psuhoffman

Actually we want a west based nino. The weak to moderate part might be redundant as there haven't been any recorded west based or modoki super ninos. It seams those are inherently weaker. We don't know what a strong west based nino would do. Maybe DC would get 100" of snow. Lol. Fact is no matter what enso state we are in for our area we want the warmer sst anomalies to be in the central equatorial pacific with cooler anomalies to the east closer to South America. That's because this places the tropical forcing in a favorable location to favor troughing in the eastern Conus. Even if it's a Nina we do "better" if it's an east based one with warmer waters in the central pacific then of it's a west based Nina on average. Obviously the impacts are greater if the waters are even warmer so it's better in a nino. That's why my joke about 100" in a west based super nino was only half joking. As for what else we need... there are so many factors that play a small part in the outcome. Qbo. Mjo. Atlantic sst. Pdo and pna. Epo. Solar. High latitude blocking. And they all play off each other so they aren't operating in a vacuum. But if I had to pick one thing to go our way and say the hell with the rest I'll take my chances it's blocking. Get some blocking then hope we time it up with a juiced up wave. That's our easiest win scenario here. Blocking has saved some years where not much has gone right otherwise. And plenty of years have had lots of factors look good but blocking never developed and the winter was a fail. Even that's not a sure thing though. We have had some great blocking patterns go to waste also. And we have had years with no blocking work out. And how the blocking evolved matters. Some focus on the nao index but some of our best storms came from blocks that weren't classic nao. 2016 was more of a Karo block. You just have to get a feel for how the wave physics of the jet work and be familiar historically with what works and what doesn't in our area. As for your specific concerns regarding nino...I'm less worried att because I don't want a strong nino. Midokis are typically weak and the sample size is too small to rule one out based on the limited data given in that article. And even if it remains a neutral having warmer waters in the central PAC is what we want. It's not a disaster either way. It's worth noting the trends and it wasn't an article that I would put in the good news column but I'm not jumping over it either. Seasonal forecasters don't like to admit the variance of this. It's not a good selling point to tell clients that at best we can give you some probabilities a bit better then random chance. I don't begrudge them for that. But think of all these factors like dice. Each one that lines up favorable gives you another roll. So stacking more of them in our favor increases our chances of winning. But we could still roll a 1 on them all! Or we could only have one roll and pull off a 6. All we can root for is to pull off a decent pattern then hope for the best.

How did he weight low planetary energies?

I'm pretty sure there will be winter. Cold and snow is more iffy but I'm fairly confident winter will happen.

I dunno. I sense low energies in the hemispheric convergence regions.

Yea I think I lost some pretty significant patches and I doubt they are coming back. There might be some growth still covered under the dead grass though so I'll wait another week before calling TOD. Might have to do some significant seeding this fall. The garden is doing great though. But no way I could water a 2.5 acre lawn. My son picked some zucchini yesterday.

It was raining so hard yesterday the pool was overflowing even though I had the filter valve open to drain it.

That's ok it can be deducted from my "lobster entrance fee"

These are not the lobsters you're looking for

Just use the force to convince them you already paid.

Definitely and I really hope you're able too. It seemed the majority wanted to do it in the fall. With the exception of a couple saturdays for debate (unfortunately the schedule isn't out yet) I am available. So we just have to figure out when works best for most.

Don't be a stranger!!!

Things look good right now. I'm cautiously optimistic. But it's way too soon to feel excited. If things still look good come October into November I'll get more interested. I thought I would throw out some possibly relevant D.C. snowfall climo data regarding the recent snow drought and our prospects ahead. This is not meant to start an argument and is in no way meant to antagonize anyone. Everyone is entitled to feel any way they want about the weather. But I feel like the expectations might not be in line with our reality. The winters of 2016-17 & 2017-18 produced a measly 3.4" and 7.8" for a 2 year average of 5.6". They sucked. But it was not in any way an unusual 2 year period. Going back 21 years we have had 4 other such periods now that we're similar or worse. 1996-97 & 1997-98 3.4" avg 2000-01 & 2001-02. 5.3" avg 2007-08 & 2008-09. 6.2" avg 2011-12 @ 2012-13. 2.6" avg So we have had 5 periods in 20 years where we received significantly below average snowfall in back to back years And they have occurred at fairly regular intervals. 2 years, 5 years, 2 years, and 3 years apart So we typically have such a period every 2-5 years and after 3 straight above average years 2014-16 we were very much due. Good news is that following 3 previous periods we had a historically great winter. 2003, 2010, 2014. So the cyclical trends might be in our favor. But if we do score some good winters ahead (And I think we will) keep in mind that another 2 year suck fest is highly likely in only a few more years and it's not unusual or a sign the snow gods have forsaken us...it's just our climo.

I have a feeling it's likely to bring several significant snowfalls from juiced up miller a gulf systems to the majority of our area. The only exception would be the far eastern areas of this forum. If I lived in Delaware and southern NJ I would be depressed. I think those storms will likely be mostly rain there. So the few people that live there will be disappointed. But for most of this forum it will be a good winter.

Shame it's summer so you can't give us a school closing status update.

Zucchini, snap peas, and raspberries are doing well this year

I don't disagree with the east based point but I don't think that's been missed at all. We have had several posts pointing out how we are rooting for a modoki event. Those are almost always good. East based weak to moderate ninos can go either way. Some are duds. Some have been good. But west based is by far better. Right now the jury is still out. There are some predictions of a west based event. But we won't know for sure how this evolves until the fall.

I don't want to dredge up old business, just discussing, but that's part of Nina climo too and it's been pointed out before. I can't find it att but there was a Nina snowfall wrt climo map that shows the greatest negative departure is centered right over D.C. with higher probabilities of better snow wrt mean all around us. I can remember several ninas like that in my lifetime. So I guess that didn't shock me or phase me either. It makes sense too. Typical Nina pattern. Fast northern stream. Weak Stj. So northern stream systems race along and have trouble digging or phasing so they stay north with their main impact. Southern stream systems can impact to our south but get suppressed by the northern stream. And if something does phase its too late and hits east of us. Mountains eat the clippers from the west. It's logical. So I don't act surprised when it happens.

I guess it depends what expectations were and what evidence each person was looking at. I know both of the last two years by mid summer I was fairly pessimistic. After some teases in the spring the sst patterns had begun to degrade by now and signs of a Nina to some degree was showing imo. By early fall most were down on the prospects of a good winter and I know around September or October most in the winter thread were saying we had to hope to get lucky. I posted some analogs that were fairly ugly around then too. There was a brief moment of optimism when the AO looked like it might tank late November but when that turned out to be transient I know myself and bob both reverted to pessimism. I just don't like to dwell on it and make it worse so when things look bad I expect it to suck and then hope for the best. There were some sources that were using some different metrics to predict a cold snowier winter so it's fair to say there were other perspectives. I just know that overall ninas suck here 80% of the time so I don't set myself up for disappointment expecting a fluke. Hope for it but don't expect it. Plus some sources (JB) I've learned to just disregard as biased. But depending on what people were paying attention too I guess others might have been more optimistic and that maybe led to their dispair. eta: one thing last winter really drove home was the importance of the nao to snow in a Nina. Going back through every post 1950 Nina there was only one 4" snow event without a -nao and other then that EVERY snowfall greater then 3" had some blocking help. Last year we finally got one good snowfall when there was blocking. The numbers are overwhelming. If we have a Nina unless we get nao help it's not going to snow.

It was bad but the signs it was likely going to be bad were there at this point both years. I guess my "issue" with all the wailing the last 2 years was that we knew going in given the sst patterns that it was unlikely to be a good winter and snow would be scarce. But people were so whiny about it they practically ruined what snow we did get for themselves. When it's a Nina I just set my bar at "it's gonna SUCK" and then am happy with whatever scraps we get. I reserve my total meltdowns for years like 2002 when we had high expectations and then got virtually nothing. People expecting some big miller a snowbomb in a Nina were unrealistic and annoying when it didn't happen. There are ways this could go wrong. We are far from me getting excited yet. But things look way better now then leading into the last few winters when we were staring at a super Nino and 2 ninas at this point. I'll take the look now and roll with it over those anyday.

It can easily go wrong. Either the sst pattern shifts or we just get unlucky. Not every good pattern necessarily produces. But I would much rather be where we are now then where we were att the last few years.

You're welcome. As for deer my wife knows a trick using Irish spring soap. Seems the deer don't like the smell. She puts it up at the corners and they have not been a problem.

Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds.

Never too early to dream.

So there is no exact answer because the type of soil, temperature, sun angle and strength and grass type impacts this. But MOST of the time a lawn can go almost a month without water. But it can range from 3-5 weeks. My lawn is showing signs of trouble in spots but I have almost 3 acres and I just can't do anything about it. I'll overseed or reseed in the fall or spring if necessary. I might try to water this week if no rain comes right around my porch and pool in the typically used areas but the rest is on its own. If you have a more manageable sized lawn I would recommend giving it a deep water or two so it survives if we don't get rain soon.

More recent pic...I need to catch up on weeding but have a 2 month old and I've been working long hours helping run a summer learning program.