psuhoffman

I know, but I've pointed out that at times the wavelengths just expand or shorten east of the central pacific so that the pattern over the CONUS remains virtually the same. At times when there is a trough just off the west coast the wavelenghts shorten dramatically and a trough still digs into the southwest, or worse...they broaden and we end up with a full continent ridge from coast to coast lol. But what rarely seems to happen, regardless of what the central pacific trough/ridge alignment is, is for us to get a nice western US ridge, eastern US trough configuration. I am just hypothesizing why that might be...and those 2 reasons I listed above off the top of my head would be the most likely I can see. I am totally open to other suggestions I am just spitballing here.

You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare.

@Terpeast Referencing what I showed above...and the fact that has happened several times where opposite pacific longwave patterns lead to the same huge SER over the US...what are your thoughts that there is more going on here than just the PDO. I am just thinking out loud here...but is there any chance these 2 factors are also contributing... 1)systems are coming in off the pac more juiced up and amplify quicker which would tend to get them stuck in the inter-mountain west and amplify and cut off there not progress east.... 2) the extreme warmth in the Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic is contributing to the SER and the combination of these 2 is leading to a tendency for a crazy SER regardless of the PDO or pacific longwave pattern west of there.... I am NOT saying the PDO hasn't been a problem...and isn't contributing to this...but do you think these other 2 factors, which unfortunately wont be solved by a simple PDO flip, are part of the problem also?

I've pointed this out before... This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless. Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh. I hope so.

This has been our reality for 9 years... Here is the thing about that...yes the PDO is killing us, putting a perpetual ridge over the east...but look out west at our latitude...even with a crazy -PNA most of the time, they aren't cold either. At our latitude the variance across the northern hemisphere the last 9 years has been crazy unprecedented torch to at best slightly above normal temps, which for us isn't even good enough since our lowest average high temp is still in the 40's. I've witnessed this first hand...yea they have been "colder" and yes at times when a crazy trough sets up they do get cold for a bit...but I've been out west several times in the last 8 years and lower elevations were really really suffering in terms of snowfall with very warm temps between storms and during any modest ridging episodes. Just a cautionary thing to keep in mind for when the PDO flips...it hasn't exactly been cold ANYWHERE at our latitude on the whole, no matter what the longwave pattern is. This doesn't mean you can't get cold for a period, there are anomalies within that longer term avg...just saying...in general its just been warm everywhere at our latitude.

I'm trying to behave today...

It does seem that way...but I just pulled up the mean h5 pattern from the last 5 winters and only once did we actually get a strong blocking regime that lead to a trough over us for early Spring. I think we joke about it happening more than it actually does. March 20-Apr 15 the last 5 winters 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019

FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15. The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem. Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.

I think its made worse by perception bias...because winter is so much warmer than "normal" lately...I think there is just this expectation it will get warmer as we head into early spring...but it doesn't necessarily work that way since the water which is a big part of why its so warm in winter is cooling by then due to the lag effect in water temps. So often when we get a very warm Feb-mid March...late March and early April might not really end up much warmer and that "feels wrong".

That’s more plausible. Thanks for translating.

Visiting family

How does it rotate when it’s flat?

I’ll be in Florida lol

people are going to get up tomorrow and see 75 new posts and think there is a blizzard coming then read this...lol

I’m going to try this next time I get pulled over. “Officer, why are you using how fast I’m driving today, a rolling 10 day average would be better”. This is semantics. You’re measuring snow trends. I’m comparing specific years. Those are different things. You’re saying this method is better. Ok. That’s your opinion. But the years I picked aren’t arbitrary.

I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years. But that’s opinion. The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said.

Without being home to check I think that’s like a quarter inch more than the 10 years from 1948-1957.

1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go.

What do you have as the worst 10 year period?

Two things can be true.

This. I wouldn’t be talking about THIS depressing BS if we had anything optimistic at all to discuss.

That’s literally how I felt reading that!

10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad.

@brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about... For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years. The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5". This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period! That is crazy ridiculous. But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods. So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick. For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!... think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER. And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on. The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this. We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate. So no...I do think we have enough data to say.

The sample size is low if you parse this last 8 years into sub groups. But if you just take the whole period…we’re getting close to the ridiculous stage when you compare this to every previous low snowfall period. And if we don’t get some HUGE winters SOON it’s about to escalate to astronomical proportions because all the previous 8 year periods even close to this on snow were bookended by epic high snowfall periods.