psuhoffman

I’m not freaking out yet. But I’m telling you this isn’t cutting. The flow is way too suppressive. It’s just odd because I feel like every run people are rooting for a more suppressed south solution because their focused too much on staying all snow. Yes a more amplified wave introduces mixing issue to 95. But it also introduces huge upside potential. Who cares if it mixes if you get 10-20”! A weaker less amplified wave reduces mixing but opens the door to no one getting huge totals and possibly the northern areas getting screwed. So each run I see a less amplified system I cringe while others celebrate. Lol

Maybe...but up here the coastal is even more critical because I doubt the WAA ends up being much this far north. I need that deform band to set to north because south will do a lot better from part 1. I suspect Sunday night DC could have 6-8” and I’ll be sitting on 2” of pixie dust up here waiting impatiently for that deform band to come north.

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed.

North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust.

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping

Frankly the gfs has caved as much as I expected it too until very late. The differences left imo are from its errors with resolving the thermals and that’s not going away.

Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas.

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading.

It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully

It also insists on being wrong a whole lot too so you have that going for you.

I think it will warm some in the dryslot when the lower levels lose saturation...but not to that extent. And temps will crash when the ccb gets going.

Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard. There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding.

@Cashtown_Coop I am pretty sure State College will be well northwest of any bullseye. You are in the game...but I am even SLIGHTLY nervous about a suppressed outcome here. As usual, the GFS is adding more noise then it is helping. We would probably have a more accurate perception of what this storm is likely to do if the GFS simply didn't exist at all.

east of the bay is gonna be tough...when the low gets captured off the delmarva thats a long time under an easterly fetch. But I think its likely you get a nice WAA thump and then can catch some of the CCB if the storm slides more east then NE at the end. But I kinda doubt it stays totally 100% snow over there. But it rarely does even in the big ones.

If that deform band actually does setup right over us and stall for 18 hours like that yes we will. That band will juice up some imo and the ratios under that will be very high.

Ya'll are amateurs at worrying about the fringe. I will be all over it when a bad run comes out we need to worry about a good ol fringing. NAM/RGEM both looked good. If you look at the h5 on the NAM, its closed, amplifying, and headed right for VA. It's maybe even better then the h5 look on the euro at the same time. The low is at the same spot. That is going to capture and tuck just east of OC. Both NAM/RGEM would have been really good runs if they continued. Probably very close to the euro, maybe even a slightly quicker capture and tuck which is good.

The upper low is in the process of capture on both the NAM and RGEM...the low is likely to move NNE then tuck NNW a bit from there and end up just east of the Delmarva. You can see the weakness to the north in the isobars, especially on the RGEM but its hinted on the NAM also.

RGEM shifted a bit south too

fixed

It really should be looked at in 2 parts.... this is the WAA wave This is the coastal CCB

Were you here in Manchester for that storm? Do you know what the total here was?

I almost made a post comparing this setup to that storm earlier today...there are some differences...its a lot colder to start..we wasted a lot of the waa precip at the front end because temps were like 36 degrees. There is also more of a lag between the upper levels and the surface because this is a miller b and that was a miller a so there will be more dry slot lull with this. That storm the deform got going right behind the waa with no lull. But the eventually coastal features look very similar and BTW models didn't pick up on that crazy deform with 2006 until inside 24 hours.

EPS mean The totals are muted some by 11/50 members by my count that are suppressed. I only count a few members that miss DC to the north with heavy snow. So this is a VERY good spot to be right now...but still...suppressed is the bigger threat then north. If we ignored the GFS completely that would probably be more apparent lol. And again...I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED...just saying if it somehow falls apart thats the way. This isn't cutting.

The EPS bullseyes our area...so its a very good run...but it definitely backed off on intensity a bit so the top end potential came down some. But were still talking a 12"+ type storm possibly here in the max zone...but the crazy ridiculous 20" or even 30" idea is fading a bit. NOT saying that is unexpected and I definitely take what it is selling.

similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal. 90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event.