psuhoffman

There really doesn't seem to be much interest. Very few people have replied or messaged me and the few who did seem to have different ideal dates so there was barely any group where any one day would work. I understand people are busy, I know you have been busy with important things, so I didn't want to push it and figured I would just let it go unless people started showing interest again. Perhaps this isn't the best time of year after all. There seems to be a lot going on. If we aren't able to organize a gathering now I am open to trying again next Spring/Summer. That didn't work this year for me due to my daughter being born.

I rode this in your honor to save gas but from the smell I doubt it reduced emissions much.

I picture you more like

Half of my pool was out week one with the New Orleans Tampa game.

Can we start with less of you?

My money is on NO... because he is one of those conceited "I told you so/I know better then EVERYONE" people who thinks his mission is life is to annoy the crap out of all of us until we see things his way. Never mind the fact that many of us here agree that warming is a problem or the fact that whining about it on here will do absolutely NOTHING productive about it... that won't stop him because above all else he lacks any semblance of perspective. Can we just have a mod tag this to the end all all of his posts!!!

The climate models are garbage at this range. They flip month to month. They are based on predictions on top of predictions. Guesses at the myriad of factors that influence the pattern. We know darn well we can't get anything past 10 days accurately even at the general pattern level so worrying about several months away is silly. Don't confuse my post for being a tenman type shot at models. They are valuable in other ways and the effort at seasonal is noble and hopefully someday will yield results but we aren't there yet. With educated guesses at major drivers like enso we can use analogs to get "some" idea what the winter might be like. Sometimes when things line up all one way it's easier to say. Nina gonna suck for instance. But most times it's murky at best.

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not.

Now you've done it. We will have threat after threat and be under numerous warnings and they will all bust into 33/rain.

Come on...don't we realize it's always about them!

I want it to stall over D.C. as a category 10 that has a 500 mile wide eyewall with a pressure so low that people's heads explode and 10,000 mph winds that suck everything into the stratosphere where any remaining survivors can suffocate. At least then we wouldn't have to suffer through this BS anymore.

Give me a dart. I'll take a shot at you...wait it. I meant it. Oops

I'm gonna go with no on this one.

We need Carbondale dude to come explain climo to us again!!!

Don't question it...he knows!!!

You both have a lot in common then.

I am also free the first two Saturdays in November but it can start to be chilly up here by then. That's not necessarily a problem. We could move inside if necessary but I was trying to find a best possible date.

So due to family obligations and work (daughters baptism, sons birthday, debate tournaments) I am only free September 22 and October 13th. I would like to do something even if it's a small gathering but have to get an idea if there is any interest.

I would like to host another BBQ for anyone interested. When we last discussed this a couple months ago most thought fall would be better. I am free the first two Saturdays in October, the 6th and 13th. I know I am a bit of a hike for some and I understand if anyone can't make it but there is plenty of room here and we can move inside if the weather doesn't cooperate. So who would be interested and which Saturday would work best? ETA: a family function has been moved and I'm not free the 6th but am available September 22.

I remember those years very differently. 95 just sucked. If not for the one storm in Feb it would have been an all time awful season. I think the pattern just was a no go most of the year. I don't remember many threats. 2007 I wouldn't mind rolling the dice with a similar hand again. It started a mess. And it took a while to recover but then we had a good pattern in Feb and March and just missed 2 epic storms but the majority of their impact ended up just northwest of us. Get that seasonal setup again without the awful raging positive nao start and more luck and it might work.

Over the long term it seems we can expect 2-3 big snow years a decade. Meaning much above normal. Most of the rest tend to be a mix between a bit below mean years and real crap years. But yea the 60s was a major exception to that. But in the 50 years since it's been a fairly steady thing. Of course patterns can change. And every year is its own entity just as every storm is so just because we have technically had 3 good years this decade does not mean we can't have another now. Probabilities don't work that way. We could go on a run then have a decade that's the opposite of the 60s with almost no great seasons. Plus the weather doesn't care when a decade ends and begins. It's just random. I do think climo probabilities and history are important for setting expectations but records are made to be broken and the unpredictability and threat of an unprecedented event is part of the thrill of this.

I see nothing that looks bad. Att all the key players are either ambiguous or in a positive state for a good winter. That guarantees nothing. We know we typically only get 2-3 very snowy winters a decade and we can get unlucky even in a year where the pattern is good...but right now we are "in the game" and that is all we can ask for heading into fall.

Another option...

Guys guys guys....come on now the solution is simple.

You must be so much fun at parties.