psuhoffman

What was your methodology?

Yep. It's too hard to hit every micro climate nuance. That map notvirga linked does a good job showing the various elevation based maxes and minimums. Like I said it's just a little too expansive with the maximums. The ridges aren't quite as broad as the map suggests but you get the idea then can use a topographic map to figure it out. General rule though is get northwest of the fall line and your snowfall bumps up about 4-5" immediately. Avoid the valleys for the downslope precip shadow. Above 700 feet and your climate will resemble central NJ more then D.C. Above 1000 feet and your climate will resemble northern NJ. Get above 1500 and your climate will resemble CT. Just a "general idea" of central MD climo from my perspective.

That's the one I was going to post actually, only an older version. That isn't his map, it was produced by lwx like 15-20 years ago and he edited it a little bit. One warning, the map is a little too liberal with the higher totals areas. If you pull up an elevation map you can tell how the maximum areas follow the ridges but since it's hard to estimate exactly that map was a little too expansive. One such place is northwest Carroll County where elevations go down but that map still has them in the 35+ zone which is really confined to the higher elevations in northeast Carroll County. Like I said its not perfect but its the best I have seen for getting a general idea.

Taneytown does much better then Baltimore but it is west of Parrs Ridge and typically gets less snow then places just east of there like Westminster and Manchester. It's not quite as bad as Frederick in terms of snowshadow effect. I am going to attach a map in my next post (for some reason it's not wanting to attach to this post) with a snowfall average for the area. It's an old map and not perfect but its the best at showing where the max and min locations are. If you are looking for the best locations, along parrs ridge in eastern Carroll County or northwest Baltimore county is the best spot that is within reasonable commutable distance to baltimore. Areas around Westminster, Manchester, Hampstead. If you want something further west the area along the catoctin mountain does even better. Some of the elevations in there are above 1500 feet. But that area is a hike to Baltimore, even worse then my commute. The towns of Sabillasville (1100 ft) and Highfield-Cascade (1300 ft) are in that area...but the best spots that get blasted are the ridges around those towns. Also along route 77 east of Smithburg there are some communities and neighborhoods above 1500 feet. You just have to pull up a topographic map and find them. But elevation is everything. Obviously getting away from the coast and further north you will do better then Baltimore but honestly the lower elevations even out there do not to THAT much better. But you go up in elevation and get above 1000 feet and suddenly its like a whole other climate zone and a winter wonderland. There are some good topographic map websites like topozone where you can pull up elevation maps of the area and find neighborhoods higher up. There is a trade off though. Obviously the easiest commute is to find places along the major routes, 15 and 70, but those highways also tend to follow the valleys and are in snowfall minimums. The larger towns like Thurmont, Frederick, and Hagerstown are also all in valleys. So I know its a trade off, not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere just to get more snow. But I don't want you to be disappointed if you move somewhere up there in a valley and find that you really only get 5" more a year then Baltimore and places around you with elevation get significantly more.

Bad luck. Lots of coastal storms. Some turned to rain in DC. Some stayed east. Some miller b jumpers. It was a great winter just to our northeast. Up here it was pretty good too. D.C. Just got unlucky imo. It can happen.

Given the height pattern all of these would be snow threats December to March. It's just too early.

I can confirm everything he just said.

There does seem to be a correlation to east based nina's (warmer water in the central Pacific) being skewed colder. Last year was an example. But we still struggle to get good snowfall here because of the limited southern stream. But it does seem that having the best tropical forcing located in the central Pacific is conducive to the mjo being in favorable phases for eastern Conus troughs.

Some of our best and regular posters are republicans and they are doing fine and I don't detect any bullying. And I don't care about their politics on here. Fact is no one even knows. Now we have had some idiots spew stupid from time to time and get ripped for it. Like the dude who decided that calling government workers lazy and useless on a D.C. centric forum would go over well. But that's not because they were republican. That was just stupid and classless.

I am not sure a "slightly below average" January would really feel like a pullback or even be void of snow. We are so used to torches in January a "normal" one might feel arctic.

I like your methodology

I can understand the frustration of the moderators and admins here. IMO they try very hard to balance the conflicting needs/desires of the members. Some want more moderation, others want an anarchy. Some want things organized one way and others another. Some people like to be aggressive in debate and others can't take criticism. They are constantly trying to put out fires and find the best way to accommodate when it's possible. I don't know what the exact cause of Mitch's departure was but I am not sure the powers that be can possibly make this perfect for everyone and they do try very hard so I can see why your earlier post would ruffle some feathers.

lol some iffy analysis of the weeklies going around. They were pretty ambiguous at range and not at all hostile. Sure could have been better but I saw nothing that made me overly concerned.

I will miss the "persistence vs chaos" debates we used to have. I am kind of torn on this issue in general. I have no idea exactly what precipitated Mitch's self exile so this is just an in general thing regarding the phenomenon of some good posters leaving...so please don't apply this in any way to Mitch. Yes there is some incredibly annoying trolling going on right now across the board. But good discussion can still happen if people can ignore it and get past it. And while I don't hold it against anyone for deciding to leave...its their free time after all, some in the past have left of threatened to leave over some pretty thin skinned insignificant things. Some of the trolling and such is annoying but some have also become annoyed simply when people disagree and argue with them. That is part of a discussion board. Leaving because people disagree with you is kind of childish imo. So some people have left because its become annoying with the bickering and constant complaining/trolling and that I can understand (although i would rather stick it out) but others have left just because they can't seem to handle having people disagree with them publicly and that has no place on a discussion forum. Everyone agreeing would be useless. Again this has NOTHING to do with Mitch. I will miss him and have no idea what the reason for his departure was.

I ran the numbers on anomalous early snow a few years ago. It seemed there wasn't much correlation between October cold or snow in the interior (mountains or upstate PA for instance) but there was a bad outcome for winter snowfall in years where accumulating snow occurred into the urban corridor in October. 2011 fitting that as some snow accumulated into the far western parts of the area. But that is such a small sample size that it's hard to prescribe much significance to it. With only a few examples it could just be coincidence.

There was a snow event in December then a long dead period until February. But several snows and 2 KU storms after. One mid February and one mid march.

I wish you would fight against posting bat sh!t crazy nonsense all the time.

I propose a solution...

Thanks that's the one.

Do you have the link to finding those past sst maps? I can't find it for some reason. Used to have it saved. Thanks

The long range guidance all lining up right now in a similar way (and a way that's supported by some analogs) has to be increasing optimism.

Great post as usual. Maybe because we are coming out of a 2 year nina some are projecting what is true of a Nina into our winter patterns in general. During a Nina it's true we need a lot to line up and it feels we're always fighting to push the boulder up the mountain to get snow. But that's because ninas also tend to be absent a robust southern stream. My research last year confirmed that during a Nina it's almost a prerequisite to get some major help from the ao/nao to get snow. But that's not as true in all other winters. If we look at enso neutral or positive years the correlation between snow and the nao is still there but it's not as pronounced. We can and have and will again luck our way to snow in imperfect patterns but usually it involves moisture coming at us from the SW as you said. Definitely agree on chaos. Some years the cards are definitely stacked for or against us but we can still get lucky a couple times in a crappy pattern year and get unlucky in a year where things could have ended better. But for some reason that seeks to divide the forum and start a fight with the "persistence" crew. To me both can be true. Yes there is persistence to patterns and being in a bad base state makes snow less likely. Saying there is chaos isn't denying that. But patterns also change or flukes can happen. Both factor into our fate.

I think we are generally on the same page. But I could see this winter end up a bit below normal on temps. Nothing frigid. Not talking one of our truly cold winters. But depending on what climo you use, if we take recent climo it's not hard to get slightly below normal temps around D.C. And even slightly above would seem cold given recent history. I doubt we get any prolonged arctic outbreaks this year but at the same time I don't think we get ant prolonged torches like we've had in recent years either. If we get overall near to slightly above normal temps most of the winter but throw in a few cold weeks due to snowcover and the overall mean could end up slightly below

Ninos are usually money up here. This is true.

Keep talking, I'm listening...