dmcginvt

It's not as messy ass the last pic looks

Partner runs a snowshoe tour experience out of the house. Despite me following this storm for 2 weeks saying it's possible but unlikely they still booked. I said expect 3 inches tops. They didnt care if they were walking on bare ground as they are from TX. Man did they get lucky as we had 6 inches by go time. They end up at this little outdoor bar/firepit area.

sounds like old Jim Roemer, I met him in the 90's at the backyard, or maybe the 2000's. Was he your predecessor, I'm pretty sure he did forecating for the mountain back then, But he was so full of shit maybe he didn't ha! He would hype every storm but he was right the time Jay got like 40 inches and no one else came close along the spine, he called that and became a hero.

Yeah, sorry for the scroll thru on mobile it didn’t seem so bad on a computer. Buddy in s burl said it started raining an hour ago but it’s snowing hard now, enjoy

I don't disagree actually.

hopefully next week will pull him out of retirement and into amwx

FYI I was in Stowe 2.5 miles north of town and we got 38in. and it was 4 inches per hour from 2-5 pm on the 14th 4ft tall trashcans

From the archive If you guys dont know about this it's the best thing ever. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/ I mean really, you can relive every afd and do unthinkable things to. The storm of a lifetime for me. I curated the best parts of every AFD leading up to the best storm of our lifetimes for N Vermont. Enjoy FXUS61 KBTV 100145 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 845 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007 OTHERWISE...LOW/MID LVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND SYSTEM AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BY WEDS INTO THURS. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON WEDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL SHOW COASTAL LOW PRES TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA. WE WL RECEIVE ANOTHER CHC FOR -SN ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS ACRS OUR CWA LATE WEDS INTO THURS. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS THE MTNS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 SRN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR HATTERAS DURING MID WEEK TIME FRAME TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM BOMBS ACROSS THE ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS AREA. THUS TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BY THU/FRI ALONG WITH INCREASING CHCS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 950 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 COLDEST DAY WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT CAA AND MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS AREA. THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED BY WED AS MEAN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT BUILD ACROSS NERN CONUS. SRN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR HATTERAS DURING MID WEEK TIME FRAME TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM BOMBS ACROSS THE ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS AREA. THUS TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BY THU/FRI ALONG WITH INCREASING CHCS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 243 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS APPARENT TRACK...WHICH HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW MDL RUNS. 06Z/12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BRINGING THE WED SYSTEM CLOSER TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY FOR E VT. MDL TRACK BRINGS SYSTEM NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...BFR MVG INTO GULF OF MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURS MORNING. WILL INCR POPS MAINLY FOR E VT/CT RIVER VALLEY TO CHANCE FOR NOW...AND SL CHANCE FOR REST OF CWA. ANY FURTHER TRACK WEST COULD BRING POTENTIAL ACCUM SNOWFALL FOR E VT. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...BUILDING ESE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA...AND WITH SFC SYSTEM REMIANING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN CANADA...WILL HAVE SL CHANCE POPS FOR -SW/INCR CLDS AS WELL...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS WILL GET ENHANCED A BIT AS A WK TROUGH MVS OVER TOP OF RIDGE IN THE GREAT LKS ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NGT INTO EARLY WED MORN PRECIP-FREE WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 THEN A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A CLOSELY WATCHED AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL SNOW MAKER FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA BY WED/FRI TIME FRAME. && MUCH UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES DURING THE LONGER TERM PORTIONS OF THE FCST...WITH POSSBL SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR NEW ENGLAND...THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDED. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLNS NOW TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WITH EVENTUAL TRACK/POSN OF COASTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. WIDELY DISPARATE SOLNS AMONG MODELS IN REGARD TO HOW OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS CONUS DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING EVENTUAL WX SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION. IF GFS SOLN IS CORRECT...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MAJORITY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT (INCLUDING THE HEAVILY DOMINATED NAM/WRF SREF) AT THIS POINT OUR AREA WOULD RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW. THOUGH IF ECMWF SOLNS PANS OUT...IMPACTS WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONSIDERABLE. THIS MODEL HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS THAN THE GFS...SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS SOME MERIT. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DURING WED/THU TIME FRAME...SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL INTRODUCE CHC OF LIGHT SNOWS FOR WED...AND LEAVE IT AT THAT ATTM...DEFERRING TO FUTURE SHIFTS FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS AS EVENT DRAWS NEAR. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 305 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAJOR WINTER EVENT POTENTIAL FOR THE EXTENDED. LATEST MDL RUNS HAVE DRAGGED COASTAL SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NEW ENG COASTLINE...WHICH IN TURN NOW FORCES MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE FA. UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL U.S. DRAGS LOW CLOSER TO THE AREA AS IT MVS EAST. WITH AMPLE QPF FROM THE ATLANTIC FEEDING INTO SYSTEM...SIGNIFCANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. HARDEST HIT AREAS LOOK TO BE SC VT..ESPECIALLY WIND/ORANGE CTYS...SO HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY FOR NOW...AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE THE POPS AS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. MDLS BEGIN TO MV TOWARDS THE NE TOWARDS THE MAINE COASTLINE BY WED NGT/THURS...SHIFTING PRECIP SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF E VT. BY LATE THURS INTO SATURDAY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AS COASTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WRAPS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PUT MAINLY THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR N VT...INTO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM. MTN AREAS OF NE VT WILL BE CLOEST TO SYSTEM AND HAVE BEST POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE ADVECTS AROUND THE SYSTEM. WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW MVS OFF THE COASTINTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE REGION TO BEGIN TO CLR OUT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1000 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... I TOOK THIS OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW PRVS GRIDS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE 12Z RUNS...18Z GFS AND NOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z MON NAM. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MDLS LEANING TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS OF A FEW DAYS AGO...THAT BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN FACT...THE TREND CONTS AND HAS A TRACK ACRS SE NEW ENGLAND FOR A WINTRY MIX IN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND BUT STL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT FOR MY FA. THESE MORE RECENT TRACKS PLACE THE COASTAL FNT SLGTLY INLAND WITH A STG SE TO NW AND E TO W BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS VT. PWATS OF AN INCH OR GTR ARE ADVECTING INTO THE COASTAL FNT WITH A SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION. THESE TRACKS BRG A SE-E TO NE FLOW AT LLVLS ACRS FA WHICH FOR NE VT MEANS TRAVELING ACRS NH WHITE MTNS AND PSBL SGNFCT PCPN SHADOWING IN THE ERLY STAGES TIL SFC LOW TRACKS INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND GULF OF ME THEN A NNE FLOW WL BRG SGNFCT WRAPARD AND THE BRUNT OF THE STORM TO THIS AREA. ALSO...IF TRACK COMES INLAND TOO MUCH...CONCERNS WITH WHERE THE DRY SLOT SETS UP AND THAT CUD LWR AMTS CONSIDERABLY. ATTM...A SIGNIFICANT...MAJOR WINTER STORM LOOKS MORE AND MORE PROMISING FOR ENTIRE FA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FM ADRNDKS E. ANY TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER SE WUD FVR VT MORE AND NY LESS. I/M NOT GOING TO PUT SNOWFALL ESTIMATES IN THIS DISCUSSION AS STL TOO MUCH TIME AND THUS PTNL FOR TOO MUCH HYPE. ALSO...WHEN YOU/RE TALKING THESE POTENTIAL AMTS...ANY SLGT DFRNCS IN TRACK/QPF CAN MEAN SGNFCT SNOWFALL DFRNCS. THE BEST THING...BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 500 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 ...MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY... ATTENTION ON TUESDAY WILL TURN TO EVOLUTION OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /OK PANHANDLE HOOK/ INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z TUESDAY. SINCE YESTERDAY...THE NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A COMPLICATING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST CROSSING SERN AZ AT 0930Z PER WV IMAGERY. THE GULF OF MEXICO WAVE MAY BE INFLUENCING THE 00Z GFS SOLN SFC LOW TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS AN OPEN QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THIS ADVERSELY IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ANY EVENT...ALL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS/SREF ENSEMBLES...INDICATE 2NDRY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT VCNTY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...A VERY IMPRESSIVE H3 COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD BETWEEN ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND DEVELOPING JET ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEST OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO DEEP-LAYER UVV AND STG SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE AS IT LIKELY TRACKS INSIDE 40N 70W BENCHMARK TO NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH MAGNITUDE OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT/ESELY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGION H8/H7 LAYER INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS PARTICULARLY STRONG AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 60KT SELY 850MB FLOW ACROSS THE REGION JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG TEMP GRADIENT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PW VALUES APPROACH 0.65 INCHES ACROSS SRN FA WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW SNOW RATIOS /12:1-14:1/ DURING PERIOD OF MAX FORCING. SOME SHADOWING IS POSSIBLE ST. JOHNSBURY/LWR PASSUMPSIC VLY AREA...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT S+ WEDNESDAY AFTN BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. NNWWD EXTENDING INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND POSSIBLE FRONTOGENTIC/BANDED SNOW AXIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN FURTHER...BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT IN THESE MESOSCALE BANDED STRUCTURES SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THEIR SPATIAL PLACEMENT. EXPECTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE VERY DIFFICULT MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SOME MIX OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 12+ INCHES OF SNOW /ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS/ GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW SYSTEM MOTION...STG FORCING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK AND MESOSCALE STRUCTURES WILL ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMTS AND THESE WILL BE REFINED AS EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 402 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES ACRS ENTIRE AREA. CLOSE ERLY AFTN COORD WITH WFO ALY. ERLY AFTN SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC HI WRN CANADA WITH RDG ESE INTO ERN ONT. ARCTIC CDFNT MOVG SE ACRS SRN VT ATTM. DVLPG STORM SYS TX PNHNDL PER ANALYSIS AND GFS 18Z PSN. STG RDG TO N WL SERVE TO BLOCK/SLOW NORTHWARD MOVMT AND FAVOR CSTL RE-DEVELOPMENT. STG H/8 GRADIENT FM NYC-MO. H/5 JET CORE FM GRTLKS TO NEW ENG WITH JET STREAK NOTED WRN TX-ERN OK. PREFER SOLN CLOSER TO GFS...WITH OLD PRIMARY TRACKING FM OH VLY INTO ERN PA...BUT SECONDARY TAKING OVER AND TAKING A BIT W OF GFS PRBLY OVR THE OUTTER CAPE. SATL IMAGERY INDCS CLRG SKIES...AND VAD WNDS GNRLY 10-20 MPH BUT TREND IS DMNSHNG. THUS FOR TNGT WL GO MSTLY CLR AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVR AREA...WITH HI PRES RDG EXTDG ACRS NRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENG LATE TNGT INTO TUE. WL GO A FEW DGRS COLDER THAN MAV TNGT AND CLOSE TO MAV ON TUES. THEREAFTER THE FCST BCMS MORE COMPLICATED. SIGNIF WINTER STORM SHAPING UP FOR LATE TUES NGT INTO THURS. PREFER SOLN BTWN NAM AND GFS...LEANING TWD THE GFS. CURRENT THINKING IS STORM SYS REORGANIZES N CAROLINA/VA CAPES AND MOVES NE TO THE OUTTER ARM OF THE CAPE. WL STILL INCLUDE MXD PCPN SE PTN OF AREA BASED ON OLD PRIMARY STORM TRACKING INTO ERN PA WITH SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT. SNW DVLPS ACRS AREA LATE TUES NGT S TO N. CATEGORICAL SNOW WEDNESDAY...HVY AT TIMES. PCPN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES PTNS OF ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES. STORM TRACKS TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURS MRNG WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF TO SNW SHWRS W PTN OF AREA AND PDS LGT SN ERN VT OVRNGT WITH SCT SNW SHWRS ON THURS. TOTAL QPF APRS TO BE 1.5-1.75 INCHES. RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGRS OVR MAV TEMPS WED-THURS...ALTHO STILL PLENTY COLD. THUS THIS STORM SYS WL BE SIGNIF BECAUSE OF THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG. EXACT TRACK OF STORM...AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...APRS TO FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OUR AREA...ESPECLY NRN TWO THIRDS. EARLY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE STORM WOULD BE 8 TO 14 INCHES IN THE VALLEY AND 12 TO 16 INCHES IN THE MTNS. FUTURE FCST SHIFTS WL FINIALIZE THESE NUMBERS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 455 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 ...HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT NOREASTER WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING -- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED IN SOME SECTIONS... .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST 24 HRS FOLLOWING MONDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WNWLY H5 FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NRN ONTARIO SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT...ALLOWING FOR ONLY LGT NWLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS. 2-M TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH 9Z READINGS OF -26F AT KSLK AND -14F AT KMSS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SW. IT WILL LITERALLY BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. REGARDING UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WV IMAGERY AT 09Z SHOWS PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONE CROSSING SERN OKLAHOMA WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING ESEWD ACROSS NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOUD CANOPY IS ALREADY QUITE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A T-BONE TYPE FRONTAL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY. THE 00Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF FEATURES. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY ROBUST AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW NEAR THE VA CAPES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS COASTAL CYCLONE HAS THE BENEFIT OF A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND EXTREME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A COUPLED H25 JET STRUCTURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALLOWING THE LOW TO EMBARK UPON A CONTINUED 1-2MB/HR DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD BUZZARDS BAY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS NOW SHOWS THIS COASTAL TRACK AFTER BEING AN EASTWARD OUTLIER YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST WITH THE SFC LOW...WITH A 969MB MINIMUM PRESSURE OVER NERN MASSACHUSETTS AT 06Z THURSDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM DEEPENING SO QUICKLY AND FAR TO OUR SOUTH...A CLOSED 700MB CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ACROSS E-CENTRAL NEW/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MASSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ORIENTED N-S ACROSS VT/ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AIDED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW CENTER...AND A ESELY H7 FLOW OF 60-70KTS ACROSS THE CT RIVER VLY. INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH LARGE RIMING POTENTIAL OF SNOW FLAKES KEEPING SNOW RATIOS IN 10:1-15:1 RANGE ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THIS EVENT...DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MOST SECTIONS AND LOWER 20S IN SERN VT. OVERALL EVOLUTION LOOKS THIS WAY: INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF SNOWFALL BY 06Z SRN AREAS AND 10Z NRN SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING NWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PROGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT LULL IN SNOWFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE 12-16Z WEDNESDAY AS MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BY 18Z...LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SETS UP N-S ALONG THE GREEN MTNS WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT AND INTO NRN NY. AT THIS TIME...FEEL ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO BE IN BEST OMEGA FIELDS DURING HEIGHT OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/SYNOPTIC ASCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT...WIDESPREAD 1IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY...WITH AN EMBEDDED BAND VCNTY CHAMPLAIN VLY OR CENTRAL VT PRODUCING 2-4IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN S-CENTRAL VT WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS. INTENSE SFC LOW /NEAR 970MB/ GRADUALLY PULLS NNEWD ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NLY/NWLY GRADIENT FLOW CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THRUSDAY MORNING. SO...EVEN AS SNOWFALL RATES TAPER OFF BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...VSBY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING IF WINDS ARE ANY STRONGER. WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE MODEL QPF...WHICH INCLUDES THE 06Z NAM SHOWING 3.17 STORM TOTAL QPF AT KBTV. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT KBTV HAS NEVER /SINCE 1883/ RECEIVED 2 LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN A 24-HR PERIOD IN THE MONTH OF FEB /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED TOTAL QPF AROUND 2.5 IN THE KMPV VCNTY. BELIEVE ACTUAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...TO 1.25-1.75 ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...EXCEPT AROUND ST. JOHNSBURY WHERE SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE WHITE MTNS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KEEPING TOTAL QPF CLOSER TO 1 INCH. WE BELIEVE THIS IS A REASONABLE APPROACH TO TAKE TOWARD THE QPF/SNOW AMTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WE ANTICIPATE MAY REACH A TOP TEN EVENT IN BURLINGTON...AND WOULD BE OF HISTORIC SIGNIFICANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT 6-12 INCHES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...12-18 INCHES IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...12-20 INCHES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY...AND 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FA IN VERMONT. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE SNOW BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AS IS HINTED AT IN THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE QUESTION WOULD BE EXACTLY WHERE...AND THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS CAN NOT BE DETERMINED THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGH ON STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE CAPE COD AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS SYSTEM IS IN FAVORABLE COUPLED JET AT 250 MB. FORECAST DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB IS VERY STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...THUS FAVORING THE DEEPENING LOW. THE RESULTING VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE VERY STRONG AND APPEARS TO WANT TO BE LAID OUT IN AN AXIS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO POINTS NORTHEAST. WITH SUCH A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SYSTEM...FEEL HEAVY SNOW THREAT SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA. IF THERE IS ONE AREA THAT COULD SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IT WOULD BE THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. EXAMINATION OF 850 AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MAXIMA...WHICH SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW. THUS HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WILL FORECAST 16 TO 26 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...12 TO 24 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN...AND 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND SEEING THE FAVORABLE CROSS-HAIR ORIENTATION OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH TO INDICATE WE COULD SEE SOME TWO TO FOUR INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH A 10:1 OR 15:1 SNOW RATIO. WHAT SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE ZONES AND IN ANY STATEMENTS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF MEETING BLIZZARD CRITERIA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 957 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 .SYNOPSIS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 02Z SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST...AS THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN. && .SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT 02Z. SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND BECAUSE OF THIS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. ALTHOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RETURNS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...THIS IS MAINLY SNOW THAT IS ALOFT...AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL DRY AS STATED IN THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO GIVE A TIME RANGE AS TO WHEN SNOW WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 2 AM EST AND 4 AM EST...EXCEPT BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WILL ALSO RAISE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 410 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...HISTORIC NOREASTER UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT MOST SECTIONS... .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING ON STORM EVOLUTION BASED ON CONTINUED VERY CONSISTENT NWP GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z NWP SUITE ...NEW 06Z NAM...AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS...SECONDARY SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SERN VA AT 994MB. NORFOLK OBSERVED A 4MB PRESSURE FALL DURING THE PAST HR...AND MAGNITUDE OF FALLS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 2-3 HRS. WE ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSED BY IR PRESENTATION...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING /DOWN TO -65C/ JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NC JUST IN ADVANCE OF NEG TILT IN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING INTO PLACE FOR EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH COASTAL CYCLONE MOVING NE REACHING BUZZARDS BAY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY WITH AN EXPECTED MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AROUND 978MB. MEANWHILE...LEADING SURGE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF PRIMARY H7 LOW OVER WRN OHIO AT 08Z. NEARLY 90DEG OF VEERING IS NOTED IN KCXX VAD WIND PROFILE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB INDICATIVE OF GEOSTROPHIC WAA. ALSO...700MB FLOW IS AROUND 60KTS FROM THE SW PER BGM 88D VAD WIND PROFILE. VERY SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/SPEED CONVERGENCE INTO OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED AND SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 1F AT KBTV THE ONE DIFFERENCE WE ARE NOTING IN THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IS SOME BRIGHT BANDING EXTENDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0830Z. THIS IS LIKELY SLEET...AND HAVE EXPANDED SLEET AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH MODEL/S LIKELY UNDERDOING THE WARM LAYER SOMEWHAT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. WAA AXIS MAINTAINS STEADY LGT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY TROWAL AIRSTREAM AND INTENSE H8-H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BTV FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIRECT IMPACT OF COASTAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. WITH A CLOSED H8 AND H7 CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH...MASSIVE ELY WAA WITH WINDS 50-70KTS WILL ADVECT AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...WITH DEEP-LAYER OMEGA INTERSECTING DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER OPTIMIZING SNOWFALL EFFICIENCY. WE SHOULD SEE 2-3 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND NEAR ZERO VSBY...ESPECIALLY ALONG A STRONG MESOSCALE SNOWBAND THAT WILL LIKELY ORIENT FROM SSW-NNE SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OR SLIGHTLY WEST OR EAST. THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET. HAVE NOT MODIFIED SNOWFALL AMTS AT THIS POINT...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 8-16 INCHES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...16-26 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/NRN VT...AND 12-24 INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN AND SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM WHERE BEST MESOSCALE DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WE CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MODEL QPF...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW 2-3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WE HAVE NEVER HAD A 2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT STORM IN FEBRUARY AT KBTV IN A 24 HR PERIOD...AND BELIEVE 1.5-1.75IN LIQUID MAX WILL BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WE HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT GRADIENT WINDS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AS COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO OUR LATITUDE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD GUST POTENTIAL 35 MPH EAST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND EVEN SOME 40 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NE KINGDOM AS LOW TRACKS INTO ERN ME. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM MID-AFTN ONWARD...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LATER TODAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S...HAVE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER. TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED EXCEPT FOR EMERGENCY PURPOSES ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AND MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME CASES DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WE ASK OUR MEDIA AND EM PARTNERS TO EMPHASIZE THE DANGERS OF NEAR ZERO VSBY IN DEEP SNOW/BLOWING SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND CHILLS -10F TO -20F THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1109 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... MAJOR STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND NO INDICATIONS SUGGEST TO MAKE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND MOST INTENSE PART OF STORM HAS YET TO HIT THE AREA. EXPECT MOST INTENSE SNOW TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOKING AT WINDS TO BE INCREASING AND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS MAINTAINING ALL BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS MAIN PART OF THE STORM HAS YET TO IMPACT US. FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF 850 MB AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS NOW FOCUSED ON THE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR INITIALLY WITH THIS EVENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS SO STRONG THAT EVERYONE IN THIS AREA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE EVENT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS VIA AUTOMOBILE WILL BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 227 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS POISED TO REACH THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT. VAD WIND PROFILE NOW SHOWING WINDS ALOFT ALL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING POTENTIAL. WITH CONTINUED SNOWFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME SNOW RATES SHOULD INCREASE AS OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL ARE MAXIMIZED OVER THIS SAME AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. SO SHOULD START TO SEE 2-3 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL PROBABLY MENTION LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 30 INCHES OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WE HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP 8 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER. BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER...BUT THE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL KEEP NUMBERS JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FAVOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1014 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDS ACRS FA SINCE MID-AFTN HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO WND DOWN ON THE SN+ FRONT BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND SN/BLSN TO REDUCE VSBY WITH GROUND BLIZZARD CONDS AND SNOW DRIFTS ALRDY BEING RPTD AT 4-6 FEET. DEFORMATION BAND ACRS CHMPL VLY EASTWARD ACRS NRN VT WITH AN ADDTNL 2-4 INCHES PSBL BUT LCLZD 6 INCHES ALG WNW HIER ELEVATION SLOPES WITH THE TREND CONT TO DECREASE OVRNGT. ALRDY STATE OF EMERGENCIES HV BEEN DECLARED IN A FEW CTYS IN NRN NY AND FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE AND NUMEROUS HIGHWAY...ROAD CREWS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT...ROAD TRVL IS HAZARDOUS AT BEST AND FEEL BLIZZARD WRNG SHLD CONT TIL NEW PKG ERLY THU MRNG TO PREVENT A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY AS IT STL REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HWVR...SNOW HAS ABATED IN ST LWRNC VLY WITH SNOWFALL AMTS MUCH LESS THAN ELSEWHERE AND WNDS HV NOT DROPPED VSBY DOWN LIKE OTHER LOCALES...THUS HV DROPPED HVY SNOW WRNGS FOR ST LWRNC VLY. AS OF 10 PM...SNOWFALL AT KBTV 23.1 INCHES (WITH A FEW HRS TO GO) - GREATEST FEBRUARY SNOWSTORM - TIED FOR 24 HOUR DAILY MAX SNOWFALL ALL-TIME - 3RD LARGEST SNOWSTORM PLEASE SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR PAST RECORDS. LIMATE... THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE INFORMATION IS TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS TO IMPACT BURLINGTON ALONG WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL STATS FOR BURLINGTON DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FROM 1883 TO PRESENT. ***NEW DATA*** TOP FIVE MAXIMUM DAILY SNOWFALL AT BURLINGTON FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD: 1.) 23.1 JAN 14 1934 2.) 17.4 JAN 4 2003 3.) 16.9 DEC 25 1978 4.) 16.8 FEB 4 1995 5.) 15.7 MAR 3 1994 TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS AT BURLINGTON: 1.) 29.8 DEC 25-28 1969 2.) 24.7 JAN 13-14 1934 3.) 22.9 MAR 5-6 2001 4.) 22.4 MAR 13-14 1993 5.) 20.0 NOV 25 1900 6.) 19.7 JAN 25-28 1986 7.) 19.1 MAR 16-17 1937 8.) 18.8 DEC 14-15 2003 9.) 18.3 DEC 6-7 2003 10.) 17.8 JAN 3-4 2003 10.) 17.8 FEB 4-5 1995 NOTE...ONLY ONE TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS HAS EVER OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON...WITH ONLY A TOTAL OF 4 TOP 20 GREATEST SNOW STORMS OCCURRING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV (17.1 FEB 25-26 1966...15.9 FEB 15-17 1909....15.7 FEB 7-8 1983). THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT. 1.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995 2.) 13.1 FEB 25TH 1966 3.) 12.1 FEB 16TH 1958 4.) 11.2 FEB 8TH 1947 5.) 11.0 FEB 7TH 1983 THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT. 1.) 1.75 FEB 2ND 1981 2.) 1.71 FEB 7TH 1951 3.) 1.58 FEB 25TH 1915 4.) 1.34 FEB 16TH 1954 5.) 1.27 FEB 15TH 1939 THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 14TH AT BURLINGTON VERMONT IS 7.8 SET BACK IN 2000. THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 14TH IS 0.90 SET BACK IN 1937. OUR RECORDS SHOW THAT NO 24 HOUR DAILY QPF AMOUNT HAS EVER BEEN OVER 1.75 FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV. THE MAXIMUM MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 34.2 SET BACK IN 1958 AND MINIMUM AMOUNT OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 1.3 SET BACK IN 1957 FOR BTV. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 412 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL EVENT AND NOREASTER RAPIDLY ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT AT 09Z. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON YESTERDAY/S EVENT...INCLUDING AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT THE BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /25.3 INCHES/. SFC ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS NOREASTER OVER FAR DOWNEAST MAINE WITH MIN SFC PRESSURE OF AROUND 976MB. SFC WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED DOWNWARD MIXING POTENTIAL. GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MODERATELY STG ACROSS ERN 2/3RDS OF FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CAA SHOULD HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 30KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 FEET IN MOST AREAS...HAVE POSTED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY EASTWARD TO THE CT RIVER THROUGH 22Z TODAY. THIS WILL COVER IMPACT OF VERY LOW VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OPEN TERRAIN WHERE LOFTING POTENTIAL AND DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF NEWLY FALLEN SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE GREATEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO FAR NERN VT AND NRN GREEN MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL AID IN -SHSN ACTIVITY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NRN VT AND THE NRN GREEN MTNS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED DIGGING OUT FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY...AND LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NRN ZONES. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS...WE/LL MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COLDEST 2-M TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL. THIS NECESSITATES A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS NEED FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT BASED ON WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 349 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRIMARY WEATHER DURING SHORT TERM WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER PAST 36 HOURS...THOUGH WILL FEATURE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY BY LATER SAT NT AND ESP SUNDAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SQUALLS AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION YESTERDAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IN PROCESS OF TRAVERSING REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED TODAY UNDER WELL MIXED PBL...WHICH HAS LEAD TO OCCNLLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLSN AND LOW WIND CHILLS. DUE TO A GENERAL SETTLING/CRUSTING OF THE SNOWPACK...BELIEVE THREAT OF PROLONGED REDUCED VSBY CONTINUES TO LESSEN...THUS HAVE CANCELLED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS VT. NONETHELESS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCL BRIEF BURSTS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS NRN NY WITH THIS PACKAGE. SIMILAR GUSTINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY DUE TO WELL MIXED NBL. THUS WIDESPREAD SUB -20F WIND CHILL READINGS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW SITES COULD ECLIPSE THIS THRESHOLD SPORADICALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN REGARDS TO OVERALL WX PICTURE...MAIN EMPHASIS WAS TO INCREASE POPS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING FRI ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOWING PRONOUNCED WAA/WRAP-AROUND LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. COMBINATION OF WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW (290) SHOULD FAVOR NRN SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM CHITTENDEN COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY...THOUGH ALL OF THE NRN MTN REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. MEAN BNDRY LYR FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR SHSN ACTIVITY THE BROADER VALLEYS HOWEVER...AND WILL OFFER ONLY CHC POPS...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LL LAPSE RATES/LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB SOMEWHAT FROM TODAY/S READINGS...RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREA WIDE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. IT APPEARS AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 20S FRIDAY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY. SOME CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IMMEDIATE WEST SLOPE COMMUNITIES. .CLIMATE... THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE HISTORIC SNOWFALL EVENT AT BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. CLIMATE RECORDS ARE KEPT FROM 1883 TO PRESENT FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT. ***NEW DATA*** TOP 5 MONTHLY SNOW TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON: 1.) 34.3 1958 2.) 33.8 1993 3.) 31.4 1947 4.) 29.9 CURRENTLY AND 1954 5.) 29.7 2005 ***UPDATED*** TOP FIVE MAXIMUM DAILY SNOWFALL AT BURLINGTON FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD: 1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007 2.) 23.1 JAN 14 1934 3.) 17.4 JAN 4 2003 4.) 16.9 DEC 25 1978 5.) 16.8 FEB 4 1995 ***UPDATED***TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS AT BURLINGTON: 1.) 29.8 DEC 25-28 1969 2.) 25.7 FEB 14-15 2007 3.) 24.7 JAN 13-14 1934 4.) 22.9 MAR 5-6 2001 5.) 22.4 MAR 13-14 1993 6.) 20.0 NOV 25 1900 7.) 19.7 JAN 25-28 1986 8.) 19.1 MAR 16-17 1937 9.) 18.8 DEC 14-15 2003 10.) 18.3 DEC 6-7 2003 UPDATED...NOW TWO TOP TEN GREATEST SNOW STORMS HAS EVER OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BURLINGTON...WITH A TOTAL OF 5 TOP 20 GREATEST SNOW STORMS OCCURRING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT BTV. BELOW IS THE TOP 5 SNOW STORMS EVER TO OCCUR IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007 2.) 17.1 FEB 25-26 1966 3.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995 4.) 15.9 FEB 15-17 1909 5.) 15.7 FEB 7-8 1983 UPDATED...THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT. 1.) 25.3 FEB 14 2007 2.) 16.8 FEB 4TH 1995 3.) 13.1 FEB 25TH 1966 4.) 12.1 FEB 16TH 1958 5.) 11.2 FEB 8TH 1947 UPDATED...THE FOLLOWING IS TOP FIVE DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR BURLINGTON VERMONT. 1.) 1.94 FEB 14 2007 2.) 1.75 FEB 2ND 1981 3.) 1.71 FEB 7TH 1951 4.) 1.58 FEB 25TH 1915 5.) 1.34 FEB 16TH 1954 FOR MORE UPDATED INFORMATION ON DAILY RECORDS SET AT BURLINGTON SEE THE LATEST ALBRERBTV. ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 14 2007 SET AT BURLINGTON... A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF 25.3 INCHES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.8 SET IN 2000. ...RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL SET AT BURLINGTON... A RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 25.3 INCHES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD 24 HOUR RECORD OF 23.1 SET ON JANUARY 14 1934. ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION SET AT BURLINGTON... A RECORD PRECIPITATION OF 1.94 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BURLINGTON YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.90 SET IN 1937. THE MAXIMUM MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 34.2 SET BACK IN 1958 AND MINIMUM AMOUNT OF MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY IS 1.3 SET BACK IN 1957 FOR BTV. && AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 349 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRIMARY WEATHER DURING SHORT TERM WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER PAST 36 HOURS...THOUGH WILL FEATURE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY BY LATER SAT NT AND ESP SUNDAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SQUALLS AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION YESTERDAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IN PROCESS OF TRAVERSING REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED TODAY UNDER WELL MIXED PBL...WHICH HAS LEAD TO OCCNLLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLSN AND LOW WIND CHILLS. DUE TO A GENERAL SETTLING/CRUSTING OF THE SNOWPACK...BELIEVE THREAT OF PROLONGED REDUCED VSBY CONTINUES TO LESSEN...THUS HAVE CANCELLED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS VT. NONETHELESS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCL BRIEF BURSTS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS NRN NY WITH THIS PACKAGE. SIMILAR GUSTINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY DUE TO WELL MIXED NBL. THUS WIDESPREAD SUB -20F WIND CHILL READINGS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW SITES COULD ECLIPSE THIS THRESHOLD SPORADICALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN REGARDS TO OVERALL WX PICTURE...MAIN EMPHASIS WAS TO INCREASE POPS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING FRI ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOWING PRONOUNCED WAA/WRAP-AROUND LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. COMBINATION OF WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW (290) SHOULD FAVOR NRN SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM CHITTENDEN COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY...THOUGH ALL OF THE NRN MTN REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. MEAN BNDRY LYR FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR SHSN ACTIVITY THE BROADER VALLEYS HOWEVER...AND WILL OFFER ONLY CHC POPS...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LL LAPSE RATES/LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB SOMEWHAT FROM TODAY/S READINGS...RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREA WIDE.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBOX&e=200103050008 Man I love this archive

While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive 599 FXUS61 KBOX 261713 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 ...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. ...PRVS DISC PER DRAG... ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN. CONF ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST. MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY. STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z. IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA. PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX FMH TDY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN LESS. NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN REFILL THIS AFTN. QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP. GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT 3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+ AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET. CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE 100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE OF THE YEAR. LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK). .BOX...WXA MA 22-23. SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS. SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY. DRAG

I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003. I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind. What yr was it? It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001

for posterity sake

so whats the verification thus far

checks out thats VT/NH/MA borders, Bernardston def in the weird doesnt know what it wants to do zone

Same with the top of Starr unless you are skier side left and all of the National headwall at Stowe. I can think of a few times National's headwall was grippable because the snow was all natural, but it's rare

why do we never hear miller c d and e? Is It the same reason I hate the weather channel naming snowstorms? fu diaz, it's just a snowstorm

Burr and Burton?

Yup my partners kid went there and he was bussed from Harwood.

Ha nevermind I just read that's it, but it also has the tech school which covers much more of Washington Cty. Which thus makes it even more regional

What area does Spaulding cover outside of Barre and Barre City?

crazy, I think it sums up what everyone is reporting, especially that ithaca dude

My kid graduated Stowe in 2014 and they rarely closed for anything less than a foot in all those years and it had to come fast. I totally get the regional schools closing though. But I see they are closed tomorrow! Good for all the kids WOOOO!

lol buying a snow shovel??

53 yrs old and I'm still like a school kid. Do they still cancel school? I figured after the pandemic it would just be zoom school

By weds all things are equal. Got a snowy xmas look 'round here. Bout time we got some snow! I've lurked here for years, I love NNe because it's so chill, we know we will get our snow more often than not nickle and dime or synoptically. The former being the way. WE dont need no stinkin big dog like 2/14/07 (but we love it). Give us 3 here 8 there a surprise 18 and then another 2 to freshen it up. Way too many ipa's tonight my friends. Seems like it's the only time i have the balls to post about the only thing I love more than beer and that is the winter weather in northern vermont. (now posted in the right forum thread, d'oh) Seems like no matter the model we end up in a similar place if it's true. (by we I mean me pf, jspin, mreaves, and timp)