psuhoffman

The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days.

@Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE 3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out.

It’ll be gone in 12 days

Upstairs is fun for a while but blue without blue makes me red

@Maestrobjwa I really hope this doesn’t cross a line. What I am about to say comes from a place of caring and compassion not derision. And while I am not a psychiatrist I am a sociologist and I stayed at a holiday inn express once so consider my suggestion... Stop worrying about what someone thinks of Ji. Stop worrying about what they think of you. Stop worrying about if it’s going to snow. Stop worrying about defending how you worry. Stop worrying about worrying. Just stop worrying. Find something you enjoy that brings you peace in the moment and do that more. If you have anxiety I seriously suggest you not invest your emotions in something that is unpredictable and you have no control in and is guaranteed to disappoint you 99% of the time! That’s a really bad idea. Do things that give you agency over your emotions. Life’s too short to torture yourself. Plenty of other people will do that for you!

The snow is a big part but it’s also really nice here in the summer when it’s 92 degrees near 95 and I’m 83 with a cool breeze. I’m closer to outdoor activities I like here. I also don’t mind the drive. It’s time to meditate, reflect, and decompress. Sometimes get caught up on news or make phone calls. It’s productive. I could work up here but I like what I’m doing working with inner city kids. I don’t know if I’ll have the energy to do it forever but for now it works.

I feel like a broken record but everything really is progressing in the way we outlined a week ago and is typical of a blocking regime. There has been no degradation of the progression. The only let down is there was hope we “could” score something during the early phase of the blocking with some luck. My optimism for the Jan 15-30 hasn’t waned but waiting sucks. But I do keep having this thought lately...and touched on it with wxusaf earlier, it seems we don’t luck into minor events in decent patterns anymore. Waiting a while into a blocking pattern isn’t unusual. But in the past we usually had minor events along the way. 1995/6 we didn’t have any warning events until Jan 7 and that block established in early December but we had a string of minor events along the way. Lately it feels like we wait around for a perfect setup to get a big storm and otherwise it’s shutout city where we can’t even get a car topper. That makes this harder. Even a couple 1-2” events would probably make the mood more bearable. you are really funny sometimes sometimes

I see nothing wrong with it

May I suggest a different thread

doom scrolling...lots and lots of doomscrolling

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how. The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work. Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.

The ridge is a little west, more a WPO then an EPO...which is "ok" if we have a -NAO.

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years. So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35". By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date. But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO. Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.

Shockingly it trended more amped after everything else went sheared

I was talking about the DC area. I am below climo for up here now anyways and that’s pretty astounding given the AO.

Don’t forget that nice 3-5” event around Jan 20 that year

So long as the AO/NAO stay negative that WPO ridge will put us in the game. But if the NAO/AO flip that epo ridge is centered way too far west. In a +NAO we would need the EPO ridge positively tilted extending into the Yukon not centered through AK.

It’s possible that what happened in November basically doomed us through the first half of either. That was the worst possible pattern imaginable and robbed us of any cold build up on our side of the hemisphere

Don’t use 2m temps in the long range ensembles. Because that still uses the older climo period and because warming will be most pronounced at the surface any outlier members that have a ridge will be a torch and skew the mean. 850 anomalies age a much better indicator at range. That said 12z gefs backed off on the extreme cold of the previous few runs. But it’s still cold. Maybe that’s better.

Loaded question but does your gut say this is just one of those luck things (it has happened before but not often) or possibly portends something more painful wrt a more hostile snow climo now v the past? Of course a little if both can be true.

That was when the euro ran once a day at 12z. So if the euro had a storm on 3 consecutive runs that means it held the look over 3 days. That’s the equivalent of 12 straight runs now that it runs every 6 hours. You considering that?

Every model will likely fail when it’s on its own. A real confident snow signal would be when the majority of all guidance shows it over multiple runs. Grasping at outlier runs (even if it’s the euro) is usually a losing bet.

That’s been my “target” date for over a week. But I won’t deny I was hopeful we would get something before then. The pattern is good enough you would think we would luck into something sooner or later. But the next 7 days looks suppressive and then we need to wait for that NS wave around the 15 to clear and get the gradient south of us probably. Good news is there looks to finally be a gradient lol. So on the one hand things still are progressing well and the cold is coming and around the 20 looks like a great opportunity I’m still getting frustrated we can’t score something with the consistently decent dominant longwave pattern we’ve had since late November. This is bordering on ridiculous that we can’t even seem to sniff a 2-4” type thing in a sustained non hostile pattern. This had not been a shutout look (as bob would say) yet we have been shutout!

The PNA has been positive too. I know people will point out this or that detail that wasn’t perfect but I agree with you. If DC can have a run of -AO +PNA like this and not get any appreciable snow thats pathetic and scary.

It’s the same look on the GEFS and EPS