psuhoffman

The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust

@frd eps isn’t warm Imo that look is going to press the cold and suppress the SE ridge. There is no way we are very warm for long with that look. We will want the boundary not far to our south otherwise that would be a cold dry look.

Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given.

Yuck. It’s not that it’s north it’s late. Doesn’t get the coastal going until too late for us. Luckily the rgem doesn’t agree.

It has a progressive bias with the features in the PAC that will be critical to our storm. It’s slowly correcting less progressive each run.

Ignore it. Seriously. Unless the other better guidance goes that way...and even then I’d only buy it because they did. The gfs has been adding more confusion and noise then clarity for a while. Btw just saw the end of the rgem. Do people realize how good that was about to get. The ccb is exploding right over us and there is a lot of energy still to roll through. That was about to get GOOD.

What’s that word again?

N VA gets 10-12” lol

Agree. Wrt 2010 it was after the initial WAA precip during the lull before the coastal ccb blew up. Just a few sleet showers during the lull. It’s not so much south as suppressed. But the two correlate. I want an amped up STORM!!! Heavy precip. Big totals somewhere. Death bands to analyze. Even if this amps up too much and we flip we would get a heavy WAA thump first because to displace the locked in cold would take some impressive WAA. So it wouldn’t be a non event. This is preference but I would take a more dynamic event and risk mixing over a weaker mundane event. That’s the rgem. It uses the rgem to 48 then ggem after. It never changed when the rgem extended to 84.

Very very true.

Exactly. It’s typical to mix during the dry slot because the dry slot typically corresponds to the mid level warning cutting off the intense WAA lift and with less intense precip you can’t mix out the warm pockets. That’s typical. It’s different from a solution that shows a legit flip during the heavy WAA precip or a track so far north we miss the deform on the back.

Nam is likely too north with that feature but even if that’s the case look at the mid level winds and h5 track. That’s the northern extent you’re looking at there and it’s about to pivot back southeast. Look at the last 2 frames you can see it happening in WV.

Even that gfs gave us 4-8” from the wrap around from DC north so... looking at the fgen and 850 winds at 84 hrs and seeing that band running along the PA line back into WV starting to pivot and develop south in WV in response to the upper level low catching up...I think that was going to pivot slowly across N VA and MD in the next 12 hours had that run continued.

I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture.

5” on the ground then some sleet and that was about to crash and start dumping again as the slp was captured and tucking and the h5 was very amplified and about to pass into VA. The ccb was about to light up

That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what.

Don’t ever use gfs thermals. On second thought just don’t ever use the gfs.

I’m not predicting this continues to sink south. If I had to bet the euro is close to latching on and maybe adjusts north some at the last minute and we see the typical result and you all laugh at me. That’s the most likely outcome Imo. But I see very little chance this misses us north. There is too much cold and suppression in front of it. So I’d rather see guidance more v less amped.

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore? More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet. Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave? If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots. But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too. Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.

Ugh. That’s not good for up here. I need tucked into the coast to get big totals. But I totally get why you would love that look. That’s the perfect track for you. It’s just unfortunate we don’t share the same climo on coastals. It’s almost impossible for us both to Jack from a coastal because to get the deform NW of the fall line in MD you need the low close enough that’s it’s a problem for the eastern shore.

Big decrease here

Looks a lot like the 12z op euro. Coincidentally I’m sure.

The flow is more suppressive and its mid winter not Dec. I don’t see that happening again. If we get the game time and it’s close I could see the deform setting up slightly north like often happens but it’s unlikely to shift like 100 miles it anything. I think the north bumps will be minor this time.

Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol.