psuhoffman

So how’s it going…

I’m actually a sociologist when I’m not pretending to be a meteorologist. Don’t worry H2O I just came by to send a few last PMs. I’ll be out of your hair soon.

It wasn’t a personal attack. I am attacking the policy.

Anyone that wants to find me for now I’m going to start updated my old Facebook weather page again here https://www.facebook.com/share/153XsShetw/?mibextid=wwXIfr I also am on twitter @psuhoffman This isn’t some well thought out plan. It’s just something I came to last night. I don’t know if I’ll reconsider eventually but for now this is where I am. I vehemently disagree with the contention that “this isn’t the place”. No this isn’t the only place. But it’s a place and that makes it the right place. There is a concerted effort to undo a lot of the progress our society has made over the last 100 years and that effort is not just political it’s cultural. And that fight is happening everywhere and yes even a weather board can’t pretend it’s not going to be part of it. Even if that part is to simply decide not to push back. Not to resist and try to impede this movement. Lastly this policy is harmful because this movement to undo much of our society has been masterful at manipulating narrative. It’s happening on this board. I had to wade through a page “thermometers weren’t accurate” BS last month as of we don’t know what that was about. Then when people started to push back the “no politics” comes out and everything gets deleted. A sports discussion starts having complaints about woke athletes or canadiens booing us then the retorts are “politics”. They aren’t that subtle about injecting their narrative into the discussions knowing that they are protected from being directly called to the mat for utterly indefensible positions by the fact they can shut it down at any moment with “no politics”. Theyve made everything politics. Healthcare, vaccines, climate, sports, religions, economics, math for F sake…everything they won’t want to be challenged on is “political” now. by not engaging you are playing into exactly what this movement wants. They want space to normalize their unacceptable and in many cases illogical or worse openly bigoted views. They want to make it acceptable to say things that should be shamed. We play into their hands when we allow that. When we don’t shame them. When we don’t push back and say “this is not ok, not here not anywhere” Not in this society! They’re winning the war for this nations soul because way too many people aren’t willing to fight for it. That is where I am right now. Again this wasn’t some long thought out thing. It came to me last night when people were sharing such personal feelings of pain and sadness and it got shut down by the same old “no politics”. That’s exactly what they want. To cover up all the pain they cause. To silence the dissent to what they’re doing. They shouldn’t be immune from it anywhere not even a weather forum. They want to F around they should have to find out. Anywhere and everywhere. There shouldn’t be anywhere that “isn’t the right place” to let these fuck wads who are actively trying to tear our society apart know! If that means I can’t be a part of this community anymore I understand. I hold no ill feelings towards the mods who are in a tough spot. But I have to do what my conscious says is right. I hope to see some of you on Facebook or twitter for now. I’ll try to post more often and get it active again.

Nope it’s time to take sides. It’s too important. And of you’re not willing to be part of the solution you’re part of the problem. Ban me because I won’t stop. I can’t be silent anymore.

Sorry I have to do what I feel is right

I think around March 6-10th might be our best but final window. As the pacific pattern retrogrades there will be a brief window when there is still antecedent cold left and as a trough builds off the west coast it could favor an amplification in the east. After that the ridge in the WPO will cause some SER and in March any is too much. I'm not convinced its a long term pattern change and we go warm and stay warm but we probably don't have time for another recycle. It might turn colder again towards March 20 but by then we would need a once in 30 year type anomaly to get any snow of significance in the area, even up here. I probably won't be able to post much longer...so if this is it...its been fun. Wish I could have gone out with a win!

That seems bad to me. When I was there over 20 years ago “normal” was just under 50”. Over the last 20 years it looks like they haven’t had anymore snow than me here.

Yall don’t understand why NWS issued the advisory. This storm deserved to be an official bust, but it fell apart outside 100 hours so they had to act so that it could qualify.

Pretty bad, about the same as mind wrt climo but they’re in a valley so they’ve had even less of those nice little upslope enhanced 4-6” marginal events.

Must make it hard to aim

NE MD pummeled

I am almost sure I am going to see plenty of more snow.... because I'll be in Vermont 4 of the next 6 weekends

Could maybe... but a colder airmass will also require a more amplified wave to get to our latitude also, think back to the GFS runs the other day with a colder press from the TPV and a stronger wave giving us 12" lol. A weaker wave in that paradigm would slide to our south because the boundary is further south and a weak wave wont press the boundary north. What we want...is to get the thermal boundary south of us....down to like NC border...then have a strong wave as the boundary lifts back north.

De-amp wont work though...yea it might get the storm under us but we have a crappy antecedent airmass...the only path to snow is a bomb really. We need a sub 990 low at our latitude probably for this to work...which is another way of saying its probably not going to work...but the win would be the GGEM but have it bomb out a little faster/further south. I am not as worried about suppressed with this wave, there is no mechanism to suppress it other than if the wave just washes out and ends up really weak but then who cares its not a snow for anyone.

it's all rain.... it does go nuculear off NJ and give NYC a blizzard though so yay for them

GGEM has a perfect track rainstorm!

It's really just a progressive but amplifying wave along the boundary. It doesn't develop late or jump us..its just too far north of a track as is. If you adjusted that track south a bit we would get a decent snowstorm from it. If the boundary is cold enough I should say.

no the surface adjusted to the H5, but it did so in the opposite way than I expected.

Yea... that's probably why it doesn't look THAT much worse even if you go back to the 1800s...because you started the comp at a relatively snowy point of the cycles. The more troubling thing to me would be if you use the handful of sites we have that do have reliable data back into the 1800s, we now have 4 "snowy" cycles to evaluate and the max snow anomaly seems to be shifting north with each one. If you go back to the snow max in the late 1800s the greatest positive snow anomalies were even centered south of us with several notable major southern snow events. The 1960's one was centered right over us with DC to NYC being the max positive snow anomaly for the period...but the last snowy cycle from 2001-2015 the anomaly was centered from NYC to Boston! At what point if this continues are the positive snowy periods not as snowy? Yes the last snowy cycle was a lot better than the last 8 years but it wasn't nearly as snowy for DC and Baltitmore as the previous 3 snowy cycles were.

Depends where you start the regression...if we go all the way back to the 1800s we've lose a little over 20% in Baltimore. That number changes if you start picking different arbitrary points in time to compare. You can even make it look like we've not lost very much if you intentionally start the comparison at the nadir of a cyclical warm snow drought period.

So my analog identification didn't fail...my imagination did. During my crusade to show that "not a single remotely similar setup to this produced a significant snowstorm for Richmond or the Delmarva I failed to entertain the possibility that guidance was still correcting south and it would end up a VA Tidewater and Eastern NC snowstorm. The analogs DID fit several of VA Beach and the Outer Banks biggest snows. This storm would not have been identified in my efforts to find a comp because at that time every model was showing a big snowstorm for Richmond to S NJ so I looked at every 8" snow at Richmond and Salisbury...but this ended up well below that level for those locations. Had I pulled up 8" snows for VA beach and Elizabeth City NC I would have found very good comps and I immediately did as soon as I looked at that set. Analogs did win out over models...just in the opposite direction from what I had thought! The premise being a strong upper level feature crossing through the Midwest, Ohio and PA is not going to produce a major snowstorm for central VA and the Delmarva. There are two possible outcomes with that track of a strong ULL...either it causes a phased storm which will end up north...and likely we would be on the southern edge of heavy snow with such a storm and the max would be NW of us.... or its going to not phase and the ULL will act as a suppressive feature and whatever wave there is will track way way south of us. I was not open to the idea it would end up as suppressed as it did at the time so I failed to see the correct outcome.

I have a good feeling about 0z tonight

I don't see any difference in the pattern from yesterday honestly. We can now see a day further and you seem focused on what comes "next" after the cold period. But yesterday at the very end of ensembles they were already building a ridge west of alaska as the pacific jet retracts and the MJO probably starts to get more hostile by then. Today we just see a day further into that process. But if you pick a steady date like March 1 or March 5 things look pretty much the same now as they did 24 hours ago. You are focused on the changes in the pac that happen around March 5-8 which will be the linkely end to cold for us by around March 10-15 which we already knew.

Bad people often like to act strong but I would contend they are not always actually strong. Good people often are reserved which is not always weakness. But this is a side topic to my original point.