psuhoffman

Is this the after meds Ji?

It snows some from a storm that has a primary get to Minnesota with no true cold in front. That’s impressive. But a block isn’t a magic cure all. It can only work with the airmass under it and the upstream flow has an effect. In this case both those other factors are wrong. There is a huge trough out west and no cold in the east so up pops a huge SE ridge. Plus the block is just getting into prime position. This is why I after that wave would be better. Cold should bleed east more once there actually is cold in N America again and the block will grow in influence as it retrogrades.

With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south. I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either.

It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8.

We have a -AO. We have an east based -NAO ridge before that. The Rex block doesn’t form and retrograde to a spot that can offset the pacific until day 7

Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts.

Hope it’s not too presumptuous of me but bringing this over from the old thread...

Teenagers close enough I don’t mind engaging with him. In case you haven’t noticed ignoring him doesn’t work. He posted like 15 times while I was teaching a class today and no one said squat to him. After I engaged with him the nonsense posts calmed down...for a while at least until he gets triggered by the next bad run.

I was a meteorology major at PSU for 3 years. But in the end I dropped the meteorology in favor of sociology and later decided to go into teaching and coaching in the inner city. I did get a good foundation from my classes at PSU. I had a class with Jon Neese who was later on TWC. I think I used to annoy the crap out of him in the weather station. But honestly I learned 90% from experience and doing my own research and reading. I’m the weirdo who reads a textbook just because I want to understand something.

Ask @EastCoast NPZ he lived there

It’ll be gone in 12 days

@Maestrobjwa I really hope this doesn’t cross a line. What I am about to say comes from a place of caring and compassion not derision. And while I am not a psychiatrist I am a sociologist and I stayed at a holiday inn express once so consider my suggestion... Stop worrying about what someone thinks of Ji. Stop worrying about what they think of you. Stop worrying about if it’s going to snow. Stop worrying about defending how you worry. Stop worrying about worrying. Just stop worrying. Find something you enjoy that brings you peace in the moment and do that more. If you have anxiety I seriously suggest you not invest your emotions in something that is unpredictable and you have no control in and is guaranteed to disappoint you 99% of the time! That’s a really bad idea. Do things that give you agency over your emotions. Life’s too short to torture yourself. Plenty of other people will do that for you!

The snow is a big part but it’s also really nice here in the summer when it’s 92 degrees near 95 and I’m 83 with a cool breeze. I’m closer to outdoor activities I like here. I also don’t mind the drive. It’s time to meditate, reflect, and decompress. Sometimes get caught up on news or make phone calls. It’s productive. I could work up here but I like what I’m doing working with inner city kids. I don’t know if I’ll have the energy to do it forever but for now it works.

Me too

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/ all of Gary Grey’s discussions the week of Jan 7 1996

2018

I am with you. On a side note... something I've noticed in recent years (last 6 winters really) is that we go LOOOOONG stretches without any snow...even nickel and dime type stuff when the pattern isn't right. Last year was just awful in EVERY way but those actually do happen once a decade or so where the pattern is just god awful in the PAC and Atlantic and its a no hope total dud winter everywhere. But across the whole of the last 6 years we only get any snow at all during good patterns. We have still had a decent number or snowstorms during that time...but what we are missing are the smaller nickel and dime storms that used to hold us over between warning level events. Lately we need a really good pattern to score and the rest of the time we dont even get a lucky front end 1-3" or a 2" clipper or some fluke 1-2" on the backside of a cutter or some anafront wave. All those insignificant events that used to at least make it feel like winter while we waited for the perfect pattern to deliver a warning level event.

The block is 12 hours old and already there is a chorus line ready to declare bust.

I stayed at a holiday inn express once

so long as we're still chasing ghosts at 180 hours away who cares...but once things start to get "real" and we have a real storm thread that's when we need him to behave

I feel like I need another shower after watching that game.

Guidance is hinting at a bit of an inverted trough near the area on Tuesday. Some places could get some nice bands of snow showers with that. Right now the placement would favor just to our northeast. Climo says that’s more likely. But it’s close enough to point out. You never know.

Which storm recently was supposed to be a snowstorm? I must have missed that.

I dunno the euro has been a big red flag to me. I’ve never really gotten invested in this. Comparing the runs at 12 and 18z the euro made sense. The upper low keeps trending further and further NW. There really wasn’t much of a surface wave along the coast until close to our latitude. That band of heavy previp all the way from the coast wrapped around the upper low looked less likely then the split due to weak to almost non existent forcing in between the developing coastal wave and the upper low. The NAMs now look like the euro. The precip shield blossoms just to our north as the coastal finally deepens enough to produce better moisture transport and lift but we needed the quick thump snow idea. Maybe if we see the surface system trend more amplified sooner or the h5 more elongated towards the coast and less consolidated. Right now there is a big area with not much mechanism to get lift in between and that’s where we are.

Whose house has the snow magnet near the northern tip of Fairfax County?