psuhoffman

First I think people misunderstand when I fret about something. Notice I don’t pitch a fit when a relatively minor event evaporates. I don’t when a setup we knew was iffy falls apart. But when I think something has truly rare potential...a setup we don’t get often...one I don’t want to waste because it might not come again soon...when I actually think we will get a good snowstorm, that’s when I am picky and fret at any little sign it might fall apart. We have more to lose. So me fretting is a GOOD thing. It means Im invested and actually think we will get snow. If I didn’t I wouldn’t care about a slight trend here or there. But we kinda wasted one of these opportunities in December. It underperformed potential. We wasted one this week. So yea this is the 3rd crack at imo a really good high potential event and I’d like to not strike out considering we can go years without getting these kinds of patterns and setups. We can’t afford to waste them. Now as for why suppression is a risk even if smaller then the last few waves. Keep in mind we need suppression. We’re south of the mean storm track when there is none. But too much of a good thing and it’s congrats Richmond. I don’t think this can go too much further but I’d rather not test that theory. The blocking is relaxing but not gone yet. that upper low is a beaut but the spacing is still a little tight. The ridge axis out west is east of the canonical Boise target and positively tilted. That could put pressure on the wave and make it progressive or dig too far into the southeast. The flow to the northeast is also still pretty suppressive. The 50/50 is vacating but the timing is close. It’s not a sure thing. That high in Canada (remnants of the block) is pretty far south. All it would take is for that upper low to take the red track v the green and Baltimore north is smoking citrus whole VA and NC get snow. That doesn’t mean I think that’s happening. I don’t. But it’s the most likely fail so I don’t want to see even a hint of guidance moving that way. Not even a bit. ETA: this panel is absolutely beautiful and rare for an ensemble at 144 but all it would take for a miss to the south is to adjust that to the red circle. Given the trend...48 hours ago that h5 low was up in New England, and we’re not 100% safe from that YET. Frankly 1-2 more adjustments like the last several runs and were in trouble. If we see the euro stabilize tonight and tomorrow with no further shift south (and I mean NONE not this thing we do where we try to ignore or excuse it away like oh it’s just noise) then I will feel a lot better.

Lol I’m not pessimistic. If I didn’t think I had a good chance of actually getting this one I wouldn’t be as nervous wrt what could go wrong. I don’t fret when I know it’s going to fail. It’s when I know a setup has extremely rare potential that doesn’t come along often that it would hurt bad if it fails. Imo the bigger threat to a fail for my location is suppressed. So seeing the eps nudge south again (when frankly I was in the bullseye up here 2 runs ago already) isn’t what I want to see. It just isn’t. Given the seasonal trend why would anyone want to see a south trend when we’re still 130 hours away? So perspective I still am optimistic. But that’s why I don’t want to see any hint at the setup unraveling. Even if it’s just the tiniest little speck of a hint.

Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference. The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo. Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking.

Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great. If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy. I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south. I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south.

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern.

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.

We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good.

After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10. It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year.

If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end.

That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past.

Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm.

Yes please No bamwx tweet for that run????

March forth with confidence

What’s it start with

Euro saw the storm as soon as it came in day 10 range. It was iffy on temps for a couple runs though. But it was pretty locked in on the general setup and track from day 10 all the way in. Had one hiccup run that gave us northerners a scare but that was it.

Next maybe your posts...

@Ji you know there are always things that could go wrong. I guess the most obvious is the flow over the NE doesn’t relax enough and the WAA wave gets suppressed then the coastal develops too slow. Secondary development is always tricky. But this has a lot more going for it then against it. BTW word of advice. Don’t set your bar at hecs. But also when evaluating the setup each run weight the guidance according to their results and performance. Euro/Eps is the baseline. Then adjust using other guidance but don’t over weight the gfs. It shouldn’t get any more weight (frankly less) that most of the other ancillary guidance available. We way over weight it because of its prevalence.

No so if we fail you should definitely be sacrificed

Sorry I can break it down This Run Eased Nearer Direction

Trend

Anyone curious what I thought of the gfs

Trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend

what did I miss? @Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout. Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after.

There is a lot more that could go right

2016 was the last time we saw this level of agreement in the eps at this range. Even the control looks like a carbon copy wrt axis of snow as the eps mean. Uncanny