to the north and east of the region, but a low pressure
track along and off the New England coast should maintain some
northeasterly cold air drainage into interior sections. This could
set up a narrow band of sleet and/or freezing rain in between snow
over interior locations and rain along the coast as mild SE flow
overrides the marginally sub-freezing interior locations. Snowfall
could be quite heavy at times, with HREF probs >1"/hr already
~60-80% early Saturday over northern NY/VT/NH, with snow continuing
eastward thereafter into Maine (beyond the 12Z HREF end time).
Snow ratios may be quite variable as the system evolves and may
also be dependent on time of day as well (esp with lower rates
outside the favored areas). Regardless, significant accumulations
are possible from the Adirondacks into the northern Green/White
Mountains and into northern Maine. There, WPC probabilities for at
least 12 inches of snow Sat-Sun are high (>70%). Lower amounts
around 4 inches are possible as far south as about I-90 across NY
and then turning northeastward across south central NH to coastal
Maine, especially west of I-95 in southern Maine.

Its a very quick thump if true.  GFS Euro both nams show it, serious fgen

wpc heavy snow

Yup, as expected after 12z guidance they have upped the snow significantly in the N.  

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=799424885552128&set=a.220831436744812&type=3&ref=embed_page

This map shows it, it might say 8 for me too, but I got way more than that.  Especially since I have a foot on the ground and can prove it  

20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

He was talking about the village though. I’m not sure where they ended up. 

I was in the village today, looked like 6 inches, but that's depth.  What fell we may never know.  But over 9in fell during this storm with anyone measuring with a board in the village and there's no question about that.  I have a foot otg and at least 20 fell.  I think ginx won. proximity to the mtn was def a factor, but it's full on winter in Stowe again even in the village  I had to go to work today at 782 mtn rd.  That .782 miles down the rd.  There was def 6 inches otg at 3 pm.  After the snow that fell, and then melted and almost disappeared, plus the snow on top of that there's simply now question it was more than 9"

.  

5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

This storm cycle is ongoing, but below is the current north to south listing of storm totals from the Vermont ski areas. Some totals are from early morning, and some are midday updates, so there’s going to be some extra heterogeneity at this point.

Jay Peak: 24”

Burke: 19”

Smuggler’s Notch: 15”

Stowe: 15”

Bolton Valley: 20”

Mad River Glen: 29”

Sugarbush: 19”

Middlebury: 13”

Pico: 27”

Killington: 27”

Okemo: 16”

Bromley: 14”

Magic Mountain: 15”

Stratton: 15”

Mount Snow: 9”

Curious about the MRG vs Bush.  Bush may only be going by their cam sites?  It was tough with all the wind.  Look at that 24 stowe cam.  The board gains nothing while the blown in piles up behind it   I loved see that.  Almost looked like it wanted to buried the thermo

I gave up on proper measurement this year because fuck it.  Im inconsistent.  But we got a ton of snow at 820' and then lost a ton of snow on Sun and then gained a lot back.  Right now the only important thing to me is there's a foot in my yard.  Yet a lot more fell but it's winter again and i like it.  

2 inches in an hour an 15, up to 5 I’m

right now theres a sharp northern cutoff sugarbush is getting killed, Im less then them and stowe is less than me

It's just dumping and I'm at near 4 now.  Its heavy and it's wet  

20 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

3 inches now those cat paws added up quickly!!  20 minutes of cat paws

sugarbush is killing it, nearing 6 in!

45 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

At 820' i have 2 inches so far, allyns cam at 4 and it's dumping.  Stowe's cam died.  Go fix PF  nevermind appears to be back now its only at 2

 

3 inches now those cat paws added up quickly!!  20 minutes of cat paws

At 820' i have 2 inches so far, allyns cam at 4 and it's dumping.  Stowe's cam died.  Go fix PF  nevermind appears to be back now its only at 2

I said mush, but it fits

I think 18z gfs says mush less snow

Its a great afd

And this thinking has changed with far less numbers explicitly.     

heavy precip rates wl help to cool the column just enough to support
the wet snowfall. Initial thoughts in terms of snowfall
accumulations for first part have changed very little, with a
dusting to a slushy inch or two valleys below 1000 feet, 2 to 8
inches midslopes, and 8 to 10 inches summits by midday morning
Sunday. It should be noted, adjusting the hrly temp by just a single
degree has significantly more or less snowfall acrs our region. Snow
ratios wl be low in the 4 to 8 to 1 range, and be highly dependent
upon elevation and snowfall rate, given marginal bl temps. The
potential for isolated to possibly scattered power outages is
increasing for Sat night into Sunday.

Tough to tell whats going to happen.  I see no doubt there's a good chance of upper elevation snow.  Yeah for them!  Probably cant fix the best trails but will improve skiing.  I think the models still show that upper mtn strong lower mtn rain or meh

52 to 36 in an hour

Wow so sad, we are the same age and I have been in Stowe since 87.  Have known hersince.  Sadly have only run into her once since the early 90's .  She was fucking rad and a joy to watch. 

Unless one of my servers dies I'm not going to Stowe for ANYTHING for the next 10 days.  Getting on rt 100 will be hard enough!  I hate this upcoming week.  

Im curious this next week actually shows some snow in the places that get snow.  Do you see it?  Or is it no real.  "Im high as a kite right now thanks to legal weed.  But I think we have some upslope coming

9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS Clown for the curious. I personally like the way it blesses me with the Monadnock lobe. Praise be the lobe.

that is an amazing penis?

As someone that lived in Methuen during the good years of 2000-2003, i feel for Ray.  But I have also live in Vermont for most of the years between 87 and now.  You want snow you go to the snow.  Ray should move to the Sierras.  The second he does, the snow will come back to Methuen. And Cali will enter a drought,  Then he should very quickly move back to enjoy the snow.