psuhoffman

dunno I'm kinda slow

I hope this one doesn't adjust as far north...I think 95 is in better shape here...by 72 the euro wasnt THAT far south and this time the max is a little south of DC. The last few times DC was already kinda hangin by a thread by 72 hours. Plus there is some legit cold in the pattern now. I am willing to take a good but not great snow up here to get DC/Baltimore to finally jack.

Remind me again...where has the maximum ended up compared to where the Euro had it 72 hours out?

What you didnt want to read the next 3 pages about that?

Is it a good thing when it gets confusing keeping up with all the different threat threads?

The euro has been a little too far south all winter...this is PERFECT where it is now for an eventual DC to Baltimore jack!

it comes north but the heavy snow is central VA. But we get a decent snow from the second wave. It's a nice storm for the whole area but it's best down in central VA. BTW kinda reminds me of that one Feb 1996 event that was kinda like that.

It’s 8-10 from all 3 waves. And I’ll take it lol. But there are some periods of light snizzle that wouldn’t be accumulating snow but add up to an extra .1-.2 qpf and inflate that a tiny itsy bit. Still a good run. Not arguing that at all.

It’s 8–10 NW of 95 from all 3 waves. There are some snizzle and light mix periods in there that added up tack on an extra .1-.2 qpf that wouldn’t be accumulating snow. But I am not arguing it wasn’t a good run. I was just describing it verbatim. Ji can let you know how it sucks! Btw the weekend wave is close. DC is on the edge of a bigger snow. The wave gets it’s act together just a bit too late. Yea I know sounds familiar but one of these will work out eventually.

When are you posting about the ultimate fail scenario where wave 1 is dry and wave 2 stays south You just did it for me. Thanks

I mean it cut my qpf by about 50% with wave 1 so...that seems like a lot to me

UK weekend wave is a general 1-3" snowfall across the area. Pretty weak wave but colder then other guidance.

UK looks a lot colder for the weekend threat in the mid levels...

UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area.

UKMET looks worse for wave 1 but it might be better for the follow up wave Friday...looks like a lot more energy left behind. Wave 1 is still a nice little snow but it cut back on qpf a bit.

UK is south and a lot weaker/dryer with the wave so far out to 60

it jacks DC with the narrow banding of snow Wed/Thursday. Then misses south with the follow up wave.

if we can get a 1994 replay but with some blocking to shift the boundary like 50-100 miles south...imagine

CMC looks decent for the first wave Wed into Thursday for the DC area but misses south with the follow up wave, nice snow in central/southern VA with that.

pretty big ice storm as is...but like the trend. It's one more small adjustment from a big snow event or at least Snow/Ice

I feel a weenie gfs run in progress

I am totally cool with it...and I am ok with a smaller snow event from this... but I think some in and around the DC/Baltimore area feel they are due a major snow event and are chasing a flush hit. If this turns into a weak wave where the jack is only 2-4" they won't be happy even if they are that jack...so for them seeing the ICON trend towards a less significant event overall was a fail...even if it had the jack zone over them. For people that would be totally happy with a 3-4" all snow event...it was a great run. For people that want a bigger event it was a move in the wrong direction (away from the euro more significant camp). Just a matter of perspective

What's amazing is the NAM goes off the reservation (compared to all other guidance) by only hour 24. Notice its way further north with the wave tomorrow and that simply carries through the run to the next wave. All other guidance has the snow with that next wave running just north of the PA line into central PA tomorrow while the NAM has it up in northern PA. That is a crazy difference for only 24 hour lead times.

RGEM looked like it was setting up something big after though...wave really organizing to our southwest with the thermal boundary just to our south...was likely to be "something" after.

ICON with a big ice storm over the weekend to turn our snow into a glacier.