psuhoffman

It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this... that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down. But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast. Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo. So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range. Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north.

You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch. The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little.

There was a lot of water content in that storm.

You really want to go there? I’m just showing the trend across guidance is shifting south. Hopefully not too far south but this wave is starting out a lot further north so I do think there is a limit to how suppressed it gets. But we fall into the trap of trying to pull details we know aren’t possible to see at range. All we can say is the setup is there for a snowstorm along the east coast next weekend.

Trend last 3 GEPS

Trend last 3 gefs

2018 was impressive. We had snowcover for almost a week in late March. That’s crazy.

I did earlier. You wouldn’t like it so much. Kinda screwed N of Philly.

Shadow zone downslope east of the ridges. In very marginal events every little bit matters.

I think the signal for a significant event there is real. I was off by 3 days from 3 weeks lol. It’s really a redo of the setup Thursday but with a slightly more amplified wave and a slightly more relaxed flow over the NE. But yea we can’t lock in any details yet. It could end up Richmond or Boston...or maybe it’s finally our turn.

Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months.

March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block.

Looks like euro control run

Thanks for the reminder lol. The eps has a tendency to skew towards the mean for any given pattern. In fairness when storms actually hit we do beat those maps. When we get on a heater some years we crush those 10 day means. But it’s been a long time we’ve been underperforming patterns.

When even dr no says yes...if we still fail...

Ya you have just been a while. That’s typically when they really happen.

I’m getting pretty frustrated but I’ll never stop tracking.

Signs increasing the NAO tanks again in 10-15 days.

It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US.

Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range

@losetoa6 I got 30” from one of those 2010 storms on 1.5 qpf!

That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias.

GEPS loves that threat too. Gefs is more north (good!!!!!)

This is the mean for the whole storm. You need to use the 72 hour snow mean to capture it all because there are some timing differences and some members have the secondary stall and linger.

Just once...