psuhoffman

@Ji new year. Read the shirt!

I told you in December last year winter was likely going to be an epic fail. I said I would keep tracking like I always do just in case we got lucky and I was wrong but when I got that fluke little wave in early January I told myself it might be the only snow I saw all year and I made sure to enjoy it. And it was! But I was content. I resigned myself to it early. This year my snowblower is gassed and tuned up (already used it once) and if we don’t get at least one more really good storm I will be very disappointed. My bar isn’t as high as yours but I do think we snow a decent amount this winter.

Fear is the path to the dark side

I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride.

Normally with the gfs I agree. But for some reason the GFS has been cutting storms into the block in the long range while other guidance is more suppressed.

I noticed that in his post too! The -5 AO though...how long we been waiting to see that?

For once he is late to the hype party. And not totally wrong. The danger in those analogs is there were other examples of that pattern that didn’t max out to that degree. It’s always dangerous to use the most extreme example of a pattern to set the bar.

Ugh I’m sorry. Any chance you can take a road trip home sometime as we get out back to back to back HECS?

@MillvilleWx how’s your snow looking???

I didn’t mean it that way. We have the look I’m describing day 10-20 on guidance. After that it retrogrades the pac pattern a bit. I’m saying I prefer the look day 10-20 over 20-30...and it’s still good just not AS good. And it might be wrong as long range has been going that way falsely for a month now.

@CAPE I’m starting to think that central pac Nina look the Uber long range guidance wants to go to around week 4-5 is just a model figment anyways. It’s been doing that since November weeks 4-5 and Keeps pushing it back. It’s forever stuck at 4 weeks away. Imo it’s the same phenomenon as in 2019 when the NWP continuously wanted to morph the pattern to a canonical modoki nino look as it was losing the forcing signal for whatever was running interference and was relying too heavily on enso at range. It’s been doing it this year (only the opposite way) and I am getting confident it’s not real. And even if it is we get 2 weeks of damn good before that. The good news is no guidance even hints at the NAM state flipping positive.

I would prefer that N pac trough tucked in closer to AK to get more ridge into the southwest but I’m being really picky. But that look there “could” be a miller B pattern. Please don’t think I’m saying it’s not good just a matter of good v very good here.

Why not the pattern matches 2010 when we did get 4 significant snows in 12 days. Obviously that was a lucky maxing of potential but it’s not impossible.

@CAPE I know it gets super extra weenie at the end but this is only 8 days away and we would have killed for this look at any point the past few years. This has been incredibly consistent and now it’s moving into the “it’s really happening” range. That collapse of the TPV in December plus the way two attempts to reconsolidate the TPV near Greenland were immediately deflected along with the persistent N Atlantic Ridge had me more confident then normal in the fantasy land block evolution but it’s still reinsuring to see it moving into the medium range now.

Build the pattern and the clown snow maps will come

And as i look out big fluffy flakes are falling. What is happening lol

You can’t post stuff like that...this is a family friendly forum!

That got real quick

This is starting to look as close as you can get on a long range ensemble to our big snow look..

I like the long range 12z GEFS even more. Better ridge axis out west. Lower heights in the Atlantic. It’s getting even closer to “THE” look

Yea all I’m taking away meaningful so far is the Jan 7-15 period is trending colder across guidance. Cold enough? We will see.

There is some similarities but some key differences. the pac pulls back way more then that on all guidance. Actually it pulls back too much on some long range guidance and the western ridge gets a bit too far west if anything. That block is centered too far SW with a trough over Greenland. The look across Europe and North Atlantic is not similar at all. Overall that doesn’t look as much like what the long range guidance is spitting our right now as some other years Imo.

Lol gfs gets a storm trapped off the mid Atlantic for 48 hours and finally cools the column enough to give @Ji his digital snow.

That’s the plan and USUALLY how this pattern progresses. Not always. Always risk. Btw not shocked the GFS folded to everything else wrt losing the cutters into the block idea. Also not shocked we will still have temp issues though. The para GFS seems to be crushing it compared to the old op version. The new fv3 system really is a huge upgrade and ncep just needed time to fine tune it. Maybe over time they may close the gap with the ECMWF.